Another country, another coup ...

At first glance, one could mistake this scenario as one describing Mali: poor governance, lack of attention and responsiveness to ethnic groups or regions - often tribal based - which then leads to bitterness, lack of connection to the concept of a nation, ending in a coup. Islam providing a convenient unifying vision, at least unifying enough for the rebels.

But no, the country, this time, is the Central African Republic (the CAR). The previous president, Mr. Bozize, has been run off by the new coup leader, Mr. Djotodia. CAR is an impoverished landlocked country in Central Africa that indeed has a fault line running through it, with Bantu tribes in the more fertile south, and nomadic, often Muslim-oriented tribes in the more-arid north. But unlike Mali, the underlying reasons behind the latest coup are primarily a reversion to the old days where poor governance, lack of institutional strength, regional neglects leave rulers vulnerable, and in this case some vague meddling by neighbors, both near and far.

And, one might say this coup also represents yet another ripple from Libya's 2011 war that flooded the region with arms Governments in neighboring countries and ethnic groups that transcend so many country boundaries, are all jockeying for their new places in the upended order of power centers.

From Hutchinson Encyclopaedia country facts - Capital: Bangui; Language: French (official), Sangho (national), Arabic, Hunsa, Swahili; Religion: Protestant 25%, Roman Catholic 25%, animist 24%, Muslim 15%; Physical features: landlocked flat plateau, with rivers flowing north and south, and hills in northeast and southwest; dry in north; Population around 4 million; Life expectancy: 39 (men), 40 (women).

Central African Republic's northern lands are drier, typical of the Sahel gradation that leads to the deserts of the Sahara. The land supports more cattle, grazing, and a pastoral lifestyle.

CAR's history - primarily from Hutchinson Encyclopaedia:

16th century Part of the Gaoga Empire.
16th-18th centuries: Population reduced greatly by slave raids both by coastal traders and Arab empires in Sudan and Chad.
1889-1903 The French established control over the area, quelling insurrections; a French colony known as Ubangi-Shari was formed and partitioned among commercial concessionaries.
1920-30 Series of rebellions against forced labour on coffee and cotton plantations savagely repressed by the French.
1958 Achieved self-government within French Equatorial Africa.
1960 Achieved independence as Central African Republic;

1966 Jean-Bedel Bokassa came to power in a coup in 1966, and(from Wikipedia)"then began a reign of terror, taking all important government posts for himself. He personally supervised judicial beatings and introduced a rule that thieves would have an ear cut off for the first two offenses and a hand for the third. In 1977, in emulation of his hero Napoleon, he crowned himself emperor of the Central African Empire in a ceremony costing $20 million, practically bankrupting the country. His diamond-encrusted crown alone cost $5 million. In 1979 he had hundreds of schoolchildren arrested for refusing to wear uniforms made in a factory he owned, and personally supervised the massacre of 100 of the schoolchildren by his Imperial Guard. In September, 1979, French paratroopers finally deposed him ..."

Emperor Bokassa holding court - another parody of enlightened self government so common among African leaders ... Comical except for the impoverishment of his people, setting them back generations.

2003 Army chief Franois Bozize deposes President Patasse in a coup. (Bozizé rose to become a high-ranking army officer in the 1970s, under the rule of Jean-Bédel Bokassa. After Bokassa was ousted, Bozizé served in the government as Minister of Defense from 1979 to 1981 and as Minister of Information from 1981 to 1982. He participated in a failed 1982 coup attempt against President André Kolingba and subsequently fled the country. Years later, he served as Army Chief of Staff under President Ange-Félix Patassé, but he began a rebellion against Patassé in 2001.)

2004 New constitution approved in referendum.
2005 Bozize won presidential elections; his Convergence movement became largest parliamentary grouping;
2006 French military forces supported his government offensive against rebel positions in northeast of country.

Which brings us up to the coup that occurred in late March, 2013. From the New York Times, "The leader of the coup in the Central African Republic, Michel Djotodia, solidified his hold on the government on Monday after announcing that he would serve as both president and defense minister and that fellow rebels would fill other top posts. Mr. Djotodia, who rose to prominence as a rebel leader in 2006, had already served as defense minister in an ill-fated unity government formed in January. But the rebels accused President François Bozizé of failing to deliver on promises related to the January accord and ousted him last month."

Click on image for full picture
Michel Djotodia, the rebel leader who declared himself president of the Central African Republic, arrives on Republic Plaza in Bangui, the capital city, on March 30.

The same Michel Djotodia in war costume, shedding the western style suit worn during his inaugural walk through the capital Bangui.

While there are some similarities between Mali's Toureg people and the Seleka coalition if ethnic groups that Djotodia leads(similar in that they perceive they have been neglected or frozen out of national participation) there seems to be more involvement/interference from neighboring Chad in this case. From a UK Daily Mail report, "The people of this riverside capital [Bangui] are not strangers to violence. Apart from an almost constantly simmering rebellion usually in more than one part of the country at the same time, Bangui residents have come to expect a military coup virtually every 10 years. Ten years ago Bozizé was the instigator, this year he was the target. This time around, [however] it's less clear who is in charge. There are far too many uniformed Chadians racing through the streets and manning impromptu roadblocks for this to feel like an internal conflict."

From the German news agency, Deutsche Welle, we read the question, "What possible motives could Chad have for backing a coup in the Central African Republic?

Chad has always been very involved in the politics of the Central African Republic. In 2003 when President Bozize organized a coup, he did it from Chad. So it's quite ironic that now he's accusing Chad of being behind his fall. Chad has a lot of economic interests in CAR, there are a lot of traders moving between the two countries, the economies of the two are very much linked. Last year President Deby went to Bangui and tried to reconcile the opposition and President Bozize. He didn't succeed but this shows how influential and important N'Djamena is in the politics of the Central African Republic."

So, what we do know is this:
* A leader who came to power 10 years ago, was deposed in another coup a few days ago.
* Chad seems involved to some degree.
* Ethnic and religious distinctions are at play.
* Libyan arms and re-aligning coalitions are also still rippling through the Sahel.
* South Africa - whom former President Bozize had cultivated as a new backer for his regime - lost over a dozen soldiers in fighting while they tried and failed to protect his government in Bangui. SA, though, has since maintained virtual silence in this latest powerplay.
* France, historically quick to intervene in its many former colonies - as it did in Mali earlier this year - has not moved significantly in this coup other than to protect its French citizens in the country.
* Looting and poor discipline among the victorious rebels are not setting the stage for a positive outcome.

Once again, stoic CAR civilians on the move trying to steer clear of random violence, and in the process being further impoverished...

Sigh.

Egypt swirls, Syria sinks - and a corruption index?

Unfortunately, if one is attempting to note "the news," the chaotic Middle East is hard to ignore. Once again, Egypt and Syria dominate the more dramatic detail developments - though the general trend of what and why is drearily well-known.

Syria, left to its own devices, continues to disintegrate. Fighting has now spread to the capital Damascus. The capital city's airport has been closed periodically, the country's internet service has likewise been shut down and restarted, etc. Reports are that Western countries - in lieu of anything more direct - are pushing the "opposition" to take stronger form and become more "legitimate" in order for the West to be ready to deal with a new Syrian government should the current one collapse.

Significant fighting in Sunni neighborhoods of Damascus itself is becoming commonplace ...

In parts of Northeast Syria no longer controlled by Assad, Syrian Kurdish women integrate into defensive units.

The Kurds - some 25-30 million strong - are one wild card in the region, bringing in larger governance concerns in Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq where some degree of autonomy for the ethnic group has been formally recognized.

At the same time, warnings from the West continue to stream along. The latest concern voiced is again over Syria's (ie. President Bashar al Assad's regime) stockpile of chemical weapons. There are unsubstantiated reports that canisters of these chemicals have been loaded into bombs, though the bombs have not been weaponized (activated) or attached to fighter jets or helicopters, etc.

Sporadic clashes continue as spillover into Lebanon, Turkey has been promised defensive missile batteries by NATO, and there is relative silence from Iran and Hezbollah - Assad's unabashed supporters.

Egypt , already attempting to broker negotiations between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel, has its own crisis. Egyptian President Morsi, by declaring dictatorial power for himself - though he insists it is temporary and only to allow the revolution to continue - has roused anger on the Egyptian street.

Over 100,000 protestors at Tahrir Square on December 4, miles from the palace itself where tens of thousands are also camped out. Nearly three months ago, Egyptians were breaching the US Embassy on 9/11, now it is their own government which is the target

Rocks fly, protestors converge, and at one point in the past few days the presidential palace was facing such large numbers of protestors that the President might have been evacuated by his security forces to prevent any awkward encounters. Egyptian judges have organized one-day boycotts of their own legal work as a protest against the Morsi decrees, and in some cases have postponed their work indefinitely.

Egyptian tanks now deployed in defense of the Presidential palace

Arab Spring at least in these two countries has not gone as envisioned by the West.

Corruption Index

As Ynet news summarizes, "The Global Corruption Report, produced by the Transparency International (TI) organization, ranks the world's countries according to perceived levels of public corruption. The ranking is based on interviews with businesspeople and politicians inside and outside the reviewed country, and surveys conducted by research institutes, economic institutions and universities worldwide.

A country or territory’s score indicates the perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0-100, where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means it is perceived as very clean."

The 2012 report was issued December 5, and Denmark, Finland and New Zealand tie for first place with scores of 90. These high scores are derived by confidence among the nations' respective business and political leaders, "helped by strong access to information systems and rules governing the behavior of those in public positions."

Sweden ranks fourth with a score of 88, followed by Singapore (87), Switzerland (86), Australia and Norway (85), and Canada and the Netherlands (84). In the Middle East, Israel has a score of 60, Jordan a score of 48, Egypt with its score of 32 falls to 118th place in the 170 nations ranked, while Lebanon is in 128th place (30), and Syria in 144th place (26).

Afghanistan, North Korea and Somalia once again are found at the bottom of the index with tied scores of 8.

Click on image for full picture

The full index and discussion can be found at http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview The US ranks 19th with a score of 79, Japan has a score of 73, China has a score of 39, Russia ranks 133rd with a score of 28. Pakistan has a score of 27.

The point one might make is this - do corruption and instability correlate, or as one astute Pacific Northwest observer notes on another matter, "Coincidence?? I don't think so"

India's growing pains - electricity lost for 640 million

India continues to be one of the more fascinating countries of the world. The largest democracy - a true democracy with dozens of parties, representing hundreds of distinct ethnic groups, and a range of 18th to 21st century thinking - and a rising economic power, the country regularly churns out newsworthy achievements and perplexing challenges.

Northern India was hit hardest by the electrical grid collapse - caused by high demand, and low hydroelectric power behind dams in the north, which catch water off the Himalaya mountains.

This week, two electric grids apparently were unable to provide sufficient power to meet demand, and therefore collapsed (or shut down), breaking off power altogether to some 620-650 million people. Just think, that's as if every single American, Canadian, and Mexican combined lost power on the North American continent, or every single individual on the whole African continent lost power.

The real impact, of course, is nowhere as severe as we Americans would consider, India has one of the lowest per capita rates of consumption of power in the world. However, even so, the effects are a reminder of just how deeply most of the world depends on reliable power.

Grids are shut down to prevent damage to their resistors, insulators, and generators, if there is not enough power to meet demands.

From the BBC ... "Hundreds of trains have come to a standstill and hospitals are running on backup generators. Many traffic lights are also not operating in Delhi, leading to massive traffic jams. Smriti Mehra, who works at the Bank Of India in Delhi, said it had to turn customers away. "There is no internet, nothing is working. It is a total breakdown of everything in our office." In eastern India, around 200 miners were trapped underground as lifts failed, but officials later said an operation had begun to get them out."

Hundreds of thousands waited for electric trains that never arrived ...

From a Bloomberg business/investment article, "Electric crematoriums in Delhi switched back to wood, tax authorities extended by a month the deadline for filing returns, and stock analysts recommended investors buy power equipment-makers including Sterlite Technologies Ltd in anticipation of increased investment in the grid."

Massive traffic jams developed as traffic lights went out, and private vehicles became the second choice for those who normally used public transportation.

Power was lost twice. Again from Bloomberg, "On Day One, nearly 360 million people lost power across seven states in northern India when excessive demand and a shortfall in hydro power overwhelmed the electricity grid. Slightly more than 12 hours later, power resumed in the capital – only to fail again the next day. The second blackout was even worse, with the chaos spreading to Calcutta and other parts of eastern India."

The restoration of power had its own results. Light bulbs in south Delhi exploded, refrigerators groaned from the surge in power, electricity sockets spat out smoke, and assorted appliances were fried. Surge protector sales jumped at New Delhi’s Pankaj Electronics, as did lightbulbs, fuseboxes and black electrical tape at various markets.

One Indian observed, "It just shows our infrastructure is in a complete mess. There is no transparency and no accountability whatsoever." The comment highlights the challenges of the country to bring further regulations into play, along with strong enforcement and accountability. These are the true measures of quality governance.

Numerous examples of illegal bootlegging of electricity can be found. These lines represent corruption from local electricians and politicians, resulting in excessive drain from the lines designed capacity, as well as lack of safeguards to wherever the electicity eventually ends up.

Over the next months, it will be interesting to watch the aftermath, politically as well as physically, of this two day "wake up" event.

Romania holds referendum on impeaching its President

This weekend, Romanians will be headed to the polls to vote on the impeachment of a very unpopular President. However a larger judgement will also be rendered on the health of Romanian democratic institutions. The country's Prime Minister has been widely condemned for engineering the vote as a manipulation of power politics.

Romania, with a population of just over 21 million, is another Eastern European country struggling to rise from its subservient role, over 20 years ago, within the communist Soviet Union.

The European Union (and the US) have weighed in on the rough politics, after an EU report on Romania concluded that the country's political elite does not understand how democracy works, an indirect admission that the country should not be in the European Union at all – just five years after it joined.

As the UK Guardian put it, "The political crisis has left many Romanians confused and unsure about how to vote on Sunday. Endemic corruption and disenchantment with the political class have led many to believe that, regardless of the outcome, the referendum is a no-win situation. ... it is a referendum forced by a left-wing government looking to ensure the right-wing head of state faces impeachment charges."

The main figures are Traian Basescu, President of Romania since 2004 with a conservative perspective, while the Prime Minister is a 39-yr old lawyer, Victor Ponta, with clear leftist leanings. As the Guardian article concedes, "Ponta's arrival unleashed brutal trench warfare in Romanian politics; the prime minister is eager to use his ascendancy to settle scores."

President Basescu, has not been successful in working with a string of six Prime Ministers since 2004, and has already been suspended once from his Presidential duties in 2007.

Prime Minister Victor Ponta, after just 5 months in office, has also raised alarm bells over his use of powers. One of the major clouds has been charges of plagiarism. The allegations were first brought in June by the British scientific journal Nature, which reported that Ponta copied large portions of his 2003 thesis while at the University of Bucharest. The Romanian National Council for Attestation of University Titles concluded a few days later that the thesis had, indeed, been plagiarised. Ponta responded by rescinding the council's legal authority.

Basescu is unpopular; his rightwing party took a pounding in local elections last month, taking only 15% of the vote. He had over the past 8 years failed to tackle real and perceived corruption within the political system, while his latest push for austerity measures was the basis for Parliament suspending him pending the referendum vote. But the manner in which the new Prime Minister Victor Ponta has waged his war against the president is the reason that Brussels - representing the European Union - has intervened. From another newspaper account, "Ponta felt the full weight of EU wrath after his government took on the Constitutional Court, threatening to replace judges, reduce its powers and ignored one of its decisions ..." in his drive to push Basescu from office.

The second poorest country in Europe, Romania joined the EU with Bulgaria in 2007. Both states were not really viewed as properly fit for entry but admission was seen as a clever geo-political move in the contest with Vladimir Putin's Russia for influence in the Balkans, particularly in countries with historically close ties to Moscow.

Romania has struggled to improve basic infrastructure, such as this degraded country road

So, apparently a number of countries are watching not only Romania's vote on Sunday, but even more closely, the aftermath. If Basescu is impeached, a new presidential election will be held within 3 months, and it is likely that Ponta's left wing party will triumph. Whether that leads to any deeper change from corruption and lack of respect for democratic institutions is now at stake.

Bucharest is Romania's capital, and likely best known city

Several international observers have become concerned over the trajectory of a number of Eastern European countries, freed from Soviet domination in the early 1990s, who are showing signs of slipping back towards more authoritarian governance. A USA Today article recently noted, "The political crisis in Romania could derail years of democratic progress and analysts say that the West must act decisively to arrest backsliding among Eastern European nations such as Hungary and Bulgaria before autocracy makes a comeback. ... The events unfolding in Romania echo events in neighboring Hungary. Earlier this year the Hungarian government implemented a new constitution that limits individual rights, the judiciary and the independence of the central bank. Analysts say more than harsh words from the West are needed to reverse the trend.

The economic downturn is not helping matters. Romania has been forced to cut wages and benefits to public workers, and enact layoffs, opening the way for Ponta to argue that free markets and democratic reforms are not working for Romania."