Background:
Pakistan is embroiled in conflict. To the northwest, the nation shares a very porous border with volatile Afghanistan. A Soviet invasion in 1980 developed into a cold-war sparring with a proxy, as the US armed nationalist warriors called the mujahideen to fight the Soviets. Pakistan also engaged, and when the Soviets withdrew in 1989, provided quiet support for a nationalistic group known as the Taliban to consolidate power. For years, the Taliban, building their own repressive governance, sheltered Osama bin laden and his growing Al-qaeda network - which provoked an attack by the United States in late 2001. Pakistan's response through the next eleven years, ranging from indifference to quiet support of the repression and violence of both the Taliban and Al-qaeda found itself increasingly mired in the conflict, as its own tribal groups along Afghanistan's border embraced many aspects of Islamic extremism.
To the east, Pakistan has likewise mired itself in conflict with India over a supposedly strategic area high in the Himalaya mountains, known as Kashmir. Here for over 60 years, the two nations have set soldiers in the snow and cold, clashing intermittently over the rights to the hostile landscape. As noted in Wikipedia, "India and Pakistan have fought at least three wars over Kashmir, including the Indo-Pakistani Wars of 1947, 1965 and 1999. India and Pakistan have also been involved in several skirmishes over the Siachen Glacier." Pakistan fought a civil war with an eastern province in 1971, lost, and that province declared itself Bangladesh.
Pakistan and the US have troubled relations that have not improved in the past decade. The US, heavily engaged in Afghanistan and conducting a greatly expanded (and hated) drone program across the country and the border areas of Pakistan killed nearly two dozen Pakistani soldiers in November 2011 in a case of mistaken identity. In response, Pakistan suspended the use of its roads for US/NATO resupplying their armies.
As the influential Atlantic magazine wrote in a piece, December, 2011, titled "The Ally From Hell" Pakistan lies. It hosted Osama bin Laden (knowingly or not). Its government is barely functional. It hates the democracy next door. It is home to both radical jihadists and a large and growing nuclear arsenal (which it fears the U.S. will seize). Its intelligence service sponsors terrorists who attack American troops. With a friend like this, who needs enemies? ... Much of the world, of course, is anxious about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and for good reason: Pakistan is an unstable and violent country located at the epicenter of global jihadism, and it has been the foremost supplier of nuclear technology to such rogue states as Iran and North Korea. It is perfectly sensible to believe that Pakistan might not be the safest place on Earth to warehouse 100 or more nuclear weapons.
It is a difficult situation - to state the obvious - because along with its sizable Islamic-extremist factions and duplicity by the country's intelligence and military forces, Pakistan has a substantial literate, English-speaking, and likeable population engaged in world trade, sports, and an entrepreneurial spirit. Indeed the country is a member of the British Commonwealth (though not surprisingly, left in 1972 and returned in 1989).
The new Prime Minister
Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, is now the country's new Prime Minister. Yet exemplifying the turmoil at the highest levels of leadership, "Ashraf became Pakistan's prime minister 10 days ago after Yousuf Raza Gilani was disqualified from office by the Supreme Court. Gilani was found in contempt of court after refusing to write a letter to authorities in Switzerland, asking them to re-open corruption proceedings against President Asif Ali Zardari."
There is, then, a revolving door of leadership, another sign of splintered loyalties and stress in the country. But because of the nation's strategic importance - if nothing else those 100 nuclear weapons, and a latent ability to wreak havoc in a troubled region of the world - no country interested in regional stability dares disengage.
Re-opening supply lines
Perhaps the occasion of a new Prime Minister was the right time for the US to apologize publicly for the errant strike. Perhaps, in turn, the apology gave cover for the new PM to accept the apology in a public arena, and reopen supply lines for continued funds and trade. But how long this latest truce and trade will last is anyone's guess.
What is ahead for this nation in conflict, both within itself and with neighbors?
1 comment:
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