The die is cast on Iran ...

After this post, following a string of posts which has morphed into rather dire commentaries on world conflicts, Teatree is changing direction for the coming year. Stay tuned. But in a fitting end-piece to the past couple of years, we return to the Middle East with its civil, Jihadist, and proxy wars, both current and potential.

In the news this past two weeks is the agreement between Iran and a group of five nations who have permanent seats on the UN Security Council (US, Great Britain, France, China, Russia) plus Germany regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Iran has long maintained it has a right as much as any nation to utilize nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, and maintain sovereign rights to privacy. The West in general and Israel in particular are opposed to Iran gaining such operational and technological expertise given Iran's track record of supporting extremist groups as well as publicly calling for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust. In the end, it is the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons as an outcome of developing nuclear expertise and facilities that fuels the angst.


Iran, with a population of nearly 80 million - similar to Germany - has large oil reserves, substantial military power, and a history of aggressive actions towards its neighbors that coincides with the ascendency of its theocratic rulers. Graphic from www.quora.com

The ambitions of Iran since 1979 when the Islamists came to power, have always included a construction of a strong theocracy, hostility to the West, death to America, annihilation of Israel, and in general the aggrandizement of the nation as a regional if not global power by whatever means necessary.

The West, led by the US but in general throughout the European Union, has slapped harsh economic sanctions on Iran for defying calls for openness and transparency in regards to inspecting the country's supposedly peaceful nuclear infrastructure. Indeed, there is little disagreement that Iran has moved towards nuclear weapons with various secret programs, facilities, and general research trajectories that strongly point towards developing weapons grade nuclear material in spite of its denials. For an exhausting comprehensive timeline of Iran's nuclear ambitions and world reaction, go to www.iranintelligence.com/program-history

But here we are, the UN Security Council has endorsed the P5+1 deal with Iran, and sanctions may soon be ending. The agreement limits Iran's capabilities for another decade to build enough highly enriched material that could be used to make nuclear bombs, and allows inspections of facilities if so desired - all this in exchange for a removal of harsh sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy over the past several years. Critics of the agreement call it a disaster that will lead to Iran becoming a nuclear power over time, while proponents of the deal say it avoids the scenario of a future war to prevent Iran becoming another possessor of nuclear weapons ... kind of.


Negotiators lining up for the photo shoot as deal is reached. From left, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, and US Secretary of State John Kerry. Photo from www.usnews.com

Key Agreement Points

Proponents of the deal say that the numbers of centrifuges Iran is allowed (items that can enrich nuclear fuel to a level that allows a nuclear bomb to be assembled) along with inspections slows any plans to create a bomb, giving nations time to slap sanctions back into place ... or take more forceful action. At the same time, the amount of enriched nuclear material Iran already has accumulated is to be greatly reduced, with the majority shipped out of the country.

One key and controversial component of the agreement is the ability of inspectors to enter nuclear sites to test and monitor the acceptable actions under the agreement as well as note any prohibited actions. The actual access procedures are long and complicated, a detailed review can be found here in a CBS news article. Some sites are well known and accessible while Iranian military sites where nuclear enrichment might be conducted are "negotiable."


Here, our old friend, Iranian ex-president and holocaust denier Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, talks with Iranian nuclear technicians in front of nuclear centrifuges which are at the heart of the inspection controversy. Photo from blog.nuclearsecrecy.com

Four ways to assess the results

Will Arab neighbors, in particular Saudi Arabia and its allies, begin to bulk up their own nuclear research, with the potential of a destabilizing regional arms race.

Will Israel be placated over the next year with new assurances of US support and defense.

Will Iran follow the agreement - inspections as requested/demanded by UN international inspectors. (Teatree remembers the long drawn out cat and mouse game played by Iraq's Saddam Hussein, and the hundreds of ways inspections were foiled.) And will the nearly month-long grace period between inspection demands and deadlines for compliance be effective.

Will a near-future removal of economic sanctions against Iran's rulers and businesses quickly turn into a boost for Iran's various proxy militias and dependent regimes (such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad's fragile Syrian regime, and for that matter, the Houthis in Yemen).

But the die is cast so to speak, and we will know more clearly by the end of 2015 whether this agreement has ceded power to an aggressive Islamic theocracy, or induced Iran into acting more constructively.


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, far from attempting to project a more positive image after the nuclear agreement, declared in a recent Reuters article "U.S. policies in the region were "180 degrees" opposed to Iran's, at a speech in a Tehran mosque punctuated by chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". In this photo from news.yahoo.com, Khamenei greets his friend, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya

Future posts - we'll be leaving the world of woes behind for perhaps a year - and introduce ourselves to little outposts around the globe that are near the Arctic circle. Perhaps we can interweave a bit of climate change discussion into the stories.


Photo from Britannica.com

Some individuals caught within larger events

A rather vague theme this time, but I think I'm trying to recognize individuals, who in turn represent the human face of larger forces and events. Hang in there.

A teacher trainee stands up

In Germany, from a report by the German news agency, Deutche Welle, "Tugce Albayrak, a German citizen of Turkish origin, was the victim of a violent attack earlier this month. Reports indicate the student from Gelnhausen intervened on behalf of two girls who were being harassed by three males near the restroom area of a McDonald's restaurant. Thereafter, and in circumstances that have yet to be clarified, the scene shifted to the fast food restaurant's car park, where an 18-year-old male punched her, causing her to fall and hit her head on a stone."

Since that incident (and after this rather dry reccounting), her decision to step in has created a frenzy of attention, right up to the German President, Joachim Gauck, being called upon to posthumously award her the Federal Order of Merit. In gathering a bit of her background, Ms Albayrak, 23, and a teacher trainee, we find the longer story.


Tugce Albayrak, a second generation German citizen, from an immigrant Turkish family. Photo from hellogiggles.com

From an article by the UK Guardian, "The Albayrak family arrived in Germany in the late 1970s – following the route of many a Turkish Gastarbeiter, or guest worker, before them – from an Anatolian village called Bahadin, and settling in the western state of Hesse.

“Tugce’s grandfather had been working at the Opel carplant in Russelsheim for several years ... his wife joined him and decided to bring the five children over,” At the start, life was hard. “It was us, the Turks, and them, the Germans,” she said. “Integration did not exist” said one of the original five children. By and by, all five children gave birth. There were to be a succession of nine boys before Tugce came along in 1991. “She was our first princess,” says Uncle Yasni. “We treasured her all the more for that.”

Tugce’s parents – her father works at a car plastics production plant and her mother as a clinical assistant – were seen as particularly exemplary amongst the Turkish diaspora for the way they encouraged their children’s education – something they had no access to themselves. Tugce was in her second year at university, training to be a secondary school teacher of German and ethics. “She was a very good student and an extremely popular person,” a university spokeswoman said."

A bright light in what is mainly a more somber story of Germany's Turkish workers not integrating well, and not being well received over the past several decades.

Indian girls fight back

In India, where there exists a common sentiment of disdain for women, two young sisters resisted the verbal and physical abuse of three young men on a public bus.

From www.huffingtonpost.co.uk, "footage of two Indian sisters has emerged showing them beating three men with belts who allegedly tried to molest them on a bus. The men are reported to have blown kisses and passed notes before subjecting them to lewd comments.

The sisters, Aarti and Pooja, were then reportedly thrown off the vehicle as it was still moving and further assaulted. No one came to their aid throughout the incident and a fellow passenger apparently said: "Leave these boys or they will rape you or pour acid. They will kill you and no one even get your bodies."


The two sisters, Aarti and Pooja Kumar, 22 and 19, after being discouraged by police from pursuing their case, have suddenly become social media heroines. Photo from http://www.ibtimes.co.uk

Unfortunately, the article continues, ""Passengers in the bus stopped us from calling the police. We were thrown out of moving bus & then conductor told us to file police complaint, but by that time they had all escaped." Police have said the matter is under investigation but have drawn criticism for their slow response. The girl's father, Rajesh Kumar, said officials were even trying to pressurise them not to pursue the matter."

Since the event has become internationally known, we learn (from the ib times in the UK) "The three alleged assailants have been arrested and remanded in custody for 14 days but residents in their village of Kandla have mounted a protest demanding their immediate release. ...Meanwhile, the bus driver has also been suspended for failing to take action during the fight."

A young American boy offers free hugs

In the US, tensions from the riots in Ferguson, Missouri, following a grand jury decision to not indict a white police officer who shot and killed a black teen in an altercation, broke across the nation with street protests. In Portland, Oregon, a 12 year old boy offered free hugs as an alternative to angry actions.


From an article in the UK Daily Mail, a 12-year-old black boy, Devonte Hart, with tears in his eyes, embraced a white police officer, Portland Police Sgt. Bret Barnum (Photo from article)

Kenyan laborers pay dearly

In Kenya, repeating a bus massacre from just 10 days earlier, over 30 Kenyan quarry workers near the northeast city of Mandera where rounded up by al-Shabab extremists, asked what their religion was, and those not Muslim were executed.

Victims being removed from scene of the attack. There were no heroics here, just innocent workers caught up in a vicious war where militants perpetrate incidents and the security forces apparently not up to the task. Photo from www.independent.co.uk

The incident like most of the above has quickly mushroomed into a larger event. From the UK Independent, "Kenya’s President, Uhuru Kenyatta, has scrambled to restore confidence in his leadership with a security reshuffle after Islamist gunmen shot and beheaded 36 labourers at a quarry in north-eastern Kenya in the second such massacre in less than a fortnight.

Amid growing criticism over his failure to tackle the security threat, Mr Kenyatta fired his Interior Minister, replacing him with the opposition figure and retired army General Joseph Ole Nkaissery, and accepted the resignation of the national police chief David Kimaiyo. ...

The attacks have highlighted the Kenyan government’s failure to provide security in vulnerable and remote border areas, where decades of underinvestment in public security have left the police thinly spread, and militants are able to move easily across the porous border from war-torn Somalia, either by paying off underpaid police officers or by avoiding the scarce patrols."

PS. Kenyan President Kenyatta, of course, is himself in danger of being tried by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for his role in inflaming ethnic violence after the country's 2007 presidential election.

Teatree can think of many others who could have been noted here .. a list of individuals caught up in larger struggles, some emerging as momentary heroes, while others dying.

India challenges international trade agreement over food security

While the world remains fixated, and probably rightly so, on the carnage across the Middle East (ISIS, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and now once again Hamas and Israel), another meeting occurred in the past two days that nevertheless deserves more attention.

Last Friday at a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, a reasonably low key meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) erupted in anger when India refused to go along with a slide towards greater trade liberalization understandings. Called the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), India signaled it would not sign the document as its food security concerns had not been adequately addressed.

Grain being loaded into ocean going vessel. Grain reserves and ability to move volumes from areas of surplus to areas of need is important, but not to the point of stifling the vitality of local agricultural sectors. Photo from www.telestack.com

In uncharacteristic fashion, India's stance provoked angry rhetoric from the US. "Today we are extremely discouraged that a small handful of members in this organisation are ready to walk away from their commitments at Bali, to kill the Bali agreement, to kill the power of that good faith and goodwill we all shared, to flip the lights in this building back to dark," U.S. Ambassador Michael Punke said in a statement.

In addition, the EU and Australia also sent India a letter stating their concern that the reluctance of India would bring further trade liberalization to a crawl.

What's the issue?

India in the past several rounds of WTO meetings has requested a satisfactory set of guarantees that food security for its millions of poorer citizens would not be jeopardized by further liberalization of food trade. As an article from the www.dnaindia.com describes it in detail:

"The TFA aims to fast track any movement of goods among countries by cutting down bureaucratic obligations. The problem with TFA runs in a clause that says farm subsidies cannot be more than 10 percent of the value of agricultural production. If the cap is breached, other members can challenge it and also go on to impose trade sanctions on the country.

The developing countries would have a problem with the solutions offered by the developed countries as without the subsidies the food security of the developing nations could be seriously harmed. India agreed to the TFA in Bali only under the condition that interim relief would be provided to the developing nations. It said no legal actions or sanctions would be imposed on the developing nations till 2017, by which time a solution would be worked out among the nations. However, this interim relief would not be applicable if such subsidies would lead to trade distortions, by which one means, that prices of exports and imports cannot be affected by this.

India's Food Security Act, which is binding on the government by law now, implies that the government will provide very cheap food to the most vulnerable part of the population at extremely low prices. Apart from providing subsidies to the consumers, through the public distribution system, it also provides subsidies to the producers of food grains. So it buys food grains from farmers at a minimum support price, and subsidizes inputs like electricity and fertilizer.

The first problem is with the 10% cap on subsidies which will not be possible for India to achieve. Adding to the woes is the fact that the 10% cap is calculated based on 1986-88 prices when the prices of food grains were much lower. So the cap has to be updated taking into account the present prices of foodgrains.

The second problem is that even for providing subsidized food, India will have to open up its own stockpiling to international monitoring. It will not be able to add protein heavy grains like say, lentils, if it wants to, due to riders in the peace clause.

Third, it might seem unfair to developing countries to not crack down on farm subsidies that the United States provides to its farmers to the tune of more than $20 billion per year. While the WTO is binding the developing countries to protocols, the issue of subsidies by developed giants like US seems to be off the table."

Observations

India's new prime minister Modi is bringing some backbone to the world stage. Good for him.

India's new Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Photo from www.thenews.com.pk

US Ambassador Punke is sounding like a punk. When one of the countries objecting to the TFA happens to be the 2nd most populous nation on earth, his description of "small handful of members" mis-characterizes the size and importance of the objection.

Michael Punke serves as Deputy United States Trade Representative and U.S. Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland. (Teatree has no idea whether Punke is a punk, he might be a nice guy. But the criticism stands ...) Photo from en.mercopress.com

New leader of the WTO, Brazilian diplomat Roberto Carvalho de Azevedo, now has some serious work cut out for him. Teatree sincerely wishes him success in satisfying that "small member" India, while moving trade liberalization forward.

Azevedo leads the WTO, and his diplomatic skills are about to be called upon. Photo from inspirerende.wordpress.com

Western countries do subsidize their agricultural systems heavily, and don't like anyone pointing that out. Food security for any nation should be high priority. Subsidies - such as cheap bread in Egypt and several other countries - may not be efficient, but Teatree is all for supporting local home grown food programs and resisting cheap grain by the ship from nations which have industrialized their own food growing sector.

Food production in India may be outdated and inefficient, but there is a fine line between pulling the rug out from under a vital rural lifestyle and substituting efficient large farm systems leaving significant segments of poor rural citizens with little skills for other work. Photo from www.rural.nic.in

This is ALWAYS an under-the-radar issue for the West which works best when kept low key. Hear, hear for India to bring it to the surface.

Destroying Assad's chemical weapons a multinational effort

Four months ago in September, after the UN and western nations found Syrian President Assad had indeed used chemical weapons on his citizens and rebels, the leader agreed under pressure to destroy his arsenal of Sarin, Mustard gas and VX nerve gas. The agreement, a result of delicate and intense negotiations between the US and Russia, envisioned a series of steps to that end.

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Despite initial sputtering angry denials by Assad's regime, UN and ultimately world leaders agreed that he had authorized and used nerve gas shells on concentrations of rebels intermixed with Syrian citizens. Animals are collateral damage ... photo from baomai.blogspot.com

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... as were babies and children. Photo from de.nachrichten.yahoo.com

As a CNN article at the time wrote, "initial inspections of declared chemical weapons sites must be completed by November; all production and mixing and filling equipment must be destroyed by November; and all chemical weapons material must be eliminated by mid-2014."

High stakes conversation between US Secretary of State, John Kerry (left), and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) over identifying, inventorying, removing, and destroying Syrian chemical weapons in an 11 month time frame, in the middle of a civil war. Photo from Pakistani Business Recorder - September 13, 2013

In fact, as the halfway point arrives, there has been substantive progress. In a USA Today article, it was estimated that Syrian leader Assad's military had about 1,000 metric tons of deadly chemicals and precursors, including nerve agents and mustard gas. "Most of the chemicals are precursors, which can be collected and then shipped out of the country, said Paul Walker, an analyst at Green Cross International, an environmental group based in Geneva."

By the end of October, Syria had submitted an inventory of weapons caches and volumes, and UN inspectors had confirmed the details at nearly all sites. At the same time, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN authorized entity overseeing the implementation and adherence to the agreement - announced it was satisfied that the planned destruction of CW production, mixing and munition-filling capability had also been met.

UN authorized inspectors in the fall of 2013 ready to dismantle some mixing equipment in Syrian chemical weapons depots. Photo from Washington Post

The tricky part remains

Assuming all has gone as reported, that now leaves the 1200 tons (updated estimate by on-the-ground inspectors) of chemicals in various states of toxicity to be removed from the country, and then destroyed. On November 15 the OPCW approved a plan to transport Syria's chemical weapons to a location outside its territory by February 5, 2014, where the weapons would then be destroyed.

Russia has offered armored vehicles to transport the material to Syrian ports. By the end of December, according to http://groundreport.com "Russia has delivered 75 up armored trucks to Syria, along with other equipment that will be used to transport Syrian chemical weapons arsenal to sites for systematic destruction, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported. “Over the three days from December 18-20 we have airlifted to the Latakia airport 75 vehicles, including 50 Kamaz trucks and 25 Ural armored trucks,” in 38 flights.

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Russian vehicles such as these will move chemicals from Syria proper to the port city of Latakia.

Norway and Denmark have agreed to transport the chemicals from Lakatia, Syria to Italy where most will be handed over to the United States, some to the UK, and less dangerous chemicals to unnamed chemical companies.

Danish frigates to be used to transport Syrian chemicals. Photo from www.giornalisticalabria.it

Italian port of Gioia Tauro (in the southern Italian region of Calabria) handles "dangerous" shipments of chemicals routinely, though this specific exercise caused a fair amount of concern across the country. Photo by REUTERS/Alessandro Bianchi/Files

The US will destroy the highest priority chemicals in a specially outfitted ship, the Cape Ray, while priority number 2 chemicals will be destroyed in the UK after transport there by the Royal Navy.

The Cape Ray left the Portsmouth New Hampshire shipyard in early January after being set up to destroy the most dangerous chemicals at sea (in international waters in the Mediterranean).

While it is easy to write a few sentences explaining the procedure - these pictures remind Teatree that the implementation involves real people, real equipment, lots of planning, lots of security. It appears the timetable has slipped a bit, but we shall see. Ironic that Russia will be hosting the Olympics in Sochi with heavy security to thwart terror threats, while transporting chemical weapons out of an allied country it robustly supports.

North Korea - sixty years of self-imposed isolation and bombast

July 27 is the 60th anniversary of an armistice between belligerents on the Korean Peninsula. The agreement ended formal hostilities between the UN forces (21 countries in all, but primarily US troops), and those supporting North Korea - primarily China with the Soviet Union in sympathy. The armistice was supposed to lead to a peace agreement of some sort, but it never materialized. The line of disengagement - roughly following the 38th parallel - is called a demilitarized zone, but is in fact one of, if not the foremost, fortified border in the world.

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Still one of the more remarkable photos showing lightless, isolated North Korea, surrounded by prosperous Japan, South Korea, and relatively prosperous China. (NASA photo - found at www.theatlanticcities.com)

As an article in the LA Times described it, "On one side of the world’s most heavily fortified border, North Koreans are celebrating Saturday’s 60th anniversary of the armistice that halted the Korean War with Victory Day fireworks and a military parade. In South Korea, Armistice Day is a time for somber reflection – on the 1.2 million killed on both sides of the 38th Parallel, on the division that cleaves families these six decades later and on the long-elusive quest for a peace treaty to formally end the conflict."

As an ABC news article summarized, "Communist North Korea invaded South Korea with 135,000 troops on June 25, 1950, and three years later with more than 2.5 million dead, including more than more than 36,000 Americans who died in combat, the war ended." Today, more than 28,000 US troops remain in South Korea as a significant deterrent force against a resumption of hostilities.

The Korean war - if one read the previous two paragraphs, one article refers to 1.2 million killed and the other 2.5 million. The former number is apparently the South Korean number, while the larger number is more broadly all participants - willing and unwilling. Photo from www.archives.gov

The ideological freeze between "the proletariat" and "the forces of imperialism" has endured in North Korea through the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the continued movement in China towards a controlled, yet free-market economy. North Korean governance has evolved as well, however, not improving just turning into a family-dynasty, typical of old-time monarchies, and modern-day strongmen and dictatorships.

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North Korea - everyone has a pre-approved slot and behavior. At this celebration of the 60th year "victory" over imperialist forces, the North Korean elite go through the motions. (Ed Jones / AFP/Getty Images / July 26, 2013)

Today

South Korea is a vibrant, prosperous nation of nearly 50 million, while North Korea holds a population of just over 24 million, and according to UN analysis, half of whom live in "extreme poverty."

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Seoul, South Korea (Photo by ASDFGH) at the website http://opentravel.com

Military parades, perpetual vigilance against outside forces, privileges for a royal few and their military elite is the mainstay of North Korea 60 years later - what a legacy (and testimony against entrenched and brutal control).

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (third generation) greets another orchestrated and narcissistic review of the masses. Photo from www.thedailysheeple.com

Six in-betweens ...

A short musing on places in this world that are "between" nations' boundaries. That's not totally accurate - places where people stay when they are not recognized as officially being somewhere.

Refugees, asylum seekers, detainees, displaced - the categories are well known. And depending on the whims of reporting, some of the places where these categories of people are found receive the international spotlight. Still, a few have bubbled to the surface the past few weeks that remind Teatree of perhaps a larger number than we typically think about.

Airport transit zones - the US citizen Edward Snowden remains "trapped" in an airport in Russia. He's looking for a country that would grant him asylum, in order to avoid prosecution from the US government for spying, or leaking secrets. Some Latin American countries - Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua - have offered him various degrees of guarantees of refuge from the US reach, but he has to get there first. Regardless, living in an airport transit zone is one of those "inbetweens."

An airport transit zone - legal limbo - most people move right on through to somewhere else. (Photo from washington post)

Embassies. Snowden was receiving counsel on seeking asylum from another well covered individual Julian Assange who is living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. Embassies are considered "national soil" of the country they represent, though they are clearly situated on land that is part of whatever nation they are in. Teatree understands that the situation is known as a "construct" - an artificial frame of reference that everyone involved agrees to and mentally accepts for their mutual benefit.

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US embassy in Beijing China, the scene in 2012 when the blind activist, Chen Guangcheng, sought refuge from Chinese persecution. (photo by WangMiao1989 (a reference to an event, not the year in which the picture was taken))

Refugee camps - pretty familiar. Land in a country that is adjacent to a conflict (such as in Syria) where hundreds of thousands flee for safety. The host government attempts to set up rudimentary refuge: tents, water, latrines, in order to reduce the misery of those who have fled. Refugee camps have also been established at times for streams of people leaving political oppression rather than straightforward violence.

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Jordan is overseeing vast numbers of refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war. The UN Secretary Ban Ki Moon recently noted that this swelling of displaced persons is now the second largest in recent decades, eclipsed only by the scenes during and after the Rwandan genocide. Photo by Reuters is of the Zaatari refugee camp, near the Jordanian city of Mafraq, July 18, 2013

Illegal immigration asylum centers - these are a little less familiar, though in the past two weeks two have been referenced in the news.

Lampedusa, Italy

Lampedusa is a small island between the North African coast and the toe of Italy. Thousands of migrants arrive on this island each year from a variety of countries, but since the Libyan civil war two years ago, the stream has increased. The new Pope Francis created a bit of publicity for this land by visiting it recently and reminding the world of the plight of refugees.

Lampedusa is one of several small islands under jurisdiction of Italy where refugees and immigrants show up.(photo from wikimedia)

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An overloaded boat of migrants arriving at a harbor on the island (photo from http://www.grandangoloagrigento.it/lampedusa-sbarcati-35-immigrati-centro-accoglienza-strapieno/)

Nauru

This tiny island is home to an "illegal immigration asylum center" run by Australia (photo from BBC article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23387514) Nauru is apparently the world's smallest republic, population a little over 10,000. It used to create wealth by mining and processing "1,000 years' worth of fossilised bird droppings" but now depends on aid in various forms. Leasing room to Australia for its asylum center is likely one way the government saw some additional funds in its future.

Australia is experiencing a wave of undocumented immigration from a variety of South Asian nations. In the past, the government has had a policy of turning boats around, but because so many vessels are overloaded or in poor shape, those would-be-immigrants are now more likely to be intercepted, loaded onto official vessels and flown to asylum centers for processing or return. (map from BBC article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23387514)

A unique in-between-

One of the most controversial "inbetweens" in recent years is the US terror detainee center at Guantanamo, Cuba. Here, "enemy combatants" picked up in firefights or sweeps connected with the "war on terror" are held in indefinite status without formal charges. The truth is that these individuals are often not wanted by their native countries, who are quite content to let the US take the international heat for holding them. Many detainees released back to their nations have been subsequently found again in firefights connected to jihad ideologies.

Guantanamo prisoners being held as enemy combatants (photo from washingtonindependent.com)

Certainly much of the Western world takes soil, status, and place as givens - not so for so many in the world.

Egypt swirls, Syria sinks - and a corruption index?

Unfortunately, if one is attempting to note "the news," the chaotic Middle East is hard to ignore. Once again, Egypt and Syria dominate the more dramatic detail developments - though the general trend of what and why is drearily well-known.

Syria, left to its own devices, continues to disintegrate. Fighting has now spread to the capital Damascus. The capital city's airport has been closed periodically, the country's internet service has likewise been shut down and restarted, etc. Reports are that Western countries - in lieu of anything more direct - are pushing the "opposition" to take stronger form and become more "legitimate" in order for the West to be ready to deal with a new Syrian government should the current one collapse.

Significant fighting in Sunni neighborhoods of Damascus itself is becoming commonplace ...

In parts of Northeast Syria no longer controlled by Assad, Syrian Kurdish women integrate into defensive units.

The Kurds - some 25-30 million strong - are one wild card in the region, bringing in larger governance concerns in Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq where some degree of autonomy for the ethnic group has been formally recognized.

At the same time, warnings from the West continue to stream along. The latest concern voiced is again over Syria's (ie. President Bashar al Assad's regime) stockpile of chemical weapons. There are unsubstantiated reports that canisters of these chemicals have been loaded into bombs, though the bombs have not been weaponized (activated) or attached to fighter jets or helicopters, etc.

Sporadic clashes continue as spillover into Lebanon, Turkey has been promised defensive missile batteries by NATO, and there is relative silence from Iran and Hezbollah - Assad's unabashed supporters.

Egypt , already attempting to broker negotiations between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel, has its own crisis. Egyptian President Morsi, by declaring dictatorial power for himself - though he insists it is temporary and only to allow the revolution to continue - has roused anger on the Egyptian street.

Over 100,000 protestors at Tahrir Square on December 4, miles from the palace itself where tens of thousands are also camped out. Nearly three months ago, Egyptians were breaching the US Embassy on 9/11, now it is their own government which is the target

Rocks fly, protestors converge, and at one point in the past few days the presidential palace was facing such large numbers of protestors that the President might have been evacuated by his security forces to prevent any awkward encounters. Egyptian judges have organized one-day boycotts of their own legal work as a protest against the Morsi decrees, and in some cases have postponed their work indefinitely.

Egyptian tanks now deployed in defense of the Presidential palace

Arab Spring at least in these two countries has not gone as envisioned by the West.

Corruption Index

As Ynet news summarizes, "The Global Corruption Report, produced by the Transparency International (TI) organization, ranks the world's countries according to perceived levels of public corruption. The ranking is based on interviews with businesspeople and politicians inside and outside the reviewed country, and surveys conducted by research institutes, economic institutions and universities worldwide.

A country or territory’s score indicates the perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0-100, where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means it is perceived as very clean."

The 2012 report was issued December 5, and Denmark, Finland and New Zealand tie for first place with scores of 90. These high scores are derived by confidence among the nations' respective business and political leaders, "helped by strong access to information systems and rules governing the behavior of those in public positions."

Sweden ranks fourth with a score of 88, followed by Singapore (87), Switzerland (86), Australia and Norway (85), and Canada and the Netherlands (84). In the Middle East, Israel has a score of 60, Jordan a score of 48, Egypt with its score of 32 falls to 118th place in the 170 nations ranked, while Lebanon is in 128th place (30), and Syria in 144th place (26).

Afghanistan, North Korea and Somalia once again are found at the bottom of the index with tied scores of 8.

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The full index and discussion can be found at http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview The US ranks 19th with a score of 79, Japan has a score of 73, China has a score of 39, Russia ranks 133rd with a score of 28. Pakistan has a score of 27.

The point one might make is this - do corruption and instability correlate, or as one astute Pacific Northwest observer notes on another matter, "Coincidence?? I don't think so"