Egypt resets

Egypt, with 90 million people is the most populous Arab nation in the Middle East (not to be confused with Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation, and located in the Southeast Asia); strategically important, Egypt is sovereign over the Suez Canal; politically important, it is one of just two Arab nations that has established a peace treaty with Israel. And it is in turmoil.

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The iconic image of Egypt with its mysterious past ... (photo from www.alumni.ucdavis.edu)

Egypt, its population packed along the critical Nile River ... (unattributed graphic)

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Egypt's Tahrir Square in Cairo, filled once again with protestors this time wanting their democratically elected President out, just as two years ago when they demanded an end of Mubarak's rule. (photo by Reuters at International Business Times)

The timeline
Two years ago, President Mubarak was ousted from office after nearly 30 years of rule - much of it conducted in autocratic fashion - when the Arab Spring movement swept through Tunisia, Egypt, and into most of the Arab world. As we know, Syria's protests morphed into a tragic and bitter civil war which has killed nearly 100,000 and displaced millions. In Egypt, the Army kept a lid on the tensions, oversaw elections and an Islamist from the most organized of the factions - the Muslim Brotherhood - took office.

President Morsi, in power for the past year, unfortunately spent most of his time and energy consolidating power, ramming through a Islamic-leaning constitution, at one time announcing near dictatorial powers only to have to backtrack amidst eruptions of protests, and most recently appointing Adel al-Khayat, "a member of a radical Islamist party linked to a massacre that killed 58 tourists in Luxor in 1997" to the very post of Luxor governor! According to the France24 article of June 23, 2013, "his appointment prompted uproar in Luxor, in the southern heartlands of al-Gamaa support. Workers in the tourist industry around its pharaonic temples feared the new governor could put off visitors at a time when business is already poor due to continued unrest following the 2011 revolution." The irony is that within a week of the uproar of his appointment by Morsi, Adel al-Khayat resigned.

Artifacts and sites can be found all along the Nile. Luxor is south and upstream from the capital, Cairo. (graphic from UK Daily mail )

The dramatic transition

Similar to the recent demonstrations in Turkey which were met with a somewhat hysterical outburst from its Prime Minister, the swelling protests against Egypt's Morsi throughout June were met with denial and obstinancy. Finally, the Egyptian military gave an ultimatum to Morsi of 48 hours to recognize and address protest leaders, but Morsi refused to engage.

P.J. Crowley, former United States Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, recently interviewed by CBS regarding the ultimatum, "if something has to give, it's going to be Morsi. Though he won his presidency in a fair and free election, he's lost legitimacy with much of Egypt's population. According to Crowley, the Egyptian military already has a roadmap that includes a technocratic government, a rewritten constitution, and early elections. The reaction of the Muslim Brotherhood is another thing, and Morsi himself has said that he's willing to die for democracy in Egypt. "This could get ugly and that has implications, particularly in terms of the Egyptian economy," said Crowley."

On Wednesday, July 3, the Egyptian army moved - deposing Morsi and sweeping up a number of Muslim Brotherhood leaders. Hundreds are now detained. By Friday, while most of the populace is behind the Army's move, Morsi supporters and the Muslim brotherhood organization have resisted, with over three dozen dead in a variety of protests.

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The army puts on a show of force, Muslim Brotherhood followers are incensed, many of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders are detained, but most of Egypt's population look for a second chance at a more secular constitution and fresh elections. (photo from Huffington post)

Questions

What legitimizes a government? Elections have slowly become a first component of what legitimizes a government, at least in the eyes of the other nations of the world. But elections alone have been shown in numerous situations that they alone do not at all guarantee a democratic responsive government.

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Enthusiasm ran high in 2012 as Egyptians voted in what were considered free and fair elections. (photo from Voice of America News)

What if a leader gains power by the ballot, then proceeds to shut the door on further adherence to the framework of laws that brought it into power? Hitler came to power legitimately, then took on dictatorial rule. Lenin came to power via a coup, the Bolsheviks killed the royal family, set up its Communist party with elections - which resulted in just a few years in Stalin's dictatorship. If one looks around the world, a number of countries go through the process of holding elections though making sure both the candidacies and real power are limited. Iran, for example, just held an election that produced a new President, but the real leaders remain the behind-the-scene religious scholars.

Iran's former President Ahmadinejad ran the country only with the approval of The Supreme Ruler, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other religious heavyweights. (photo from www.foreignpolicy.com)

And in a rather blunt opinion piece from a respected counter-terrorism website regarding the 2012 Egyptian elections, we read, "Prior to the presidential elections, it was revealed how Egypt's Islamists viewed democratic elections as an obligatory form of "holy war." Then, any number of Islamic clerics, including influential ones, declared that it was mandatory for Muslims to cheat during elections—if so doing would help Islamist candidates win; that the elections were a form of jihad, and those who die are "martyrs" who will attain the highest levels of paradise. Top Islamic institutions and influential clerics, such as Yusuf al-Qaradawi, issued fatwas decreeing that all Muslims were "obligated" to go and vote for those candidates most likely to implement Sharia law, with threats of hellfire for those failing to do so. The point was simple: democracy, elections, voting, even the individual candidates, were all means to an end—the establishment of Sharia law." http://www.investigativeproject.org/3665/muslim-brotherhood-democracy-slapping-stabbing

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Photo and caption from the Agence France-Presse, "Influential Muslim cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi on Saturday issued a religious decree, or fatwa, urging Egyptians to support overthrown Islamist president Mohamed Morsi who was toppled by the army on Wednesday." This individual is the same who called on Egyptian islamists to support Morsi last year.

One has to ask the question however, is Sharia law compatible with democracy? Would those laws if ever enacted, ebb and flow depending on the will of the governed?

When is a coup, not a coup?

The US seems to find itself without a coherent response to the latest change in government. The Obama administration has issued the usual "deep concerns," "urges all parties to respect each other" and the other bromides of diplomatic-speak, but that's about it. Even labeling the action of the past two days as a coup, which would result by law in placing a freeze on military aid to Egypt, is unlikely. In the words of two US lawmakers, we gain some insight into what "real democracy" might look like, "Republican Rep. Ed Royce of California and Democrat Eliot Engel of New York issued a joint statement that criticized Morsi for not embracing "inclusiveness, compromise, respect for human and minority rights and a commitment to the rule of law. ... Like Obama, they urged the Egyptian military "to exercise extreme caution moving forward and support sound democratic institutions through which the people and future governments can flourish." (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=198939519)

Teatree is sympathetic to the Army preventing freely-elected Morsi from highjacking Egypt's quest for true democracy. We should soon see however, whether the Army's intent of giving Egypt a second chance - new elections, new writing of laws, etc, comes to pass. After a year of frittering away an opportunity for good governance, new elections must be organized all the while attempting to tamp down a new round of explosive violence and resistance by the Muslim Brotherhood's supporters. One Egyptian was quoted in a recent article saying that this latest drama was not a definitive failure of the first, and the clear beginning of a second chapter, rather just steps along the way of one long difficult revolution.

Besides the great secular/islamist governance divide, are there other issues?

The real loss during Morsi's year of rule was his neglect of fashioning economic growth and broadening of its prospects, while attempting to force Sharia law and islamic piety. Egypt is truly a basket case economically, propped up by several countries, and world financial institutions.

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Egypt cannot feed itself. As the photo shows and as an article in the ethiopianreview.com describes it, "Egypt’s slide from breadbasket of the eastern Mediterranean to net grain importer is elemental to an economic crisis that threatens to convulse the nation. Complicit, according to economists and farm experts, is an Egyptian government that for years refused to build the infrastructure needed to produce wheat in a cost-effective way; a privatization drive that plundered Egyptian agriculture with ill-advised and often corrupt divestment deals; farmers who sold their fields to property developers or diversified into more profitable crops for export at the expense of grains; and the U.S. government, which promoted sales of American wheat in Egypt rather than encouraging greater self-reliance."

The perilous status of women in Egypt. Once again during this latest round of protests, there were instances of gang rapes of women, mainly to teach them a lesson about their place. One can hardly imagine a happy outcome or future of Egypt in any case when half its population is apparently fair game for males - whether due to lust, to make some political statement with a western female reporter, or merely to restore "honor" due to some perceived breach of such. Muslim countries simply have a long ways to go in this regard, and Teatree believes it important to step out on a limb with a generality here that nevertheless is true.

Harassment of Egyptian women seems to be tolerated, amusing, and widespread. (Photo:Ahram Online archive)

Suddenly, Egypt is in turmoil, and the road ahead seems to be a long one before any semblance of a modern, humane life is the norm.

UN declaration on ending violence against women reveals challenges

UN declarations are usually not the stuff of headlines amid the clamor of crises and elections. However, a simple declaration made earlier this week at the UN deserves some consideration.

The UN is headquartered in New York city ...

The basic story as reported by Radio Free Europe goes this way, "Muslim and Western countries have approved a new United Nations declaration aimed at combatting violence against women and girls. The nonbinding declaration, adopted by consensus by the UN Commission on the Status of Women, says that violence against females cannot be justified or ignored by any "custom, tradition, or religious consideration." The declaration also calls on countries to provide girls and women with sexual education and contraceptives. The declaration was approved on March 15 despite reservations from the Roman Catholic Church, Iran, Russia, and other states (including Syria no less! - Teatree)." The full text - it is quite the document - can be found here http://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/csw57/CSW57_agreed_conclusions_advance_unedited_version_18_March_2013.pdf

The UN Commission on the Status of Women (CSW) was established in 1946, with the US' recently-bereaved First Lady, Eleanor Roosevelt, making a keynote speech. This year's 57th session was held March 4-15, with the chair and vice chair being women from Liberia and the Philippines. The commission is made up of 45 members among the larger UN body, with the intent of making the group geographically representative. See the UN CSW website for further details ... http://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/index.html#about

Marjon Kamara, from Liberia, is chair of the UN CSW's 56th and 57th Commissions.

The reactions and reservations, as well as the realities of women's rights around the world are worth examining. The Catholic Church was, of course, concerned over the twining of "contraceptives" and "religious consideration." Russia, as always, was concerned about any declaration not acknowledging the ultimate sovereignty of the state. Egypt's reaction was clearly the most over-the-top, as representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood condemned the declaration, as reported by the Guardian, UK, newspaper, "calling it a decadent and destructive document that undermined Islamic ethics by calling for women to work, travel and use contraception without their husbands' permission.

In a 10-point memorandum, the brotherhood also criticised the declaration for granting women sexual freedom, allowing Muslim women to marry non-Muslims, granting equal rights to homosexual people, and allowing wives full legal rights to take their husbands to court for marital rape. "This declaration, if ratified, would lead to complete disintegration of society, and would certainly be the final step in the intellectual and cultural invasion of Muslim countries, eliminating the moral specificity that helps preserve cohesion of Islamic societies," the brotherhood 's statement claimed."

The reaction among brave Egyptian women was one of public outrage, which as we all have come to know, is a dangerous position to take in Egyptian society. Women here in Cairo protesting the Muslim Brotherhood for its statement

As one contemplates the issues of women's rights and quality of life, the realities are quite sobering.

As the recent rape/murder case in India illustrates, the subservient status of women in that country's varied cultures is a deadly one. Just this week, another woman tourist in India believed she had to jump out a third-story window to escape the advances of the hotel owner. On the other hand, Indian lawmakers have taken up the issue with some force - death penalty for rape if it severely injures, a 20-year upper limit instead of seven year sentence for any rape conviction, stalking and voyeurism addressed, and age of consent raised to 18 from 16. See article Indian parliament to debate bill allowing death penalty for rapists

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Indian women protest against recent case of violence against their gender.

Sex trafficking and virtual slavery in many countries, but often associated with South Asia and some eastern European nations; the myth of a cure for AIDs by sleeping with a virgin remains alive across Africa; genital mutilation in various cultures - all are the extreme negatives.

A billboard in South Africa tells a sorry story

And we've yet to address the positives - improving women's educational opportunities, independent decision making, programs that provide economic opportunities for raising families (the issuing of micro-loans has been a major advance). Schools and education seem to be key, and just this week, Malala Yousufzai, the young Pakistani woman who was shot by the Taliban for advocating for girls schools, has returned to classes (but in the UK ...), see USA today article here

Ms Yousufzai, happy to be a student, considering being able to learn "a gift."

Teatree believes this broad stream of issues truly is a newsworthy global concern.

Israeli-Hamas truce, Egypt's Morsi takes the spotlight

The geography of the Middle East, much of which is in turmoil of one kind or another.

The conflict between Israel and the Islamist movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip cooled off with an announcement of a truce. 166 Palestinians and six Israelis died in the 8 days, and both sides claimed victory of sorts. As one report describes the aftermath, "Israel said it reached its objectives, while Hamas claimed victory because Israel didn't make good on threats to send ground troops into the territory, as it had done four years earlier. Israel's air force carried out some 1,500 strikes on Hamas-linked targets, while Gaza militants fired roughly the same number of rockets, including some targeting the Israeli heartland cities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem for the first time."

The report continues, "The truce is to lead to a new border deal for Gaza, with Egypt hosting indirect talks between Israel and Hamas. Israel has shunned Hamas as a terrorist group and refuses to negotiate with it directly. Israeli demands that Hamas halt weapons smuggling into Gaza, while Hamas seeks free movement for people and goods in and out of Gaza."

Palestinian fishermen launch from the Gaza strip

Sometime soon, Palestinian fishermen will be able to go out to sea six miles instead of three (Israel watches the sea and fishing vessels closely to prevent arms being smuggled into the Gaza Strip). Farmers will soon be able to plant and reap closer to the border with Israel, utilizing some of the 300-meter wide security strip once imposed on by Israel. Israel, for its part, pounded Hamas infrastructure, and has the opportunity to draw up more agreements regarding the sealing and interdiction of smuggling tunnels rife along the Egyptian/Gaza border.

Farmers near the Israeli-Gaza border will soon be able to expand into acres closer to the fence itself

One of Israel's top objectives is to cut out weapons smuggling from Egypt to the Gaza strip. Many of the airstrikes during the 8-day conflict targeted tunnels such as these.

The details of a new border deal at the same time brings Egypt back into the spotlight. Since Israel considers Hamas a terrorist organization, it will not deal with Hamas directly. Egypt plays the 3rd party communicator with Israel on Hamas's behalf, but has new challenges of its own.

New powers announced by Egypt's President Morsi

One day after the truce announcement, Egypt's new President, Mohammed Morsi, raised domestic and international concern with his own announcement. As a Washington Post article describes, "Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi took extensive new powers for himself Thursday, freeing his decisions from judicial review and ordering retrials for former top officials, including ex-president Hosni Mubarak.

The decree, issued a day after Morsi won international praise for fostering a cease-fire in Gaza, appears to leave few if any checks on his power. The president said all of the decisions he has made since he took office in June — and until a new constitution is adopted and a parliament elected — were final and not subject to appeal or review. The announcement, read on state television by Morsi’s spokesman and broadcast repeatedly with accompanying nationalistic songs, shocked many in this struggling country, and street protests quickly erupted."

Egypt's President Morsi claiming his new announced unlimited power

Brave Egyptian women part of street protests ...

A BBC article analyzes the move this way, "The president said he was acting to protect the revolution. Specifically, he wanted to prevent the courts from disbanding, for a second time, the assembly that is writing the Egyptian constitution. There were reports that the courts might be about to do this.

That could seriously derail the transition to democracy, further delaying new parliamentary elections, which could deter Egypt's political leaders from taking tough decisions while they wait for the vote. ... They were not direct political appointments, but many Egyptians suspect they are still loyal to the old regime. The same applies to the prosecutor-general, whom the president sacked. His replacement moved quickly to re-open criminal investigations into the former president, his family, and former regime officials.

On both of these issues, President Mursi will have the support of many Egyptians. But it is the way he has gone about it that has aroused such fury. The president failed to consult with other political forces, acting in an autocratic manner reminiscent of his predecessor. Indeed, he has taken more power than Hosni Mubarak ever claimed, with almost no constraints at all. And his attempt to sideline the judiciary is reminiscent of the early power-grab of the Free Officers in 1954, the beginning of what is now being seen as six decades of military dictatorship in Egypt.

As a result, many Egyptians fear the real agenda is not to protect the revolution, but to increase the power of President Mursi, and of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist movement from which he comes. In particular, there is an accusation that the underlying aim is to enable the constitutional assembly - currently dominated by Islamists - to write an Islamist constitution for Egypt. That is why President Mursi's move has produced such bitter, and potentially dangerous, divisions in the country."

Egypt's Morsi (right) receives new powers provided by Himself

Egypt's new Pharaoh?

So here we find ourselves, watching to see where "Arab Spring" will take this major Arab power. Perhaps the most provocative words came from Nobel peace prize winner and former U.N. atomic energy agency chief Mohamed El Baradei. He lashed out at the declaration, which effectively puts the president above judicial oversight. "Morsi today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences..."

ElBaradei with his 2005 Nobel Peace Prize is an Egyptian that was recently hoping to lead Egypt himself as part of a secular pro-democracy party.

al Qaeda-Islamist attack on 9/11/12 - just a "bump in the road"?

On September 11, 2012, eleven years after the twin towers attack in New York City, Muslim protests erupted in two Arab countries Egypt and Libya, and nearly two weeks later, had been seen in Tunisia, Morocco, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Gaza, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Lebanon, Greece, and Turkey.

Western Embassies targeted by Muslim protests

The first protests, while genuine and against what the crowds had been told was a film insulting the Prophet Mohammed, were initially described as "spontaneous" though that description quickly lost credibility over the next few days. The remaining protests became more and more clearly understood as being the work of Islamists or governments intent on whipping up anti-Western sentiment in broad terms.

In particular, Lebanon's Hezbollah Islamist leader, Sheikh Nasrallah, was delighted with the opportunity. He called for a week of protests not only against American embassies, but also to press Muslim governments to express their own anger to the US. He branded the video an "unprecedented" insult to Islam - worse, he said, than Salman Rushdie's novel The Satanic Verses and the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, which were published in a Danish newspaper in 2005.

Most sobering, the death toll itself began climbing immediately on September 11 with the killing of the US Ambassador to Libya along with three other American diplomatic staff who had been trapped in the Libyan city of Benghazi. Through today, 30 more have been reported dead: four NATO soldiers in Afghanistan, 15 Pakistanis involved in the protests in that country, and 11 Libyans.

The unrest seems to be subsiding, though Monday, September 24th, a Pakistani lawmaker placed a $100,000 bounty on the head of the alleged filmmaker from California, even as Pakistan's government distanced itself from that lawmaker's call.

The most shocking incident occurred in Libya, where US Ambassador Chris Stevens - a strong supporter of the promises possible within the "Arab Spring" and fluent in Arabic - along with three other of his diplomatic staff were hunted down and killed.

Even in Greece, riot police had to be called out to contain Muslim protests. French and German embassies were also targeted in various countries in the past dozen days.

The fundamental details in this spasm of violence remain disputed

* The US Embassy in Egypt, which had been breached for hours by protestors on September 11, quickly apologized to the crowds for the film. That apology however, was later disputed by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, and later rescinded or "clarified" differently by the White House.

* The "film" was described as being produced by a variety of culprits. One after another, names surfaced as to who was responsible. First, there were reports that it was the work of the infamous Koran-burning pastor from Florida Terry Jones, next by a Coptic Christian, then a Californian named Steve Klein and finally along came another mysterious consultant called Sam Bacile. As a week passed, there were accusations of others being involved, characterized interestingly as a "Jew" or an "evangelical Christian" each increasingly appearing as continuing attempts to provide the right labels to keep the outrage alive.

* Reports after the first few days, however, showed up backing down slightly from the film. For example, the film was described as "a crude effort", then alternatively a homemade video, (which incidentally had been on you-tube for over two months). After a full week since the killings in Libya, and after the media had generated stories by the hundreds accepting the "film" label, the New York Times and the Christian Science Monitor both published articles noting that the word Muhammed was dubbed over in post-production, as were essentially all other offensive references to Islam. Each article questioned whether this film/video with the intent to insult the Prophet was genuine, or had someone doctored it with religious terms for their own purposes.

Nevertheless, the organizers of the protests have carried the day, and the dominant media narrative remains "an insulting film."

US stumbles on reaction

* The White House stuck to the story for several days that the US ambassador was killed by protestors, in spite of numerous claims, including by the Libyan government itself, that the killers were either Islamist militias or an al-Qaeda affiliate - Ansar al-Sharia or Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb - taking advantage of the protests.

* After the evidence grew overwhelming, President Obama vowed that the killers would be brought to justice and that Marines were being sent to bolster security in a number of embassies. Two destroyers were moved towards the Libyan coast.

* Yet after a week of relative silence in the search for those responsible, Libyans themselves took it upon themselves to rush known Islamist militia strongholds in Benghazi and other cities and chased them out at the cost of another eleven dead. Apparently the US, with all its military and intelligence assets could not ferret out what the locals knew, or did not calculate that it was worth the effort to bring them to said justice.

What is next?

The challenge is on for most Arab governments (Iran and Gaza probably the exceptions) to balance the anger whipped up over the film or video, with the responsibility to provide security for Western embassies. For example, Egypt's new President Mohammed Morsi, an Islamist who is Egypt’s first freely elected president said "Expressing opinion, freedom to protest and announcing positions is guaranteed but without assaulting private or public property, diplomatic missions or embassies.”

Protests okay (staged and encouraged) in Muslim countries, along with fatwas, but not free speech in Western countries?

The US administration is under pressure with questions of why more security was not being provided for staff at embassies in volatile nations - reports are that Marines at the Egyptian embassy were not allowed to carry live ammunition.

President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, White House spokesman Jay Carney, have yet to agree on the timetable of events, their policy position, and the importance of future actions

President Obama was under scrutiny by a growing number of journalists for his low-key, and unclear stance regarding the US ambassador killing and response as well as his statement just today. "In the interview itself, Obama was responding when asked if recent events in the Middle East gave him pause for supporting governments that came to power following a wave of regime changes known as the Arab Spring.

He said he has long noted that events were going to be rocky, adding that the question itself ‘‘presumes that somehow we could have stopped this wave of change.’’

‘‘I think it was absolutely the right thing for us to align ourselves with democracy, universal rights. ... But I was pretty certain and continue to be pretty certain that there are going to be bumps in the road because — you know, in a lot of these places — the one organizing principle has been Islam.’

In the next few days, a UN gathering of world leaders in New York City will provide plenty of opportunity for inflaming rhetoric, vague contradictory platitudes, and one might only hope a few more courageous and wise observations of leadership.

Iran's president anticipating his remarks on the world stage ...

Egypt tackles Islamic militants in Sinai peninsula amid the removal of top armed forces generals

Egypt's government, headed by President Mohamed Morsi, moved on two aspects of the nation's security and governance the past week.

Egypt's population lives primarily along the Nile River, but the country controls the strategic and lucrative shipping lanes of the Suez Canal between the Mediterranean and Red Sea, and ostensibly has jurisdiction over the vast Sinai Peninsula

On Sunday, August 12, President Morsi fired (dismissed, sacked, replaced ...)the powerful head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi, and Chief of staff Sami Annan. President Mursi, according to a BBC article, also said a constitutional declaration aimed at curbing presidential powers had been cancelled. He characterized his actions as transitioning to a newer generation of military leaders, itself just part of the natural continuance of the revolution.

Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi (left), new Egyptian President Morsi (center), and Chief of staff Sami Annan (right).

Replacing Tantawi, however, according to the UK Guardian newspaper, is the head of military intelligence, Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi – one of the generals who defended the use of "virginity tests" against female protesters in March 2011.

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is the new head of the Egyptian military and 44th defense minister in the history of the modern Egyptian army since its formation more than 200 years ago. In his mid-50s, he is one of the youngest members of the military council that was previously headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi.

Mursi, elected in June to Egypt's presidency, is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. After the Muslim Brotherhood's preferred candidate, Khairat El-Shater was disqualified from the 2012 presidential election, Morsi, the backup candidate, emerged and eventually won a narrow runoff.

One BBC reporter noted that Egypt's generals had exercised power behind the throne for decades and then exercised it directly in the months since the fall of former Egyptian President (and strong man) Hosni Mubarak, but suggested that "Mr Mursi's opponents may have underestimated him. Egypt's army was unprepared for a recent attack on a security base in the Sinai desert by Islamic militants in which 16 soldiers died. Mr Mursi appears to be seizing on that failure - which shocked ordinary Egyptians - to move against two key members of the high command."

So, we will continue to see how the tense relationship between Egypt's military and the new Islamist government shakes out.

The larger story, perhaps, was an attack in the Sinai Peninsula last week in the small town of Sheikh Zuwaid (see map) in which Islamic militants killed 16 Egyptian border guards and soldiers. As noted above, this clash with some variant of Islamic extremists rattled Egypt's armed forces, and added to the burden of the Egyptian government in in its responsibility to govern the vast desert area that borders both Israel and the Hamas-run Gaza strip.

The Sinai Peninsula is Egypt's but as an aftermath of the war with Israel in 1973, there have been strict limits agreed to between the two countries on what weaponry and military assets the Egyptian armed forces can deploy in this region.

From the Jerusalem Post newspaper, "the perpetrators of [last] Sunday's attack were part of a global jihad terrorist infrastructure operating inside the Sinai that was made up mostly of local Beduin. During the attack, some 35 armed men stormed an Egyptian military base, killing 16 policemen and soldiers.

On Monday, Egypt branded the attackers “infidels” and vowed to launch a crackdown throughout the Sinai. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said on Tuesday that Egypt has enough forces to deal with terrorism in Sinai, responding to suggestions that Israel will consider any Egyptian request to deploy additional military forces in the Sinai. "There are enough forces in Sinai, it's now just a matter of making a decision," he said. Until now, Israel has permitted the Egyptians to deploy about seven battalions in the Sinai, although under the peace treaty the peninsula is meant to remain demilitarized. "The campaign aims at closing all the openings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip that are used in smuggling operations," said the security source."

Egyptian forces began moving in force into the Sinai after consultation with the Israeli government.

According to other reports, the majority of Sinai bedouin clans have endorsed Egypt's move to more robustly police the peninsula. Since the "Arab Spring" revolution in Egypt more than 1 year ago, the military had reduced its actions in and attention to the peninsula, concentrating on Cairo and other population centers. As a result, tribal leaders said there had been a clear upswing in lawlessness and influence by Islamic extremists into the relative vacuum.

While Egypt's move to counter growing extremism in the peninsula is understandable - especially when the rather notorious Islamic Muslim Brotherhood itself is now running the country, a more perplexing move by Egypt also occurred on the border with the Gaza strip.

Smuggling tunnels, apparently looked at with a blind or generous eye by Egypt for decades, were being sealed by the Egyptian army. It underscores a tense relationship that exists with Hamas that rules the narrow strip of land

Tunnels along the border with Gaza are suddenly being sealed off - whether it is a short term show or calculation by the Egyptian government to present a moderate and balanced image, or a message to Hamas that Egypt's generosity cannot be taken for granted is still to be determined.

While Tunisia and Libya have both shown admirable progress in the past 18 months in their respective countries in terms of moderate politics and relatively peaceful transitions, Egypt's many tensions within itself, and with its neighbors are still in play.

Egypt's revolution adrift ...

Egypt's 81 + million population, the most among the Arab nations, lives concentrated in cities, towns, and villages along the Nile River.


The fertile delta of the Nile, as it enters the Mediterranean Sea, is lit up with Egyptian life (Israeli population centers to the right)

It has been nearly 18 months now, since Egypt's revolution and the new slogan, "Arab Spring" emerged. Following closely on Tunisia's popular uprising, Egypt's initial resistance was youth dominated and included the strong presence of women. The huge street protests eventually resulted in the crumbling of support for Hosni Mubarak, the strong man ruler of the country for over 30 years. While Mubarak sat in prison awaiting trial on charges of murder stemming from putting down street protests (plus corruption charges and a number of others), a series of elections promised by the military, were held. A new parliament was elected, dominated by Islamists, most strikingly the Muslim Brotherhood which had been banned under Mubarak and whose ideology raises concerns across the Western world. And now, one of two candidates stand ready to take on the formal reins of power in the next few weeks.

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The formalities of the trial of former President Mubarak, as well as a cohort of relatives and close allies.

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Egyptians in their common dress, watched the trial unfolding on TV.

Last week, the trial of Hosni Mubarak and associates concluded. The verdicts were mixed, pleasing very few it seems. Mubarak was sentenced to life in prison, some police officers were acquitted. One Mubarak son was sentenced to time already served, etc. And a variety of street protests began again - not a bad thing in itself as before the population had little opportunity to express itself.

Many protested against Mubarak getting "only" a life sentence

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Others used the occasion to protest against continued military rule. This man holds a placard with script made of spent bullet cartridges "Down with Military Rule"

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Some, looking ahead, protested against Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq being one of the final two presidential candidates.

Indeed, one of the mysteries of the presidential election is that one of the two runoff candidates is actually Mubarak's former Prime Minister. Who is supporting this man with enough votes to challenge the other candidate, Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi? Regardless, voting for Egypt's President is scheduled to begin June 16, and the odds on favorite is an Islamist.

The next President of Egypt is one of these two men. Ahmed Shafiq, left, or Mahmoud Morsi, right.

A Canadian Free Press article summarizes it this way, "Now Islamists make up a majority in the Egyptian Parliament. Their presidential candidate, Mahmoud Morsi, is an Islamist. The opposition candidate, Ahmed Shafiq, is from the old regime, a military member and a Mubarak look-alike. Corrupted elections fraught with bribes – votes traded for oil, rice and potatoes—brought them about. All are advocates of Islamic Sharia law, a state religious system having nothing in common with democratic principles, now making the outcome for the people of Egypt a grim reality."

Why so grim an assessment? The world will find out soon what leadership the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to bring. However, one of the darker aspects of this past week's protests was another attack on Friday by a mob of Egyptian men on a group of women who were attempting to highlight rampant sexism in Egyptian culture. The women were groped and beaten, with reports of some being sexually assaulted. An ugly statement - some saying it was a clear message that women would have little social space in the upcoming society beyond that of home.

Egyptian women definitely do NOT have any safer or broader space in Egypt's new democracy.

An AP story describes the situation this way, "Sexual harassment of women, including against those who wear the Islamic headscarf or even cover their face, is common in the streets of Cairo. A 2008 report by the Egyptian Center for Women's Rights says two-thirds of women in Egypt experienced sexual harassment on a daily basis. A string of mass assaults on women in 2006 during the Muslim feast following the holy month of Ramadan prompted police to increase the number of patrols to combat it but legislation providing punishment was never passed.

After Friday's attack, many were already calling for another, much larger stand in the square against such assaults.

Another participant in Friday's march, Ahmed Hawary, said a close female friend of his was attacked by a mob of men in Tahrir Square in January. She was rushed off in an ambulance, which was the only way to get her out, he said. After suffering from a nervous breakdown, she left Cairo altogether to work elsewhere in Egypt.

"Women activists are at the core of the revolution," Hawary said. "They are the courage of this movement. If you break them, you break the spirit of the revolution.

Full article at http://news.yahoo.com/mob-attacks-women-egypt-anti-sex-assault-rally-212911011.html

From Nigeria to Egypt to Somalia ...

Nigeria, Libya, South Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia - each of these countries across North Africa made the news this past week for a variety of reasons.

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Nigeria - The onslaught of the Boko Haram in northern Nigeria escalated this week with the group’s deadliest ever strike on Jan. 20 in Nigeria’s second largest city of Kano. There, a coordinated set of gun and bomb attacks killed at least 185 people. Heavily criticized amid the escalating violence, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan urged the Boko Haram to enter dialogue, challenging the violent Islamist sect to identify themselves and state clearly their demands as a basis for talks, while acknowledging that military confrontation alone will not end their insurgency. At the presidential villa in the capital Abuja, President Jonathan said, “If they clearly identify themselves now and say this is the reason why we are resisting, this is the reason why we are confronting government or this is the reason why we destroy some innocent people and their properties ... then there will be a basis for dialogue.”

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Nigeria with the city of Kano as the site of the latest violence, and the district of Sokoto to the northwest now under threat. In the farther northeast, the town of Maiduguri is considered a stronghold of Boko Haram.

In another report, Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa told journalists Sunday by telephone in the northeastern city of Maiduguri that Jonathan’s call for talks was “not sincere.” Moreover, the spokesman declared that if captured members of the group were not released, it “will launch attacks in Sokoto (another Northern Nigerian city) similar to the big Kano attacks.”

And from Reuters, "Islamist sect Boko Haram, whose attacks have killed hundreds in Nigeria, will continue its campaign until the country is ruled by sharia law, a senior member was quoted as saying by British newspaper, The Guardian. The same Abu Qaga told the Guardian, "We will consider negotiation only when we have brought the government to their knees, ... Once we see that things are being done according to the dictates of Allah, and our members are released (from prison), we will only put aside our arms - but we will not lay them down. You don't put down your arms in Islam, you only put them aside."

Boko Haram fighters. From a Cameroonian blogsite, a breakdown of boko haram is instructive: “The ideology and philosophy of the movement can best be understood by explicating the two words- “Boko” and “Haram”. In Hausa language, the word “boko” is an equivocal term which means either “Western” or foreign; while the word “haram” is an Arabic derivative meaning “forbidden”. Piecing the two words together, ‘boko haram’ means to forbid everything Western and Western education. The intent is to replace modern state formation with the traditional Islamic state, because Western values run contrary to Islamic values. (Teatree - it is a strange bit of logic that Western values are to be rejected while Western armaments are embraced)

Libya From Nigeria northeast to Libya, the hopes that the ouster of Gaddafi would lead to a clear improvement in governance was dealt a blow when Gaddafi loyalists retook Bani Walid. According to a Christian Science Monitor article, hundreds of well-equipped and highly trained remnants of Qaddafi forces raised the green flag over buildings in the western city late Monday after hours of clashes, said Mubarak al-Fatamni, the head of Bani Walid local council.

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Bani Walid once again under Gaddafi loyalist control

The retaking of this former Gaddafi stronghold comes as Libya's new leaders struggle to unify the oil-rich North African nation three months after the former dictator was captured and killed. There are new reports of torture in various prisons around the country, themselves held by a variety of militia's more or less acting on their own.

Bani Walid showing the scars of the recent fight, with apparently more to come.

South Sudan Moving Southeast from Libya, the world's newest country, South Sudan, is facing enormous difficulties. Once of the latest issues is a dispute with the Republic of Sudan over the transport fees in sending its oil north through pipelines for export. With the Republic of Sudan making demands that South Sudan considers unacceptable, it is mulling cutting off oil supplies altogether as a way to raise the stakes.

Ripe for disagreement or mutual benefit: Oil, transit, South Sudan, and the Republic of Sudan

The South Sudanese government has apparently decided to shut down oil flow north, in hopes of pressuring the Republic of Sudan to give better terms for the use of the pipelines.

The Republic of Sudan, meanwhile, is facing its own crisis with Chinese oil workers kidnapped by internal rebels. (What was first reported as five, the number was raised to 29, and the latest is approximately 70.) The men were working Saturday when they were abducted in the southern Kordofan province, the epicenter of Sudan's oil industry and next to Darfur where ethnic African rebels are fighting the Arab-dominated government.

"We are doing our best efforts to find them," Chinese Ambassador to Sudan Li Chengwen told The Associated Press. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the kidnapping and the circumstances of their capture remain unclear. The rebels, along with many international rights activists, accuse China of indirectly funding Khartoum's war effort in Darfur through massive investment in Sudan's oil industry.

Chinese oil workers in the Republic of Sudan

Egypt North from South Sudan to Egypt, the disquieting results of the "Arab Spring" came in the form of Islamists filling the first round of parliamentary positions. From the New York Times, Islamists,propelled largely by the Muslim Brotherhood, won the overwhelming majority of seats in Egypt's parliament, which held its first session Jan. 23 and is set to elect a 100-member panel to draft a new constitution. The "mainstream" Brotherhood won about 47 percent of the seats, and an alliance of ultraconservative Islamists known as the Salafis gained another 25 percent."

For most of its 84-year history, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest and most organized political group, had been banned from political participation, but that changed last spring with the revolt that led to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.

The young leaders who began the revolt won only a few percent of the seats in parliament.

Protests over Egypt's interim army rulers continue, and no one really knows what the future holds for an eventual new government - Islamic rule clashing with secular and modern values seems most likely.

Kenya South from Egypt to Kenya. A Christian Science Monitor article reports, "The International Criminal Court in The Hague has sent a signal that there are consequences for political leaders who use violence to achieve political goals by confirming charges of crimes against humanity against four prominent Kenyans. Whether this changes the political landscape, ends the culture of impunity, or prevents future violence in Kenya, is a matter for Kenyans themselves to decide."

The article continues, "In its decision, announced from the Hague today, the ICC confirmed charges of crimes against humanity first laid in Dec. 2010 against four men for their alleged role in organizing mass violence following the 2007 presidential elections. The charged are former Higher Education Minister William Ruto, former Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, former civil service chief Francis Muthaura, and radio talk show host Joshua arap Sang. The four men are accused of organizing mass violence following the disputed presidential elections of 2007, in which President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner. Senior leaders of both main parties, the president’s Party of National Unity and the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, are accused of stirring up ethnic violence for political advantage and retribution. At least 1,200 people were killed and 600,000 displaced from their homes.

Two of the accused, Mr. Ruto and Mr. Kenyatta, have declared their intentions to run for president in the 2013 elections, and the newly written Kenyan constitution is ambiguous on whether those facing criminal charges can run for public office. “The constitution does not forbid a person from running for office who is faced with criminal charges,” said Comfort Ero, who heads an International Crisis Group based in Nairobi. But the constitution does say that a president who faces criminal charges is vulnerable to impeachment, and in that spirit, Ruto and Kenyatta could possibly be tossed out of office with a two-thirds vote of parliament. The question is more a political and moral one than it is a legal one,” she adds. “How will Kenyans react to this decision? How will they feel about a candidate, knowing that he faces such charges? Is this the sort of person they want to have in office?”

A combination photograph shows Kenya's finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta (L) addressing a news conference in his office in the capital Nairobi in a file photo, and former Kenyan cabinet minister William Ruto, both running for the Kenyan presidency.

South Sudan, Republic of Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia

Ethiopia. Back north to Ethiopia. Here, the Africa Union is meeting in a brand new headquarters. It was built as a gift by China - illustrating the ties China is building in various African nations.

Not bad, hopefully the new building will house strong, ethical institutions and allow similar decision making in Africa to grow.

Somalia The last of the brief country highlights. A US special forces raid freed two aid workers unharmed who had been held for nearly three months. Jessica Buchanan, 32, and Poul Hagen Thisted, 60 were abducted on Oct. 25 in Galkayo, while visiting a de-mining project there, according to their employer, the Copenhagen-based Danish Refugee Council.

Somalia, splintered now for decades, has Kenyan troops pushing from the southwest, and Africa Union forces supporting a weak central government, against the main Islamist group, Al Shaabab, in control of most everywhere else. Famine and lack of security go hand in hand in this stricken land.

So this long blog post covers thousands of miles and a reminder of how big and varied is just the north half of the African continent.