Debacle in Syria - a presidential election amid gas attacks

Now overshadowed by the West-Russia confrontation in Ukraine, there is apparent growing consensus that Syrian President "Bashar al-Assad and his leadership are there to stay" as a new BBC article puts it.

The Syrian opposition, early dominated by a young demographic wishing for an "Arab Spring" in their own land, has morphed through various phases - from a militarized but responsible opposition that was essentially starved out by possible Western aid, to the current splintered, radicalized, rebels, dominated by hateful Islamic extremists of various sorts, each in turn supported by regional powers with their own agendas.

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2009 marches for better Syrian governance were, in hindsight, impossibly naive and optimistic. Photo from ctv.news

Syria's Assad was bolstered early on by steady, robust Russian military and non military aid, as well as forceful intervention by Iran's Hezbollah, coming from Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah may have their own agendas, ie creating an arc of influence from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea, but in the process, found supporting Assad was part of that calculation.

The regional actors: former Iran President Ahmadinejad, beleaguered Syrian President Assad, and Islamic leader of Hezbollah, Nassrallah. The fourth influential supporter, Russia's President Putin, is busy elsewhere ... Photo from www.ipsnews.net

Assad's use of chemical weapons in the summer of 2013 was a horrific act and political miscalculation that almost, almost, resulted in a significant Western intervention. But diplomacy "won" the day, resulting in an agreement to remove the chemical weapons arsenal from Syria.

From marches asking for reform, to today's ghostly ruins and chemical weapon use against its own people, Syria's Assad and his allies leave this legacy. Photo from www.popularresistance.org

Now, nearly 9 months on, 80-90% of the chemical percursors have been removed, leaving Assad apparently free for the occasional use of basic chlorine gas attacks. Chlorine is an element not under WMD classification, so any negotiations to prevent its use for this horrific specific purpose will be safely stretched out over months, if not years, if at all.

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Syrian children caught up in the latest gas attack by their government. Okay, to use moderate and enlightened diplomacy-speak, Teatree will insert "allegedly" into the picture caption. Photo from www.therepublic.com

A multi-year effort to bring a negotiated end to the conflict, led by the US, and artfully opposed by Russia (with Iran and Hezbollah in quiet agreement), has effectively petered out due to the new Russian incursion into Ukraine, where once again the US believes its own negotiating prowess (with virtually no track record to support such faith) will win the day.

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U.S. President Obama, symbolically just barely relevant to the occasion as illustrated in this photo, has also been left sputtering over Russia's military move into the Crimean peninsula (followed by a quick referendum that formalized the takeover), "That is not how-- international-- law and international norms are observed in the 21st century." Photo from offshorebalancer.wordpress.com

So, on we go to a Syrian Presidential election set for June. As the BBC article puts it, "The pressures on Mr Assad are now so light that he is preparing to have himself re-elected for another full seven-year term, rather than opting for a compromise two-year extension, an idea kicked around a few months ago when diplomacy was active."

Taken in March 2014, from Assad's own facebook page. Assad, his wife, and various synchophants ... Photo and description from gulfnews.com

Want to bet on who will win?

Destroying Assad's chemical weapons a multinational effort

Four months ago in September, after the UN and western nations found Syrian President Assad had indeed used chemical weapons on his citizens and rebels, the leader agreed under pressure to destroy his arsenal of Sarin, Mustard gas and VX nerve gas. The agreement, a result of delicate and intense negotiations between the US and Russia, envisioned a series of steps to that end.

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Despite initial sputtering angry denials by Assad's regime, UN and ultimately world leaders agreed that he had authorized and used nerve gas shells on concentrations of rebels intermixed with Syrian citizens. Animals are collateral damage ... photo from baomai.blogspot.com

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... as were babies and children. Photo from de.nachrichten.yahoo.com

As a CNN article at the time wrote, "initial inspections of declared chemical weapons sites must be completed by November; all production and mixing and filling equipment must be destroyed by November; and all chemical weapons material must be eliminated by mid-2014."

High stakes conversation between US Secretary of State, John Kerry (left), and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) over identifying, inventorying, removing, and destroying Syrian chemical weapons in an 11 month time frame, in the middle of a civil war. Photo from Pakistani Business Recorder - September 13, 2013

In fact, as the halfway point arrives, there has been substantive progress. In a USA Today article, it was estimated that Syrian leader Assad's military had about 1,000 metric tons of deadly chemicals and precursors, including nerve agents and mustard gas. "Most of the chemicals are precursors, which can be collected and then shipped out of the country, said Paul Walker, an analyst at Green Cross International, an environmental group based in Geneva."

By the end of October, Syria had submitted an inventory of weapons caches and volumes, and UN inspectors had confirmed the details at nearly all sites. At the same time, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN authorized entity overseeing the implementation and adherence to the agreement - announced it was satisfied that the planned destruction of CW production, mixing and munition-filling capability had also been met.

UN authorized inspectors in the fall of 2013 ready to dismantle some mixing equipment in Syrian chemical weapons depots. Photo from Washington Post

The tricky part remains

Assuming all has gone as reported, that now leaves the 1200 tons (updated estimate by on-the-ground inspectors) of chemicals in various states of toxicity to be removed from the country, and then destroyed. On November 15 the OPCW approved a plan to transport Syria's chemical weapons to a location outside its territory by February 5, 2014, where the weapons would then be destroyed.

Russia has offered armored vehicles to transport the material to Syrian ports. By the end of December, according to http://groundreport.com "Russia has delivered 75 up armored trucks to Syria, along with other equipment that will be used to transport Syrian chemical weapons arsenal to sites for systematic destruction, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported. “Over the three days from December 18-20 we have airlifted to the Latakia airport 75 vehicles, including 50 Kamaz trucks and 25 Ural armored trucks,” in 38 flights.

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Russian vehicles such as these will move chemicals from Syria proper to the port city of Latakia.

Norway and Denmark have agreed to transport the chemicals from Lakatia, Syria to Italy where most will be handed over to the United States, some to the UK, and less dangerous chemicals to unnamed chemical companies.

Danish frigates to be used to transport Syrian chemicals. Photo from www.giornalisticalabria.it

Italian port of Gioia Tauro (in the southern Italian region of Calabria) handles "dangerous" shipments of chemicals routinely, though this specific exercise caused a fair amount of concern across the country. Photo by REUTERS/Alessandro Bianchi/Files

The US will destroy the highest priority chemicals in a specially outfitted ship, the Cape Ray, while priority number 2 chemicals will be destroyed in the UK after transport there by the Royal Navy.

The Cape Ray left the Portsmouth New Hampshire shipyard in early January after being set up to destroy the most dangerous chemicals at sea (in international waters in the Mediterranean).

While it is easy to write a few sentences explaining the procedure - these pictures remind Teatree that the implementation involves real people, real equipment, lots of planning, lots of security. It appears the timetable has slipped a bit, but we shall see. Ironic that Russia will be hosting the Olympics in Sochi with heavy security to thwart terror threats, while transporting chemical weapons out of an allied country it robustly supports.

End game approaches in Syria?

While the Western world's attention (and mine) is focused on the Boston Marathon bombing early this week (of which the Chechnya angle will be looked at in my next post), more ominous developments occurred regarding the ongoing Syrian civil war.

Update
The UN estimates the death toll now stands at 70,000 as of late February and accelerating, with over 10,000 killed in that first 7 week period of this year alone. From a recent February Reuters article, "Syria is self-destructing," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday. "After nearly two years, we no longer count days in hours, but in bodies. Another day, another 100, 200, 300 dead." "Fighting rages. Sectarian hatred is on the rise. The catalogue of war crimes is mounting," he said. "The Security Council must no longer stand on the sidelines, deadlocked, silently witnessing the slaughter."

Aleppo, Syria's 2nd largest city, is slowly being pummeled into a vast wasteland of concrete and rebar.

"The lack of consensus on Syria and the resulting inaction has been disastrous and civilians on all sides have paid the price," said [Navi Pillay, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights]. "We will be judged against the tragedy that has unfolded before our eyes." World powers are divided on how to stop the escalating violence in Syria ... Permanent Security Council members Russia and China have acted as Syria's protector on the council by repeatedly blocking Western efforts to take stronger U.N. action - such as sanctions - against the Syrian government to try to end the war. Both sides to the Syrian conflict have been accused of committing atrocities but the United Nations says the government and its allies have been more culpable."

China and Russia voted to oppose a UN proposal in 2012 that would have imposed a no-fly zone on Syria. Russian Ambassador to the UN - Vitaly Churkin; China ambassador to the UN - Li Baodong (image taken from return2source.wordpress.com)

Besides the appalling death toll, over 1 million Syrians have become either refugees (primarily across the borders into Turkey and Jordan but also to Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt) or are internally displaced. The basic infrastructure of the country - water,sewer and roads - are being demolished, as well as a variety of culturally significant structures and sites.

Fleeing by the numbers according to this CNN graphic

Refugee camps in both Jordan and Turkey are overloaded, but nonetheless better by far than more informal and rudimentary conditions of those Syrians displaced within the country itself.

Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-qaeda

Western sources, as well as factions within the Syrian opposition were dismayed by the announcement of one of the larger rebel factions that it was formally aligning itself with al-Qaeda. "The sons of Al-Nusra Front pledge allegiance to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri," Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said in a recording.

Al-nusra fighters in Syria. This faction has been labeled by the US as a terrorist organization...

From an AFP article, "A decision by the head of al-Nusra Front to pledge allegiance to Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has prompted unprecedented criticism from some of Syria’s Islamist rebel brigades. Until now, rebels had sought to bury their differences with al-Nusra, reluctant to jeopardize ties with a force that is militarily superior to most of the country’s rebel factions. But an announcement this week by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, claiming al-Nusra as part of its network, and a pledge of allegiance from al-Nusra’s chief to Zawahiri have prompted rare direct and public criticism. “When we in Syria launched our jihad (holy war) against the sectarian regime... we did not do so for the sake of any allegiance to a man here or another there,” the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front, an umbrella group of rebel brigades, said in a statement on Thursday.

The announcement underscores a longstanding concern of Western allies that the Free Syria movement is increasingly infiltrated and radicalized by Islamic extremists, and ironically boosts Syrian President Assad's stance that he is fighting against Islamists.

US sending contingent to Jordan (aid now, but planning for a larger force with a more significant task)

From the AP, "The Pentagon is sending about 200 soldiers from an Army headquarters unit to Jordan to assist efforts to contain violence along the Syrian border and plan for any operations needed to ensure the safety of chemical weapons in Syria, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told Congress Wednesday." The development ups the ante for the US which has long resisted any significant military deployment connected to the Syrian conflict. The unit sent however, is not just one of generic "soldiers" but the 1st Armored Division's contingent of planners and specialists in intelligence, logistics and operations.

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Training camp inside Jordan but near Syrian border, similar to where US planners are now headed in greater numbers. Little acknowledged are the presence of UK troops with similar intent.

The deployment indicates the seriousness with which the US and other Western countries are viewing the creep of developments in Syria. Jordan has long resisted any significant presence of Western troops inside its country, as Jordanian islamists are sure to use the news to bolster their criticism. However, the increasing likelihood that Syria's chemical weapons arsenal will be in danger of being captured or transferred to Islamic elements has trumped those calculations.

Israel becoming very restless

Finally, Israel, long focused on Iran's growing nuclear capability, has acted only once in the Syrian civil war, attacking a convoy of weapons apparently headed to Lebanon in late January, 2013. Its military, though, is increasingly concerned that chemical weapons as well as advanced weaponry held by Assad's government may find their way into even more extremist hands.

In late January 2013, Israeli warplanes attacked a weapons convoy headed from Syria to Lebanon - details of what was targeted are not available to the "general public" and government reactions around the world were uniformly minimal - which usually signals it was a serious matter and that there is little to gain from acknowledging the action.

Events seem to be moving towards an uncertain end ... sometime in the next weeks or months.

Two apologies

Last week, there were two incidents from which we should take heart. In the opaque and often zero-sum (win-lose) world of diplomacy or positioning, there were three nations involved in two apologies.

From the Guardian newspaper, "Australian prime minister Julia Gillard delivered a historic national apology in parliament on Thursday [March 21] to the thousands of unwed mothers who were forced by government policies to give up their babies for adoption over several decades. More than 800 people, many of them in tears, heard the apology and responded with a standing ovation.

Prime Minister Gillard speaking before Parliament and mothers who lost their children to questionable adoption procedures. Photo from Australian Broadcasting Service

"Today this parliament, on behalf of the Australian people, takes responsibility and apologises for the policies and practices that forced the separation of mothers from their babies, which created a lifelong legacy of pain and suffering," Gillard told the audience. "We acknowledge the profound effects of these policies and practices on fathers and we recognise the hurt these actions caused to brothers and sisters, grandparents, partners and extended family members," she said. "We deplore the shameful practices that denied you, the mothers, your fundamental rights and responsibilities to love and care for your children," she added.

Many in the audience were moved with grief and thankfulness for the public apology. Photo from China Post

Gillard committed A$5m to support services for affected families and to help biological families reunite."

It was particularly heartwarming to note the response from those affected - a standing ovation. How healing for a nation.

Members of the audience place flowers in remembrance of families split up by the adoption policies.

Israel and Turkey

While US President Obama visited Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan during a trip last week, a phone call either instigated or orchestrated by the administration was especially admirable.

As the Jerusalem Post describes it, "In a dramatic development that occurred just as US President Barack Obama was leaving the country, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke with Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan for the first time since the Israeli prime minister took power in 2009. Netanyahu voiced regret for the loss of life in the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, apologizing for any mistakes that led to the death of nine Turkish activists. Breaking a three-year deadlock, the two agreed to normalize relations.

The ship Mavi Marmara was a Turkish ship taking part in an attempt to break a blockade set by Israel to prevent arms smuggling to the Gaza strip. The ship was not smuggling weapons itself, but attempting to highlight lack of essential supplies in Gaza. Activists on board the vessel were killed by Israeli commandos, who maintained they were defending themselves upon boarding the vessel.

The conversation was facilitated by US President Barack Obama, taking place during Obama's prolonged meeting with Netanyahu on Friday afternoon. "The United States deeply values our close partnerships with both Turkey and Israel, and we attach great importance to the restoration of positive relations between them in order to advance regional peace and security," Obama said in the statement released by the White House just before he ended a visit to Israel.

"I am hopeful that today's exchange between the two leaders will enable them to engage in deeper cooperation on this and a range of other challenges and opportunities," the president said.

US President Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. If some sort of face saving on the part of the two countries was all that was needed by President Obama to get these two leaders to talk on the phone, congratulations is in order. The two countries have a huge conflict on their borders and much to lose if the Syrian civil war spirals further, taking Lebanon with it.

From Ynet News, "Turkey, for its part, agreed to drop all charges against a group of former Israeli military commanders including former chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi [who was in charge of the IDF during the 2009 blockade - Teatree]. "Erdogan told Binyamin Netanyahu that he valued centuries-long strong friendship and cooperation between the Turkish and Jewish nations," the statement from Erdogan's office said. ...

Netanyahu [for his part] said he saw the interview that Erdogan gave the Danish newspaper recently, in which Erdogan stepped back from his statement equating Zionism with racism, and Netanyahu expressed his appreciation for the clarification."

So this apology could be optimistically viewed as an opportunity to reset these two countries longstanding relations, and a welcome relief to see a Muslim and a Jewish nation finding ways to get along. The chance to rekindle a working relationship is especially important in light of the unraveling of Syria between them (both Turkey and Israel having borders with Syria).

Securing chemical weapons, containing Hezbollah in Lebanon, shaping the Syrian opposition away from rising Islamic extremism are common goals for both Turkey and Israel.

The value of public apologies ...

Egypt swirls, Syria sinks - and a corruption index?

Unfortunately, if one is attempting to note "the news," the chaotic Middle East is hard to ignore. Once again, Egypt and Syria dominate the more dramatic detail developments - though the general trend of what and why is drearily well-known.

Syria, left to its own devices, continues to disintegrate. Fighting has now spread to the capital Damascus. The capital city's airport has been closed periodically, the country's internet service has likewise been shut down and restarted, etc. Reports are that Western countries - in lieu of anything more direct - are pushing the "opposition" to take stronger form and become more "legitimate" in order for the West to be ready to deal with a new Syrian government should the current one collapse.

Significant fighting in Sunni neighborhoods of Damascus itself is becoming commonplace ...

In parts of Northeast Syria no longer controlled by Assad, Syrian Kurdish women integrate into defensive units.

The Kurds - some 25-30 million strong - are one wild card in the region, bringing in larger governance concerns in Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq where some degree of autonomy for the ethnic group has been formally recognized.

At the same time, warnings from the West continue to stream along. The latest concern voiced is again over Syria's (ie. President Bashar al Assad's regime) stockpile of chemical weapons. There are unsubstantiated reports that canisters of these chemicals have been loaded into bombs, though the bombs have not been weaponized (activated) or attached to fighter jets or helicopters, etc.

Sporadic clashes continue as spillover into Lebanon, Turkey has been promised defensive missile batteries by NATO, and there is relative silence from Iran and Hezbollah - Assad's unabashed supporters.

Egypt , already attempting to broker negotiations between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel, has its own crisis. Egyptian President Morsi, by declaring dictatorial power for himself - though he insists it is temporary and only to allow the revolution to continue - has roused anger on the Egyptian street.

Over 100,000 protestors at Tahrir Square on December 4, miles from the palace itself where tens of thousands are also camped out. Nearly three months ago, Egyptians were breaching the US Embassy on 9/11, now it is their own government which is the target

Rocks fly, protestors converge, and at one point in the past few days the presidential palace was facing such large numbers of protestors that the President might have been evacuated by his security forces to prevent any awkward encounters. Egyptian judges have organized one-day boycotts of their own legal work as a protest against the Morsi decrees, and in some cases have postponed their work indefinitely.

Egyptian tanks now deployed in defense of the Presidential palace

Arab Spring at least in these two countries has not gone as envisioned by the West.

Corruption Index

As Ynet news summarizes, "The Global Corruption Report, produced by the Transparency International (TI) organization, ranks the world's countries according to perceived levels of public corruption. The ranking is based on interviews with businesspeople and politicians inside and outside the reviewed country, and surveys conducted by research institutes, economic institutions and universities worldwide.

A country or territory’s score indicates the perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0-100, where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means it is perceived as very clean."

The 2012 report was issued December 5, and Denmark, Finland and New Zealand tie for first place with scores of 90. These high scores are derived by confidence among the nations' respective business and political leaders, "helped by strong access to information systems and rules governing the behavior of those in public positions."

Sweden ranks fourth with a score of 88, followed by Singapore (87), Switzerland (86), Australia and Norway (85), and Canada and the Netherlands (84). In the Middle East, Israel has a score of 60, Jordan a score of 48, Egypt with its score of 32 falls to 118th place in the 170 nations ranked, while Lebanon is in 128th place (30), and Syria in 144th place (26).

Afghanistan, North Korea and Somalia once again are found at the bottom of the index with tied scores of 8.

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The full index and discussion can be found at http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview The US ranks 19th with a score of 79, Japan has a score of 73, China has a score of 39, Russia ranks 133rd with a score of 28. Pakistan has a score of 27.

The point one might make is this - do corruption and instability correlate, or as one astute Pacific Northwest observer notes on another matter, "Coincidence?? I don't think so"

Libya election moves country forward, Syria begins disintegration

Across the restive Arab world, two countries are heading in different directions.

Libya, after its savage dethroning of the dictator Gadaffi (with some estimates of approximately 100,000 lives lost), has held an important election that has resulted in "liberal" secular political forces taking the lead. Perhaps tentative still, these initial results compare favorably to Egypt's continuing turmoil with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood along with other Islamist leanings. We shall see ...

Libya, set along the Mediterranean Sea, is an important oil producing country, and has emerged from 50 years of dictatorship under Colonel Gadaffi.

In the first nationwide free election in more than 50 years approximately 80% of those eligible turned out to vote for candidates filling 80 seats out of the 200 in the National Assembly (or parliament). The election commission said former interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance won 39 seats, or nearly half of those allocated for parties. The Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Construction party came in second with 17 seats. Smaller factions won the other 24 seats set aside for parties. Jibril's party showed particular strength in Libya's two largest cities - Tripoli and Benghazi - and won everywhere across the country.

A positive aspect of the election was the strong support for the liberal alliance across the country, and in particular, the two largest cities Tripoli and Benghazi. Libya's population of just 6.4 million is predominately centered in the north and along the coast, while the desert regions to the south are sparsely settled.

The balance of power lies with the 120 seats set aside for independent candidates, some of whom are likely affiliated unofficially with parties. (Teatree is unsure whether these seats will be filled via a separate election or some other process.) The 200-seat National Assembly is tasked with forming a new government to replace the NTC's Cabinet.

Men preparing to vote

Women in line to vote

Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance is in an initial commanding position for determining the country's future.

Syria, in stark contrast, has by all accounts, drifted into a deepening civil war. These past few days have witnessed sustained clashes in the capitol city, Damascus, the defection of more high ranking officials (a general and an ambassador), and just this morning the assassination of the country's Defense Minister and other inner-circle leaders.

Syrian fighting has now reached the capitol, Damascus, in sustained clashes. The country, with a population of nearly 21 million, is comprised of several tribal and ethnic groupings, with President Assad himself from a minority Alewite tribe.

As CNN reported, "A deadly attack on top Syrian officials Wednesday delivered the harshest blow yet to President Bashar al-Assad's regime, bringing the bloodshed into his inner circle, and even his family.

Four top officials were killed in an explosion at a national security building in Damascus, and some other people were wounded, state TV reported. Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha; Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat -- al-Assad's brother-in-law; Hasan Turkmani, al-Assad's security adviser and assistant vice president, and Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim al-Shaar were killed, the state TV reports said.

The attack, during a meeting of ministers and security officials, was coordinated by several rebel brigades in Damascus, said the deputy head of the opposition Free Syrian Army, Col. Malek al-Kurdi. The government described it as a suicide bombing. But al-Kurdi said a remote control was used to detonate an explosive device planted inside the meeting room."

Syria's Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha, among the top four reported killed.

Smoke hangs over Damascus neighborhoods

Reports state that Bashir al-Assad has pulled units from Syria's border with Israel, back into Damascus to protect the ruling family's power center.

Studied avoidance of public intervention by Western powers, public support from Russia and China, and active quiet support - the proxy war - from Hezbollah and Iran for Assad's regime, has resulted in today's dire picture. The US and others have raised specific concerns over his stockpiles of chemical weapons (don't use them, and keep them secure), and the more general concern over Al-Qaeda's taking advantage of the complex conflict.

Syria reportedly manufactures Sarin, Tabun, VX, and mustard gas types of chemical weapons to the amounts of several hundred tons per year. Syria is one of only 7 nations which is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Like Libya, Syria's population is not equally spread across the country, but concentrated in the west, with heavier populations in the fertile northwest along Turkey's border, and in the Southwest, in Damascus.