Putin's Russia searches for partners

On May 29, Russian President Putin stood with two national leaders from Belarus and Kazakhstan, to announce the formation of a rival to the European Union (EU), called the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The three countries would provide an alternative economic trading zone to the EU, with the intent of attracting other countries, one assumes, who are unable to become members of the EU. Both Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have indicated their interest in becoming members

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The founding members of the Eurasian Economic Union - from left, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, and President Putin of Russia. Photo from www.uznews.net

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Here in Cyrillic script, are the founding EaEU members. The gray vacancy in the southwest of the map is Ukraine, which at one point, no doubt, was assumed to become a founding partner in this alternative to the EU. Graphic from democraticbelarus.eu

Critics consider the EaEU as a Putin effort to revive the soviet empire without the communist ideology. Ukraine, however, is missing. In fact, Ukraine was trying to move towards the EU over the past years, which ultimately led to Putin's clampdown and annexation of the Crimean peninsula, as well as fueling separatist movements throughout the east of the country.

President Putin called the official establishment of the EaEU as the "central event of the year" (apparently surpassing his annexation exercise), but even among the founding three members, there was hesitation. As one article from uznews observed, "It should be noted that the signing of the document did not go as planned by Moscow. Kazakhstan, for instance, spoke out against “Russian revenge-seeking” and decided to not include such “murky” points as “common citizenship”, “foreign affairs”, “passport and visa regimes”, “common borders”, “inter-parliamentary cooperation”, and “export control”.

Belarus also signed the agreement with many corrections having rejected allegations of its economic and political weakness while its leader, Alexander Lukashenka, underscored more than once that his country is entering the union as an equal partner and will not tolerate any infringements on its sovereignty."

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The new EaEU is most likely the latest attempt to solidify the influence of Russia with its neighbors. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, there was much fanfare over the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which, who knows, perhaps was trying, at least with the name, to imitate the British Commonwealth. Even then, the three Baltic states had quickly and emphatically moved away from CIS consideration. Graphic from www.canros.com

Other Putin moves:

Defiant of Western sanctions for his land grab on the Crimean Peninsula, Russian President Putin also trumpeted a long term energy deal with China, selling up to $400 billion of oil and gas over 30 years. This time Putin called the deal, a “watershed event.” The agreement includes building new pipelines and terminals heading away from Europe, where most of Russia's oil and gas exports now flow. $400 billion sounds like a lot, but with Putin plowing $50 billion into the Sochi winter Olympics alone, it can be squandered ...

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Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at oil and gas agreement event The previous day, the two countries announced a broader energy cooperation framework agreement. Photo from cntv.cn

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Lots of new pipelines over extensive miles - all concentrated in the east of Russia and headed towards China. Graphic found in www.srbijadanas.net

Secondly, and perhaps not completely unrelated, a prospective EaEU member, Kyrgyzstan has concluded its agreement with the United States in which it provided an airbase at Manas for NATO operations in Afghanistan. While the timetable was agreed on several years ago, its coincidental timing emphasizes Russia's efforts to consolidate its previous allied borders.

The US Manas air force base in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan ... Photo from defence.pk

From a Washington Post article, we read, "Kyrgyzstan, a mainly Muslim nation of 5.5 million, remains poor and volatile after violent revolts that have deposed two presidents since 2005. It lies on a drug-trafficking route out of Afghanistan and is next door to China, which is boosting its economic ties with resource-rich Central Asia. After his election in 2011, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev assured Moscow the U.S. air base would be shut.

In December 2012 he ratified a deal leasing the base to Russia for 15 years from January 2017, after Moscow agreed to write off some $500 million of Kyrgyz debts. The agreement can be automatically extended for five years after its expiry. Neighboring Tajikistan also receives Russian economic aid and ratified a deal in October to extend by three decades Moscow's military presence on its land, which may face security threats after NATO troops leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014."

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With the Western war effort quickly winding down in Afghanistan, the US is relinquishing its Kyrgystan air base and will accomplish any further resupplying by air from Romania ... It looks like a stretch, but then again, the US seems to have every intention of leaving Afghanistan, as well as leaving the country to an even more uncertain future. Graphic from www.stripes.com

More Pacific island tensions - this time between China and Japan

Lots of issues out there - the ongoing Yemen conflict, a new President elected in Somalia, Syria's continued bloodletting, the newest projection of when Iran might get a nuclear bomb, etc.

But a trend perhaps more newsworthy is the growing series of tensions over islands between Asian neighbors. Most, but not all have to do with China and its robust claims to a variety of island chains. The latest is a spat between Japan and China.

The Christian Science Monitor seems to be covering the story quite comprehensively, so much of the following comes from that news source.

The dispute, the article begins, between China and Japan is over the Senkaku Islands, five islets and three rocky outcroppings, and revolves around who got there first. China calls them the Diaoyu Islands and dates its authority there to the 14th century. Japan annexed them in 1895 after finding them uninhabited.

Japan's foreign ministry cites surveys in 1885 confirming they were "uninhabited" with "no trace of having been under the control of China." The government of Japan in January 1895 decided to incorporate the islands and to place a marker on one of them declaring them to be part of Japan. On the other hand, the Chinese claim that the islands appear on Ming Dynasty maps.

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The Senkaku islands - as Japan names them, or the Diaoyu islands according to the Chinese - are at the center of this latest tension.

We might first jump back to the aftermath of World War II when Japan was a defeated nation, and China was in the latter stages of a civil war between Mao's forces and those of the Nationalist government. US forces had driven the Japanese from the island prefecture of Okinawa in June 1945 in one of the last Pacific island battles of World War II. The islands, 220 miles southwest of Okinawa, had been governed by Okinawa under the Japanese.

As de facto holders of a variety of islands and territories after the end of the war, apparently neither the Communist government on the mainland nor the "Nationalist" Chinese government having retreating to the island province of Taiwan, objected when the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951 placed the islands under US administrative control.

The two Chinese governments - in Beijing and Taiwan - got interested in 1970 after a United Nations study showed there might be oil and gas in the seabed around the islands. The island cluster is 76 miles from Taiwan, 92 miles from the closest Japanese island, and 100 miles from the coast of China.

Oil and gas fields that are becoming increasingly viable for drilling may have something to do with the current escalation of tensions

Japan regained governing control in 1972 under the "reversion" of Okinawa to Japan. Since then, Japanese Coast Guard boats have been on regular patrol to prevent intrusion, mostly by Chinese fishing boats.

The original official "owner" was a Japanese man who set up a fish plant in the late 1800s, employing about 200 workers in the factory. The business survived for 50 years but finally failed in 1940 while Japanese forces were reigning supreme over much of China, the Korean Peninsula, and Southeast Asia more than a year before bombing Pearl Harbor. His family sold the islands to another Japanese family, and up to the present time, this new Kurihara family has been leasing the islands to the Japanese government.

Jumping forward to today, the islands are covered by jungle. There are no rivers, and fresh water from rainfall is at a premium. Certain wildlife exists, including rare species of moles and ants, however small goats, introduced more than 30 years ago, have multiplied and become a threat to vegetation.

Not much on these islands themselves

Apparently a proposal from Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara to buy the islands from the Kurihara family for the capital city's ownership was made - a gesture that not only upset the Chinese, but the Japanese government as well. And it is not just mainland China in this case who has its hackles raised. China and Taiwan are equally adamant about the Chinese claim to the islands. Nevertheless, the Japanese government on Tuesday, in order to clarify ownership - NOT to end disputed claims of sovereignty - signed a contract with the Kurihara family, the private owner of the islands.

While in this case, it appears Japan has brought forward an action that has upset an uneasy but quiet status quo, China has much of South Asia in a buzz over its own expansive claims of ownership further to the south. And China's anger over the Japanese purchase has resulted in Chinese patrol ships being sent to the islands waters - not exactly a cooling-of-tensions type of move.

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For further reading the Christian Science Monitor has an article titled, "Top 5 East Asia island disputes" at
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0803/East-Asia-s-top-5-island-disputes/Takeshima-Dokdo-islands-claimed-by-Japan-and-South-Korea