Turkey follows its own course: disappointing the West, infuriating its Kurdish citizens

One hesitates to write even MORE on the ISIS attack on a Syrian town, Kobani (or Korbane), located on the border with Turkey, but there are a few points worth emphasizing.

The situation

The town sits on the Turkey/Syria border - quite a new city, beginning in 1912 as a railway station. Before the Syrian civil war erupted nearly three years ago, its population was 44,000 and distributed among Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, and Armenians. Of interest, it was built by Germany, as part of the Berlin-Baghdad railway. (As the first World War raged, Armenians fleeing vicious fighting in eastern Turkey found shelter here - setting up a fascinating sidetrip into the raging controversy about an Armenian genocide by Turkey of old.) In 2012, as Syria was disintegrating,Syrian Kurds took control of the city as a base from which to fight against President Assad, as well as fend off the more extreme of the Islamist groups.


Called Ayn al-Arab by Arabs, and Kobani by Kurds, pictures of this town before the recent ISIS attacks are not easy to find ... Photo from hereandnow.wbur.org

Today, of course, the whole world is aware that the town is under siege by ISIS forces, who have already overrun the many villages around the region. The result, so far, is 400,000+ residents of the region are now on the move (internally displaced refugees), with 100,000+ of that number having fled across the border into Turkey.


As in any conflict, the fleeing precedes the fighting. Here Kobani residents (and from the surrounding countryside) stack up against the border with Turkey, waiting to get in. Photo from johnib.wordpress.com

If one just accepts the main thrust of Western coverage of this situation, we will be pulling our hair out, asking why our Western ally Turkey - a NATO member, and EU candidate - isn't leaping to the defense of the mainly Kurdish fighters in the city defending it against the ISIS advance. Subsequently, we are exasperated and bewildered by Turkey's lack of response.

And we've been treated again and again to three major types of images: Refugees watching their city falling slow motion to the fanatical ISIS, a rather lethargic line of U.S. jets merely pestering ISIS with a take-out of a vehicle here and there, and finally, a row of Turkish tanks squatting on the same hillside awaiting further orders.


A view of the hostilities from inside the Turkish border. Photo from www.novosti.rs


An explosion from a U.S jet strike in the city. Photo from www.ekurd.net


The most baffling, and well photographed, image of the past two weeks. Turkish tanks in a line near the border of Syria, facing Kobani. Meant to intimidate ISIS?, project potent power to the world?, or simply content (on order of the government in Ankara) to watch two of Turkey's foes fight each other. Photo from matometesimaxtuta.blog.fc2.com

What is going on?

The Turkish calculation

Simply put, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan doesn't view ISIS as his most immediate threat. Rather, he views Turkey's Kurdish population as potentially a bigger concern, most likely to his own power.

Turkey President Erdogan, walking a tightrope between the Syrian conflict (he wants Assad out); ISIS (he wants Western allies to handle it), and the defense of Kobani (he's not in a hurry to help the PKK Kurds).

Turkey's current boundaries, as so many others in the Middle East, are arbitrary, and in this country's case, include a broad swath of ethnic Kurd lands. Their inclusion in Turkey for nearly 100 years (based in the agreements after World War 1) has long been a struggle. Wikipedia puts it thus, "During the 1970s, the [Kurdish] separatist movement coalesced into the Marxist–Leninist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has since been listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey and a number of allied states and organizations around the world, including the United States, NATO, and the European Union. From 1984 to 1999, the Turkish military was embroiled in a conflict with the PKK." With the capture of the PPK leader, Abdullah Öcalan in 1999, the violence has since then tapered off, with desultory efforts by the government to unite the country in various manners.


Kobani, Syria - a Kurdish city located right on the border with Turkey. Go south from the "Y" in Turkey, heading to the "R" in Syria, and the town is right where that little bump is in the border. It is being defended by Kurds primarily aligned with the PKK. But one must admit that in spite of almost breathless Western concern for the city and its population, most of the residents have long fled, and the city isn't an ancient one.

From a Voice of America article, "Kobani was a test case for Kurdish autonomy, said Professor Ibrahim Sirkeci of Regents University in London. “They set up communes there. So it was kind of a little self-rule case study,” said Sirkeci. ... Kurds in Turkey have reacted angrily to Ankara’s stance and accuse the government of supporting the Islamic State. Riots in several cities have killed scores of people.

Kurdish separatists known as the PKK fought a decades-long war against the Turkish state, until peace talks began last year. Professor Sirkeci said Ankara is wary of strengthening the Kurds. “If you support PKK or fight against ISIS today in northern Syria, that will mean directly strengthening the PKK, and making it a stronger party in the negotiations, particularly within Turkey as part of the peace process,” he said.

Ankara does not share the Western view of the Kurds as allies, according to [Michael Stephens, head of the Royal United Services Institute in Qatar]. “They have made a calculation that ISIS and the administration of Kurdish Syria are both bad guys, and if ISIS wins it’s probably the lesser of two evils,” ...

He said allowing the fall of Kobani would backfire on Turkey. “I think in the long run it’s a disastrous policy simply because there are two other Kurdish cantons [in Syria], much larger with much better defenses, which won’t be taken. And are those going to be friendly to Turkey in the future? Absolutely not,” said Stephens."

P.S.

The PKK has labeled its forces People's Protection Units (YPG) while the Kurdish fighters in Iraq are called Peshmerga. Kurds across the two lands - the autonomous Kurd region in Iraq, and the eastern portion of Turkey - both freely utilize women as fighters and support personnel (similar to Israel).


Female YPG fighters and commanders in the PKK. Photo from revolution-news.com

For women fighters or for men, there is no mercy shown to any captured by ISIS.


A reminder of the brutish savagery of ISIS. Here a happy extremist holds the head of a female Syrian Kurd fighter. Photo from en.shiapost.com

So, there we stand.

* The Kurds of Turkey (and apparently those in Northern Syria) are NOT those of the Kurdish lands of Iraq.

* Erdogan has already angered Turkish Kurds by preventing a flow of Kurdish fighters wanting to cross back into Syria to defend Kobani, as well as controlling the extent of arms and ammunition heading to the Kurds in the besieged town.

* Though Turkey has provided safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, including Syrian Kurds, Erdogan has now sent the message to the Kurds of Turkey that the Kurds of Syria are NOT worth Turkish blood.

* Thus he risks a general re-alienation of the eastern portion of his country negating prior efforts to integrate Kurds into the mainstream of Turkish society.

* Kobani may yet be lost to ISIS, a massacre of the remaining population in the city may or may not happen. Journalists report that several hundred elderly remain trapped in the city, but solid numbers and facts are hard to come by.

* The fate of Kobani is hardly the end of the conflict with ISIS, but it may represent the beginning of a much bigger internal problem for Turkey.

Latvian anxieties influence its latest election

It is fall in Northern Europe - and real fall in one of the Northernmost European countries not on the Scandinavian peninsula.

The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Summer is short, and now it is over. Graphic from www.lesechos.fr

In Latvia, the middle of the Baltic three, an election just took place that resulted in a return of a center-right coalition to governance, consisting of three parties, the Unity party, the Nationalist Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers.

What's the significance?

From a Reuters news article, "Years of austerity after the global financial crisis have dented the coalition government's popularity. But the conflict in Ukraine has shifted focus from the economy to security in a country where ethnic Russians make up almost 21 percent of voters and have heavily backed the pro-Russian opposition Concord party.

Augusts Brigmanis, leader of the Union of Greens and Farmers summed it up this way, "That is what the voter expects from us: stability for the country, a steady political course and Western values, and we will guarantee that..."


Mr Brigmanis, the 62-yr old leader of the Union of Greens and Farmers party. Photo from www.delfi.lv

Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma stated, "This election is different because of what is going on in Ukraine ... The situation is escalating there again and people are worried what will happen because we have a border with Russia." Straujuma has increased defense spending and joined Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania in pressing for a bigger NATO presence in their nations.


Laimdota Strujuma, leader of the Unity party and currently the Latvian Prime Minister, has emphasized suspicions regarding Russian restlessness across a number of former USSR satellite nations.

The coalition upped its number of seats in Parliament to 61 from 47, while Harmony (or alternatively called Concord), a center-left party garnered 24 seats. While this opposition party espouses "equality, justice and solidarity," it is perceived as a pro-Russian party in a nation where ethnic Russians comprise over 21 percent of Latvia's population.

It might not have gone this way without the Russian meddling in Ukraine and the bold takeover of the Crimean Peninsula. Now, the large majority of Latvians are in no mood to ignore Russian assertiveness.

A couple interesting points.

What is a Green Party doing in a centre-right coalition? For that matter, what is the connection between Greens and farmers?

Apparently, the Green party in Latvia is much more centrist than leftist as in much of Western Europe. And from Wikipedia, "Latvians are supportive of traditional small farms and perceive them as more environmentally friendly than large-scale farming: Nature is threatened by development, while small farms are threatened by large industrial-scale farms. This perception has resulted in an alliance between green and farmer's parties, which is very rare in other countries."


Latvia has steadfastly supported its small farm heritage. Photo from pulitzercenter.org

(This sounds vaguely similar to Modi's concerns clear around the globe in India, where he steadfastly supports space for India's myriad small farmers facing industrial, transnational food industries in so much of the West.

Winter in Latvia is tense, from a geopolitical legacy.

From a Policy Review source, we read, "Latvia is one of the most energy import dependent countries in the EU. With the exception of peat and timber, Latvia had no significant domestic energy resources and received 93% of its imported energy from Soviet republics in 2007."


Mechanized peat harvesting in Latvia. Photo from www.legro.nl

It also has a large legacy of Soviet era apartment blocs with inefficient heating and power designs. So Latvia is very much aware of its over-dependence on Russian gas supplies and is working steadily to increase diversity in its sources.


Old Soviet era apartment blocks in Liepāja, Latvia. Photo from en.wikipedia.org

Well, let's keep Latvians in mind as winter approaches. They are nervous about Russian energy reliability, as much as they are about the Russian state agitating among the 20 percent of the population that is Russian. And by happenstance, Latvia is poised to take over the European Union's rotating six-month presidency in January.

A couple more pictures of this country of just two million.


Riga, Latvia's capital. Photo by Aleksandrs Kendenkovs, courtesy of the Latvian Institute, www.latvia.lv


Winter in Latvia - heating and energy are important. Photo from www.aidi.lv

PS. Another rarity, Latvia's Defense Minister,Raimonds Vējonis, is from the Union of Greens and Farmers party ..

A Cathedral Rises in Romania

Romania, an eastern European country, former Soviet satellite, but now a prospering member of the EU and NATO. The country has a population of over 20 million, but is now a little nervous with the confrontation between Russia and neighboring Ukraine. Map from www.danubedelta.delta-dunarii.info

To this country bumpkin, Romania is a bit of a mystery. Teatree thinks of it as one of those former Soviet Union satellites that was run by a particularly coarse and nasty duo, Nicolae Ceaușescu and his wife Elena. Romania was one of the few countries that suffered some violence during the collapse of the Soviet Empire. And then of course, there was a Romanian gymnast, Nadia Comaneci...

The strongman Nicolae and his wife Elena prior to 1989 ... Photo from the BBC

Mr CeauSescu came to power in 1965, approved apparently by the Soviet Politburo. Over time, he built his own platform of power and ran a slightly independent course from the USSR. In the later years, he and his wife Elena emphasized their own egos by concentrating on a cult of personality (think Kim Jong-Un in North Korea).

This is how the official court painter portrayed the CeauSescu's, with the court poet pronouncing him a “lay god” with a voice of “planetary resonance.” Sycophant Romanian newspapers referred to him as “the Genius of the Carpathians” and compared him to Napoleon. Photo of painting at http://bluenred.com

Increasingly isolated from the Romanian population, they were stunned as the Soviet Empire collapsed with the various Eastern European communist governments falling in rapid order. After street mayhem in the capital Bucharest, the CeauSescu's attempted to flee the People's Palace on December 22, 1989 (they had this built earlier as the symbol of their national seat of power). However, within hours, the CeauSescu's were captured nearby, tried by a hastily assembled military tribunal (on charges of genocide, damage to the national economy and abuse of power), convicted on all charges, and immediately executed on Christmas Day 1989 - just three days later.

If one is a dictator, and all these people in front of your palace are against you, it is likely not going to be your best day ... Photo in 1989 of the demonstrations in Bucharest in front of the Palace of the Parliament, from www.dailymail.co.uk

Romania's new direction since 1989

As with many former USSR satellite countries, Romania regrouped with its new freedom, creating a western style democracy, worked on its economy, etc. etc. What is a little different and controversial, is a surge of rebuilding churches across the land. Romanians are 90% Orthodox, and their religious buildings suffered greatly under the CeauSescu regime - many buildings bulldozed for various reasons, and many more shuttered under state atheism. In a BBC article in 2013, the building of new churches was going on at a rate of one every three days.

A rather beautiful new Orthodox church ... photo from www.patheos.com

Another ... photo from www.patheos.com

The building spree has become controversial. It highlights a close connection between the Orthodox church and the government (a bright line in the US, though much less so in many Western democracies - think of Great Britain and the Anglican Church, progressive Sweden which had its state church right up to 2000, etc). There is public money in a poor country being used for building churches when many critics say the money should be spent on other priorities.

The ornateness inherent to the Eastern Orthodox church is rather amazing. Photo from www.sgroc.org

But others say that the CeauSescu government destroyed many church assets, so it is right that the government redress that damage.

The biggest is yet to come

With the monies being spent, past grievances being dealt with, there remains the biggest project of them all. A huge new Eastern Orthodox church is being built right across from the monumental Palace of the Parliament (renamed from the People's Palace).

Called the Cathedral for the Salvation of Romanian People, plans for its construction began in 1990. Once built, the cathedral complex will include the cathedral building itself; , a soup kitchen with capacity for 1000 below the cathedral building; two hotels; and parking for about 500 cars. The cathedral is designed with seating for approximately 5,000 worshipers (though for Americans this amount of room is merely a mini-megachurch ...). One can assume there are several statements being made - "the church more important than man's governments" ? "I can mispend money too" ?

The new Cathedral going up next to the People's Palace. Photo from 2013 at www.johnsanidopoulos.com

CeauSescu's infamous People's Palace - at the time, the second largest public institution in the world, right behind the US Pentagon ... Photo from www.ungersteel.com

A rendering of the new complex - it seems as this will beat the People's Palace in size.... If one wishes to see a video on the new project, access the one here ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAELHDNKzik

Well, we can muse, click our tongues thinking of what else might be built with the money, but we all know there are much more destructive forces at work in the world. We can wish the Romanians much good will, and hope for a tad more humility among religious, government, and corporate leaders wherever we encounter them.

Ebola surges - West African countries struggle

The news regarding the Ebola eruption in small West African countries continues to darken. The death toll is now over 2600, with Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone the hardest hit. This number of deaths is a major jump from just over 1000 deaths in early August.

In a blog post back in late March this year, we were talking about fruit bats being the reservoir for the virus and Guinea banning bat meat at its markets. At the moment there is no concern over the reservoir, as the virus is out and raging through humans.

The three small hard hit countries - Nigeria has had a few confirmed cases as well. Graphic from www.wltx.com

Yes, just a few months ago in March, there was no real awareness of an effective vaccine. 6 months later, there appears to be something of value - ZMapp - though it has still not been properly tested as in a clinical trial on humans. The lack of testing did not stop several Westerners and two Liberian doctors from getting dosages, however, and behind the headlines, there is no doubt a frenzied effort to evaluate the vaccine for real results and possible widespread use.

Unfortunately, the Spanish priest and one of the Liberian doctors did not survive, unlike two Americans - one doctor, one missionary - who did after being flown back the the U.S. for intensive treatment.

American Ebola patients Dr Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol are among those who have received the experimental Ebola cure. Photo from kfor.com

ZMapp, the experimental Ebola drug is produced by Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc. a California-based company. The company said after a few doses handed out "that in responding to a request from an unidentified West African country, it had run out of its supply of the treatment." From a CBS report in late August, "it is expected to be months before more can be produced by its U.S. maker. Health experts caution that the drug had never been tested in humans before and it was unclear whether it actually works. It appeared to help two Americans who received it, but experts note there is a huge gap between the treatment the two Americans got at an Atlanta hospital, where five infectious disease experts and 21 nurses provided rigorous care, and the medical care available to victims in West Africa, where even such basics as sterile fluids can be in short supply."

The Spanish priest, 75 year old Miguel Pajares, seen here being unloaded at a Spanish air force base in mid August, did not survive the virus. Photo from theblaze.com

So on to the brave health workers

Teatree thinks it appropriate to highlight the bravery of Liberian, Guinean, and Sierra Leone health workers who are stepping up to challenge the disease. Among the thousands of deaths, many are health workers, beyond family members who were on the immediate front lines.

A Liberian health worker at a checkpoint near the international airport at a checkpoint near Dolo Town, Liberia. Photo from CNN

Liberian health workers remove an Ebola victim from a residence. Photo from www.khou.com

Sierra Leone declares a curfew and widespread search for infected citizens

Late this week, the government of Sierra Leone declared a three-day curfew across the country of 6 million, while a "surge" of health workers would systematically search for those suffering from Ebola. From the BBC, "Sierra Leone is one of the countries worst hit by West Africa's Ebola outbreak, with more than 550 victims among the 2,600 deaths so far recorded. In the capital, Freetown, normally bustling streets were quiet, with police guarding roadblocks. During the curfew, 30,000 volunteers will look for people infected with Ebola, or bodies, which are especially contagious. They will hand out bars of soap and information on preventing infection. Officials say the teams will not enter people's homes but will call emergency services to deal with patients or bodies. Volunteers will mark each house with a sticker after they have visited it, reports say.

Sierra Leone surveyors train on wearing protective gear. Photo from BBC

On Thursday, President Ernest Bai Koroma said: "Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures." He urged citizens to avoid touching each other, visiting the sick or avoid attending funerals. Freetown resident Christiana Thomas told the BBC: "People are afraid of going to the hospital because everyone who goes there is tested for Ebola." Another resident in Kenema, in the east of the country, told the BBC families were struggling because the price of food had gone up. In the hours leading up to Sierra Leone's lockdown, there was traffic gridlock in Freetown as people stocked up on food and essentials."

Social unrest

With such a deadly contagion, citizens are fearful, angry, and suspicious. Eight individuals - a team of health workers, local officials, and journalists - in Guinea were attacked and killed by villagers who had armed themselves with machetes and clubs. In other instances, hospitals are avoided and talked of as where Ebola is spread. A New York Times article noted, "A fear of contagion ... “aversion behavior” is driving most of the economic losses. Panic is closing places of employment, disrupting transportation and severing air and sea links with other nations, the analysis found.

So these countries are now struggling deeply - the fragile social fabric in normal times is fraying.

Responses from outside the infected countries? Kind of tardy.

While the UN works ponderously to develop a response, Doctors without Borders and the World Health Organization (WHO) have moved towards the region in various ways.

The most striking response to date is from the U.S. where in mid September, President Obama directed 3000 military to engage on the ground, providing medicine and equipment to augment the national responses, as well as $750 million in aid dollars. From the Economist, "His move follows earlier, more modest, commitments from countries such as Cuba and China (each is sending about 170 people) and Britain, which will build a 62-bed hospital. Commitments from other countries look even more paltry. Germany will provide a few million dollars, the European Union is giving $15.5m (though it is giving 12 times that amount in general humanitarian aid) and a laboratory."

Aid is also arriving from other neighboring African countries, in this case, supplies from Ghana. Photo from www.cnn.com

Deadly and tragic, and not nearly over.

A Blue Recovery

Taking a break from humanity's woes, let's celebrate the news this week that the Blue whale population has apparently stepped back from the brink of 40 years ago, and is now in healthy territory in one of the three major groups - in this case, those living between the North Pacific and the California Coast.

The Blue Whale - (Balaenoptera musculus)- belonging to the baleen whales family. Nearly 100 feet long and weighing 190 tons or more, it is the largest existing animal on the planet. Yet,as with the baleen family, its diet mainly consists of tiny krill. Photo from The Guardian

From 1905 to 1971, the Blue whale population plummeted from whale harvesting. When the Blue whale was given protected status in the early 70's, its population was still at risk from increasing ocean traffic.

Blue whales and other species remain at risk from ocean shipping, though increasingly shipping lanes are being modified to avoid known migration routes and seasonal concentrations. Photo from www.hln.be

Blues, along with other species have identified migration routes between their summer and winter homes. Graphic from rofl-lol.com

The largest Blue concentration is that found in the Northern Pacific, with a population over 2000. An equally sized concentration, though much less understood or counted is found in around Antarctica and between India and Australia. A third, but much smaller concentration of 500 (clearly plus or minus) is found in the North Atlantic - between Greenland and Iceland.

Tracking and monitoring of Blue whales has been much stronger among the North Pacific population. Graphic from comlmaps.org

Blue off Greenland ... actually this is a photoshopped picture to be used for wallpaper on one's computer desktop, but WHY NOT?? We're celebrating! from walpix.net

Now it's the UAE ...

We'll make it quick - another post on the spreading conflicts across the Arab world. This time one of the small conservative monarchies that usually receives little attention, the United Arab Emirates, is involved.

Where is the UAE?

Answer, it is in a rather delicate location, ie. a key location, making up the peninsula of land that separates the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean. Which means the UAE sits with a bird's eye view of over 35% of the world's sea-borne oil traffic (in a rather unstable region to say the least).

The UAE, like a thorn poised to puncture a balloon loaded with oil ... Though if one looks closely at the map, the actual point of the thorn is an exclave of Oman. Graphic from wikipedia.

Iran, all the land to the right in this photo, has long declared its intentions to sink a few of those oil tankers traveling through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, if it felt threatened. Photo from www.infowars.com

Oil tankers threading through a number of military vessels. Teatree isn't sure if this congestion is normal, or from one of many tension-filled spats in the recent past. Photo from www.newsbomb.gr

Wikipedia states "UAE's total population was 9.2 million; 1.4 million Emirati citizens and 7.8 million expatriates." Somewhere close to the truth, though estimates range from 3.8 million native Arabic speaking citizens and the balance are foreign workers. The point is that there are substantially more non-native dwellers - a situation that is alleviated by the fact that citizens and residents alike in the small set of emirates enjoy a wealthy income average.

Established in late 1971, the country is a federation of seven emirates (equivalent to principalities). Each emirate is governed by a hereditary emir who jointly form the Federal Supreme Council, the highest legislative and executive body in the country. One of the emirs is selected as the President of the United Arab Emirates. The constituent emirates are Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain. The capital is Abu Dhabi, which is one of the two centers of commercial and cultural activities, together with Dubai.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai are the UAE's two major cities - it is rather hard to believe the wealth and commercial buildings that have been built up in this small country. Photo from www.sohbetna.com

Where are a lot of those workers from? Again from Wikipedia, "UAE and India are each other's main trading partners, with the latter having many of its citizens working and living in the former."

Actually an interesting picture that shows ethnic UAE arabs and many Indian office workers. They were evacuating the breathtaking high towers, after some earthquake tremors in 2013. Photo from www.daijiworld.com

What's UAE been up to?

Soberingly enough, last week the UAE, in partnership with Egypt who provided support from its western air bases, sent fighter jets to the North African coast, to bomb Islamist positions surrounding Libya's main airport in Tripoli. Egypt and the UAE, and one supposes other Arab nations are acting on their own to support a faction in Libya more to their liking than Islamist militias.

A UAE F-16 fighter jet in an unrelated photo, but likely the model used in action in Libya. Photo from Canada's National Post

Libya, of course, was the showcase three years ago for Western powers on how to depose a ruthless dictator Colonel Ghadaffi and usher in an Arab version of democracy all with relatively risk free cruise missiles and bombers. An all-important endorsement at the time of the Arab League for brief, limited intervention was deemed and trumpeted as essential, and expectations were that Libya could steadily move forward with representative elections. However, as the US and Western allies' narratives of smart diplomacy and international coalitions as the correct approach began to diverge while the continued conflicts and fighting between militias escalated, a vacuum of leadership and power emerged and deepened, complete with dueling parliaments. Now,the UAE and Egypt have opted to go it alone in support of their own interests in Egypt's neighbor, not even bothering to communicate with the Western nations ahead of time.

A very cleaned up map of Libya, that nonetheless hints at some of the ancient ethnic lines running through this artificially constructed nation-state. Graphic from www.telegraph.co.uk

Smoke rises from the area near Libya's main airport in Tripoli after UAE airstrikes in support of a Libyan General's forces fighting Islamist militias. (However, in spite of the airstrikes, Islamists - under the banner of "Dawn of Libya" - still took control of the airport) For an illuminating article, read this by The Guardian newspaper last week.

A fair number of airplanes now sit on Tripoli airport tarmac, damaged by fighting. Photo from Reuters

That's it. Libya is splintering, many sides are available to be backed, the UAE has felt compelled to participate, and Western powers are sidelined across the region, as the Arab world unravels.

ISIS, boundaries, and porous borders

A long time ago in a galaxy far far away, the Middle East was a place of calm and brotherly-love. All the boundaries between nations accurately reflected ethnic concentrations and had done so since ages past (except for the arbitrary borders of a vast region on the Mediterranean sea occupied by the warlike Zionist entity).

Peaceful and wise governance could be found everywhere – Saddam Hussein did not gas his own people in the village of Halabja in 1988, he did not invade and terrorize Kuwait in 1991, he did not slaughter over 100,000 Shiites in the aftermath of that war that didn't happen, he was not a major funding source for the families of brave Palestinian suicide martyrs fighting against the lone evil in the region – aggressive, oppressive Israel - and finally he did not send rockets into said Israel during the 1991 war that did not happen.

But in 2003, US forces at the order of President George W Bush and his Vice President Cheney, invaded and occupied the long-time secure and sensible boundaries of Iraq where Kurds, Sunnis and Shias lived in geographically connected harmonious bliss, ruled by what might be conceded the firm but fatherly hand of Saddam Hussein. And since that single unprecedented day, and those dreadful years following till 2009 when Bush left office, that peaceful land has not been able to recover, nor any of the nations of the Arab world. Indeed, across all the Arab lands, little divisions have sprung up and coalesced, through no fault of any, into extremist factions of various kinds, where not one existed before (except those groups of would-be martyrs who were only seeking to right the wrongs perpetrated by Israeli occupation of the sacred-since-ages-past, inviolate land of Palestine).

And thus IS (ISIS, ISIL), the most evil result of them all, has surfaced – the consummate end product of the Bush-Cheney imperialist adventure.


The new Islamic State's caliphate - sacred national Arab boundaries be damned. Graphic from jackspotpourri.blogspot.com

The atrocities of IS speak volumes and are clear enough for anyone who wants to take note. Massacres, crucifixions, torture, rape, beheadings, kidnappings of women for wedding prizes - all are amply reported on, though somewhat jarring to reconcile with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (now calling himself “Caliph Ibrahim”) invitation to Muslims to migrate to his land. Though the kindly call for doctors and engineers to build the caliphate has been extended, as noted in an article by the UK Daily Mail, "not a single Muslim country has seen a mass exodus of people keen to live under his version of sharia."


The latest Islamic psychopath, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (aka "Caliph Ibrahim”) apparently likes his Rolex ... Photo from news.nationalpost.com

National Arabic boundaries

If nothing else, the IS caliphate shows the myth of secure and ethnically sensible boundaries in the Arab world. This group doesn't care, and it scorns the placement of borders by European powers nearly 100 years previous. Yet the larger story is that everywhere in the world, borders have been placed arbitrarily, the result of conflicts or negotiation, or some combination thereof, and has little to do with how the modern governments of any region decide to work with neighbors - friendly or hostile.

Regarding the Middle East, one can start with the Ottoman Empire that was essentially broken up at the end of World War I. The first two maps below show the Middle East in rapid change from 1914 to 1940, while the third map highlights the one and only set of borders (of Israel) that is intolerable to all the other entities whose borders were arbitrarily drawn at the same time ...


The Arab world - before World War I. Graphic from lostislamichistory.com (which is also a very worthwhile website)



The Arab world - before World War II. Graphic from lostislamichistory.com


Yes, that thorn in the Arab side has just as long a history of existence as do virtually all the boundaries of its neighbors. Graphic from forthegrandchildren.blogspot.com


National boundaries today. Graphic from www.hotelsinthemiddleeast.com

So the boundaries of the Middle East nations are suddenly being exposed as fragile and arbitrary as they are - the real challenge is governance. Have the Kurds, based on their relatively sound governance in the midst of a broken Iraq, suddenly found an opening to assert their own entity?

Just for fun, here's how a map of the Middle East might look if it were more representative of major ethnic groupings. Click on the image to see a larger, more readable version.


Ralph Peters, a former United States Army Lieutenant Colonel drew a map in 2006, which created quite an outcry at the time. But note, according to a post at www.geographictravels.com "how the proposal for Syria mirrors what is going on now with the Kurds going their own way and the coastal area becoming an Alawite enclave aligned with Hizbollah in Lebanon." Graphic from www.geographictravels.com

Porous borders

We've talked at length in various posts about refugees and internally displaced peoples around the world and in trouble spots. But the borders Teatree speaks of is in regard to the many young ISIS jihadists from across Europe who have gone to the Middle East, gaining expertise in killings and mayhem, and who also have passports to return home. While ISIS currently terrorizes the lands of Syria and Iraq (both likely to disintegrate), the concern of Western and indeed other Muslim nations' intelligence agencies is how to track hundreds of fighters who hold the option of returning to their own lands over the next few years.

British Islamists protest outside the French Embassy in London January 12, 2013. Reuters. Photo from rt.com


Possible returnees by the numbers. Graphic from USNews.com


In the UK, according to an article in www.jihadwatch.org, "Communities have been bombarded with the posters, which read: “˜You are entering a Sharia-controlled zone ““ Islamic rules enforced.” The bright yellow messages daubed on bus stops and street lamps have already been seen across certain boroughs in London and order that in the “˜zone” there should be “˜no gambling”, “˜no music or concerts”, “˜no porn or prostitution”, “˜no drugs or smoking” and “˜no alcohol”." Photo from www.jihadwatch.org

The cauldron continues to roil, the heat is still rising.