Central African Republic and South Sudan torn

Tribal and religious divides have torn up fragile lives in two African countries the past weeks.

The CAR, a former french colony, with a population of nearly 5 million. Graphic from New York Times

The Central African Republic - one of the most poverty stricken countries of the world - is in trouble from an increasingly religion-tainted conflict between Islamists and non ... From a Deutsch Welle article, "Some 10 to 15 percent of the Central African Republic's population are Muslims. Most of them live in the far north, on the other side of swampland that is impassable for six months of the year. The region is regarded as an underdeveloped enclave in an already poor nation: No schools, no hospitals, no roads." The article goes on to explain that much of this region looks north to Sudan and Chad, "They seek medical treatment in a hospital in Nyala, Sudan. They send their children to Quran schools in Khartoum."

The [latest round of] conflict began in March this year, when previous president, Francois Bozize, was ousted in a coup when the Seleka alliance took over. The Seleka opposition was led by Michel Djotodia, who declared himself the new President. However, in the months that have followed, a stricter brand of Islam began to emerge at least as the excuse of what were increasingly lawless actions by Seleka soldiers and allies. In November, when Christian groups were being brutally attacked, Christian militias formed and fought back. France intervened, sending in a peacekeeping force trying to separate the two sides. There it stands, as the German article says, "Once again, a country the size of Texas rich in natural resources faces a dismaying choice. Should the brutal Muslim rebels be ousted, the likely winner will be the country's unpopular kleptocratic former Christian president. Regardless of religion, it is the population that is suffering in this civil war."

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In these brutal, ethnic and religious conflicts, the middle ground erodes, people are forced to take sides, and are at risk either way for their choice. Photo from Al-jazeera.com

South Sudan, the world's newest independent state, suddenly sees tribal hostilities boiling over.

South Sudan, often portrayed in terms of its break from The Republic of Sudan to the north, and adjacent to the heartbreak in Darfur. Graphic from www.medicalteams.org

South Sudan erupted in hostilities between the two largest ethnic groups in the country, the Dinka and the Nuer. While there are some subtle religious overtones to this conflict, the identity of both groups is much more aligned to their tribal heritage, which has much in common.

Last week, soldiers from the Nuer tribe revolted in their barracks and over the past several days, declared they had seized control of Bor, Jonglei State's capital city, located in central South Sudan. The Nuer revolt is headed (kind of) by Riek Machar, the South Sudanese Vice President who was sacked in July this year by President Salva Kiir. But as with all these conflicts, clarity is precious. As a BBC article describes it, "While acknowledging that forces loyal to Riek Machar had taken control of Bor, the army also said Maj-Gen Peter Gadet Yak had mutinied, taking with him some troops. What is not clear is if troops loyal to Mr Machar are working together with those of Maj-Gen Gadet, or if in fact they are the same soldiers. But it is likely, because of the history of relations between the two, and because of their background. They are both Nuers, while President Salva Kiir is Dinka.

If the two are indeed in control of Jonglei, it is possible that they might try to overrun the neighbouring oil-producing states of Unity and Upper Nile. This will mean the oil-reliant economy could come under their control."

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The conflict threatens the cohesiveness of South Sudan, along with oil fields the backbone of this newest country. Graphic from Voice of America

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An anxious father holds his daughter .. photo from the NY Times

Two conflicts - both could legitimately be called civil wars, joining similar conflict in Libya and Syria as 2013 winds down.

Teatree has emphasized this Christmas song in the past years - "I heard the Bells on Christmas Day" written by the American poet, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, as our country's civil war raged in 1863. His wife had died two years earlier and one of their sons was gravely wounded in one of the Civil War battles ...

I heard the bells on Christmas day
Their old familiar carols play,
And wild and sweet the words repeat
Of peace on earth, good will to men.

I thought how, as the day had come,
The belfries of all Christendom
Had rolled along th'unbroken song
Of peace on earth, good will to men.

And in despair I bowed my head:
'There is no peace on earth, ' I said
'For hate is strong, and mocks the song
Of peace on earth, good will to men.'

verse - see link below,
verse - see link below,

Then pealed the bells more loud and deep:
'God is not dead, nor doth He sleep;
The wrong shall fail, the right prevail,
With peace on earth, good will to men.'

This year, if one can get to this youtube presentation, there are other darker and less sanitized verses to the poem which seem apropos this conflict ridden season ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8br_t4rp5NU

May our prayers and actions be to this end.

Abeyi residents on their own plan to choose between Sudan and South Sudan

28 months after South Sudan became an independent nation from Sudan, a disputed region between the two countries is about to decide on its own future. The Abeyi region is a rather important one for both nations as it is oil rich with implications for future wealth, which is why its status was left to be decided later. That time is tomorrow, Sunday, October 27, 2013.

Abeyi (state, province, prefecture, parish?)is an oil-rich region between Sudan and South Sudan, populated in the main by Ngok Dinka, though pastoralist Misseriya periodically graze their cattle here as well. Map from the BBC

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This map from Africa Confidential, shows the complexity of this small region, with the Sudan government having proposed a smaller boundary, the UN commission establishing a larger boundary, the Misseriya recognized to the north, the Ngok Dinka to the South, a recent series of military conflicts between the two nations in the Heglig oil fields, etc.

However, there is a problem

The referendum is not supported by either Sudan or South Sudan. Sudan, the Islamic Republic to the north wants a negotiated settlement between the two federal entities, while South Sudan says that the Abeyi peoples can't just hold a referendum on their own, rather that any such vote be supported by international monitoring and protocol (to avoid later charges of corruption and fraud). That seems like a rather nice long-term view on the part of South Sudan, even though reports indicate that the Ngok Dinka are likely to vote to join with South Sudan.

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Photo from Al Jazeera showing Dinka cattle herder

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Arab misseriya view the Abeyi region as one which they have some rights to as the region has always been one which they have grazed their cattle in, and consider the region as a "portal" between the Arab north and African south. Photo from radiotamazuj.org. Teatree happily admits he has no idea of who actually is a Misseriya or a Dinka in the two specific pictures shown here. Just an educated guess that lighter skin and turbans indicate Arab connections, while darker skin reflects Dinka genes and that cowboy hat is an affectation showing an affinity to South Sudan's cowboy-hat-wearing President Salva Kiir.

Nonetheless, something will happen tomorrow, a strong Dinka vote for union with South Sudan will be on the record regardless of its international acceptance, and we'll see whether the two national governments will heed the vote and move at all on the current boundary status ...

Meanwhile, both Sudan and South Sudan are continuing their efforts to inoculate their citizens against polio which has emerged in scattered pockets along the neighbors' loosely governed border regions. Let's hope that these vaccination programs continue regardless of the outcome of the Abeyi referendum ...

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South Sudan health workers walking into village to provide oral doses of polio vaccine. Photo from www.gurtong.net

Uganda's role in regional peacekeeping forces to end

Friday, November 2, the Uganda government announced it was going to withdraw its military forces from various regional UN-authorized peacekeeping efforts across Africa. The announcement is not a good omen for the efforts involved, most noticeably the sizable force considered the backbone of UN efforts to establish a legitimate government in Somalia.

The reason

The BBC notes that the UN infuriated the government of Uganda when it published an experts' report last month accusing Uganda of arming Congolese rebels. The report said Rwanda and Uganda were both supplying weapons to the M23 rebels in the DR Congo. This long running conflict has forced some 500,000 from their homes since April, 2012.

This M23 group - led by Bosco "Terminator" Ntaganda - who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on war crimes charges - is merely the latest ascendance of constantly shifting and coalescing rebel groups in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The region has never been brought under control of any government since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.

Bosco Ntaganda, operations leader of the latest ascendant rebel group, the M23, in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Rwanda's current leader, Paul Kagame(a Tutu) and Uganda, under the leadership of Yoweri Museveni, opposed the Hutu-led government and militias that slaughtered nearly a million Tutsis and moderate Hutus during that three month period in 1994, and during the past two decades Rwanda has continued to back armed groups in the east of DR Congo as a way to fight Hutu rebels who fled there after the genocide.

The troubled eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with Rwanda and Uganda neighboring.

M23 rebels moving to a position

The BBC article continues by quoting, Mr Mukasa, Uganda's Security Minister, told a news conference: "If our efforts are going to be misinterpreted and we are going to be maligned, we want to be in a good relationship with our neighbours. "Let's stop all these initiatives. We will concentrate on ourselves. Whoever wants to cause us trouble, they will find us at our home."

Uganda Security Minister, Wilson Mukasa

Places where Uganda troops are stationed.

The BBC notes that operations in Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo will be affected. Uganda provides the largest contingent to the UN-backed African Union mission in Somalia (Amisom) (7500 of the force's 16500 total). The Amisom force has helped the Somali government gain ground against Islamist militias. Analysts say a rapid withdrawal of Ugandan troops could threaten those gains.

Over 7500 Ugandan troops serving under the UN flag in Somalia

Ugandan troops are deployed in smaller numbers to an international mission to CAR and DR Congo to hunt down the remaining elements of the Lord's Resistance Army and its leader, Joseph Kony.

Ugandan troops deployed to search for the LRA leader, Joseph Kony, in both Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo

African conflicts across the midsection of the continent

The Horn of Africa - Somalia is the center of this large region of conflict - Islamists (Al Shabaab) and famine, piracy - with Ethiopian, Kenyan, Burundian, and Ugandan soldiers comprising the UN peacekeeping force establishing security in what is known as the prime example of a failed state.

Sudan/South Sudan - the continuing battle of Islamist Sudan vs the black African South Sudan - the current point of conflict is over oil resources along the two country's border.

Mali/Nigeria - both battling Islamists with Al Qaeda sympathies, along with corruption in their own government.

Rwanda/Democratic Republic of Congo - the longest, deadliest, and most under-reported conflict on the continent.

Troubles, troubles, everywhere.

South Sudan, Congo and Mali

Three African countries are in the news this week - none of the reasons are particularly inspiring.

South Sudan - now one year old (July 9, 2011 independence day) is embroiled in a tense, violent confrontation with its parent nation, the Republic of Sudan. After repeated clashes along an undefined and oil-rich border, and arguments and accusations regarding payments for oil shipped north through the Republic of Sudan, South Sudan suspended oil shipments altogether in the past few months. Now South Sudan is struggling without 95% of its revenues from producing oil, and the Republic of Sudan is without 75% of its revenues based on shipping South Sudanese oil. For a while, there were concerns that a full scale war was about to erupt between the two, but that possibility has receded for the time being.

South Sudan, with a lot of oil, and Republic of Sudan owning the only pipeline out to the world market. The two countries haven't solved their issues yet.

In the past week, however, international relief agencies have noted an increasingly dire situation with much of South Sudan's population. Without the government's ability to purchase food internationally (grain), pockets of food shortages are erupting. In the northern Republic of Sudan, significant protests among Khartoum residents have also occurred due to lack of government services.

Both leaders walking together. Republic of Sudan's Bashir wanted for genocide by the International Criminal Court situated in The Hague, Netherlands; South Sudan's Salva Kiir in a cowboy hat.

So, not much of a year to point back to, the question is not only whether South Sudan's 8.2 million population has kept its firm resolve to move forward together, but if they can.

South Sudanese girls overlooking Juba, South Sudan's largest city, and temporary capitol.

Republic of the Congo

Not to be confused with its much larger and [in]famous neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo, this French-speaking West African country has a population of 4 million and its capitol city is Brazzaville.

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Republic of the Congo and its larger neighbor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Interestingly, (from Wikipedia) "the Republic of the Congo's sparse population is concentrated in the southwestern portion of the country, leaving the vast areas of tropical jungle in the north virtually uninhabited. Thus, Congo is one of the most urbanized countries in Africa, with 70% of its total population living in a few urban areas, namely in Brazzaville, Pointe-Noire, or one of the small cities or villages lining the 534-kilometre (332 mi) railway which connects the two [main] cities."

The railroad along which 70% of Congo's population lives ...

The impoverished country (wealthy in mineral resources and timber - unable to exploit them for the good of the whole ...)made the news this week when a former warlord, Thomas Lubanga was sentenced to 14 years in prison for using child soldiers during 2002-2003 when the country was engulfed in a civil war - a local conflict within the wider DR Congo war, which left an estimated five million people dead - mostly from hunger and disease.

Thomas Lubanga in the International Criminal Court sentencing proceedings this past week.

In March, Lubanga became the first person to be convicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) since it was set up 10 years ago. Lubanga led the Union of Congolese Patriots, an ethnic militia active in the war that is estimated to have killed 60,000 people. Conflicts continue in the two Congolese countries, ripples still occurring nearly two decades later after the Rwandan genocide unleashed violence throughout Central Africa.

Mali

Mali - now divided between rebels and a tenuous government in the south. The rebels themselves (ethnic Tuaregs and those with a predominately Islamist perspective) have joined forces to create an Islamist state.

The new Islamic state - Azawad - apparently considers ancient Muslim shrines as anathema, and its new leaders have duplicated action taken by the Taliban in Afghanistan when that movement took control of the country in the late 1990s. In the case of the Taliban, its forces destroyed a massive world-heritage Buddha image carved into a mountainside. In the case of the "Islamists of Ansar Dine," they too are destroying world-heritage status religious shrines.

This Buddha image was heavily damaged with direct shelling by the Taliban 13-14 years ago.

Ancient Muslim shrines in Timbuktu are the latest relics deemed offensive to the the Northern Mali's new leaders, supported by Al Qaeda, who have apparently gained the upper hand over the Tuaregs, according to the New York Times.

Strange and sad stories from Africa.

The two Sudans

I think we're on top of the recurring news and trouble spots: Syria, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Israel and the Palestinians, Hamas and Hezbollah, along with the diminished hopes for an Arab "Spring" in Libya, Egypt, and Yemen. Then there's the rather unexpected grasping for others assets by Argentina in the Southern Hemisphere; the endless (it seems) fiscal woes in Europe - Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Iceland. Let's top it off with China's continuing announcements about its ownership of all the South China Sea...

The two Sudans - sliding back into conflict ...

But it is in Africa where we need to return. For the tensions between South Sudan and The Republic of Sudan have ramped up closer and closer to a full scale war. South Sudan, having become independent after a split with the Republic of Sudan just nine months ago, has not been able to successfully negotiate numerous issues with its northern counterpart - borders and oil transportation revenues are the primary issues of disagreement. Complicating these major issues, a number of splinter groups in the area seeking autonomy and/or revenge from either of the two recognized nations, have added their own violence to the mix.

The BBC provides the following timeline (simplified further by Teatree)

1899-1955 - Sudan is under joint British-Egyptian rule.

1956 - Sudan becomes independent.

1958 - General Abboud leads military coup against the civilian government elected earlier in the year

1962 - Civil war begins in the south, led by the Anya Nya movement.

1964 - The "October Revolution" overthrows Abboud and an Islamist-led government is established

1972 - Under the Addis Ababa peace agreement between the government and the Anya Nya, the south becomes a self-governing region.

1978 - Oil discovered in Bentiu in southern Sudan.

1983 - Civil war breaks out again in the south involving government forces and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), led by John Garang (an Iowa State graduate). President Numeiri declares the introduction of Sharia Islamic law.

1985 - After widespread popular unrest, Numayri is deposed by a group of officers and a Transitional Military Council is set up to rule the country.

1993 - Revolution Command Council dissolved after Omar Bashir is appointed president.

1999 - President Bashir dissolves the National Assembly and declares a state of emergency. Sudan begins to export oil.

2002 - Government and SPLA sign landmark ceasefire agreement providing for six-month renewable ceasefire in central Nuba Mountains - a key rebel stronghold.

2003 February - Rebels in western region of Darfur rise up against government, claiming the region is being neglected by Khartoum.

The darfur region of Sudan soon to become characterized with the term genocide

2004 January - Army moves to quell rebel uprising in western region of Darfur; hundreds of thousands of refugees flee to neighbouring Chad. March - UN official says pro-government Arab Janjaweed militias are carrying out systematic killings of non-Arab villagers in Darfur.

2004 September - UN says Sudan has not met targets for disarming pro-government Darfur militias and must accept outside help to protect civilians. US Secretary of State Colin Powell describes Darfur killings as genocide.

The toll in the Darfur region depicted here by a single woman walking past a burnt out village

2005 January - Government and southern rebels sign a peace deal. The agreement includes a permanent ceasefire and accords on wealth and power sharing.

2005 9 July - Former southern rebel leader John Garang is sworn in as first vice president. A constitution which gives a large degree of autonomy to the south is signed. 1 August - Vice president Garang is killed in a plane crash. He is succeeded by Salva Kiir.

2007 October - SPLM temporarily suspends participation in national unity government, accusing Khartoum of failing to honour the 2005 peace deal.

2008 July - The International Criminal Court's top prosecutor calls for the arrest of President Bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur; the appeal is the first ever request to the ICC for the arrest of a sitting head of state. Sudan rejects the indictment.

2009 March - The International Criminal Court in The Hague issues an arrest warrant for President Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.

2009 July - North and south Sudan say they accept ruling by arbitration court in The Hague shrinking disputed Abyei region and placing the major Heglig oil field in the north.

2009 December - Leaders of North and South reach deal on terms of referendum on independence due in South by 2011.

2010 July - International Criminal Court issues second arrest warrant for President al-Bashir - this time on charges of genocide.

Republic of Sudan's President Bashir

2011 July - South Sudan gains independence after referendum earlier in January overwhelmingly backs separate nation.

2011 October - South Sudan and Sudan agree to set up committees tasked with resolving their outstanding disputes.

2011 November - Sudan accused of bombing refugee camp in Yida, Unity State, South Sudan.

2012 January - South Sudan halts oil production after talks on fees for the export of oil via Sudan break down.

2012 February - Sudan and South Sudan sign non-aggression pact at talks on outstanding secession issues, although tensions remain high over oil export fees. South Sudan-Kenya-Ethiopia announce plans to build alternate pipeline route east to Lamu, Kenya.

2012 April - After weeks of border fighting, South Sudan troops temporarily occupy the oil field and border town of Heglig. Sudanese warplanes raid the Bentiu area in South Sudan.

Beyond the timeline, three points might be noted:

This is about oil, not totally, but revenues from oil is key to both nations, and means the tensions will not easily be reduced. Because it is about oil, other powerful nations are going to be interested if not involved: China, the US, and the EU. Indeed, South Sudan's Salva Kiir had to cut short a state visit to China during the past week. China, with its long involvement in Sudan primarily to develop oil production and purchase it, has a delicate line to walk now with both Sudans.

South Sudan President Kiir and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspect Chinese honor guard (a strange custom/ritual that every leader seems to do, walk past a shiny military contingent of the host country).

A toast between the two leaders

This is also about sub-Saharan Africa and Arab northern Africa with Islamist extremism tossed in. Uganda has already declared that it will support South Sudan if the Republic of Sudan army moves south. Kenya is unlikely to stand by. The Republic of Sudan's targeted attacks on populations of non-Arab people groups during the civil war and in Darfur, as noted in the timeline, did not sit well with these two neighbors.

As so many conflicts play out in Africa, they are often low-tech, vicious, and poorly reported on. Here, South Sudanese soldiers patrolling a road

South Sudan has a friend in Israel. Israel has offered strong and steady support for Southern Sudan, both before and after independence, rooted in offsetting the power and cohesion of many Arab states arrayed against it. When the Republic of South Sudan officially declared its independence from Sudan and established itself as the world's newest country, the following day, the State of Israel officially recognized South Sudan and three days later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with South Sudan President Salva Kiir and said that Israel would happy to help the fledgling country in “any way.”

Salva Kiir accepting a menorah from Israeli President Shimon Peres in December 2011 - a token of friendship between the two countries.

Less than two weeks after their declaration of independence, South Sudan and Israel established and formalized their diplomatic relations. A number of revelers in Juba celebrating independence in July 2011 waved Israeli flags, a gesture interpreted by some as a sign of gratitude to Israel for support during years of struggle against the north.

In August 2011, President Kiir announced that he would maintain South Sudan's relations with Israel despite pressure from Arab countries and that he wishes for South Sudan's embassy to be built in Jerusalem, the capital of Israel, and not in Tel Aviv as has become custom for many Western nations due to the perceived disputes over Jerusalem's sovereignty. In the past few weeks, the Republic of Sudan accuses Israel of flying into Juba nightly, full of tangible support of various kinds.

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The detail of the two Sudan's conflict - rooted in oil wealth and ethnicity

Question for the day ... Why does the UN (as do many nations I must admit)tend to equalize conflicts by asking "both sides" to refrain from attacks, as if both sides are equally at fault or aggressors when one side or the other is clearly the initiator?

Pipelines and Roads in East Africa

Leaving behind the many scenes of conflict, and the important but seemingly endless stream of elections among the 190 some countries of the world, let's look at an infrastructure project.

In East Africa, we read that South Sudan, Ethopia and Kenya have agreed on a pipeline venture which would transport oil from South Sudan's current oil fields and Ethiopia's potential finds across Kenya's arid lands to a port - to be built - in Lamu. If that sounds complicated and full of risks, it is.

The big picture, South Sudan wants an alternative route to export its oil. Landlocked Ethiopia is exploring for oil in its southern regions and also wants a route out for any successful oil fields.

On the other hand, a new oil route would give South Sudan leverage in dealing with The Republic of Sudan, which holds the current set of pipelines through which South Sudan exports oil for badly needed funds. Such a partnership could foster closer ties between Kenya and its neighbors, and in general terms, any regional cooperative infrastructure project between nations could be considered a stitch for improving the well being of its citizens and honest governance.

But of course, this is oil.

In so many developing countries, exporting oil has not improved the lot of the ordinary wananchi but has certainly enriched elites, and furthered corruption. Then there are the environmental risks. Lamu, the intended port, has until now existed as a quiet fishing village with a bit of a tourist market. Anything becoming a boom town tends to lose some of its quieter qualities, along with oil as a commodity that can leak, spill, and otherwise degrade a local environment. On the other hand, quiet poverty has its own issues.

Lamu's fishing economy is about to change ...

That all depends on the integrity and carefulness of project design and implementation - from the pipeline specs to transparent and wise handling of new wealth. Rather than deliver judgements on the outcome based on troubles elsewhere, let's hope that the East African leaders have gathered lessons from those experiences and avoid the same results. (Think Norway for a small country that has handled its oil wealth in a responsible manner)

Here's a few details from various news accounts:

Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and South Sudan's President Salva Kiir witnessed Friday, March 2, the launch of Lamu project which will give landlocked Ethiopia and South Sudan maritime access to export products and import others. The $24.5 billion project in Kenya's port on the Ocean Indian includes a pipeline, oil refinery and road network as well as railways line to Juba.

Ethiopia is eager to partner with this project regardless of the probability of new oil finds. While we've focused on the oil component which is a driver for South Sudan, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi expressed interest in a new modern road and rail connection to the Indian Ocean port that could bolster imports and exports of trade goods. The project certainly looks good ... in color and on paper.

Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki (R) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi arrive for the signing of bilateral agreements between the two countries at the State House in Nairobi, March 1, 2012.

For South Sudan, the project presents an opportunity to end dependency on oil pipelines and infrastructure of neighboring Sudan. South Sudan's government suspended oil production after accusing Khartoum of stealing the oil as talks on the transit fees failed to reach an agreement.

South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayadrit and his trademark black cowboy hat

Speaking at the launch ceremony, Mayadrit said "for South Sudan, it is a vision to long-term security. The backbone of our infrastructure that will allow us to end our reliance on oil extraction. It is a vision whereby in the future you will be able to board people and freight cargo in the morning in Juba and be in Lamu that same afternoon," he added enthusiastically.

What some pipelines look like elsewhere on the continent

One spokesperson said the cost of the construction would be shared among Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia, however, Kenyan president, Kibaki, in his speech thanked international and regional financial establishments like the World Bank, African Development Bank for their participation in the funding of the project. He further said that China is very supportive for the project. ...

P.S.

Let's keep in mind the late 2011 incursion by Kenyan forces into Somalia. With a famine in progress, Al-Shabaab presiding over an anarchic situation, and one of the world's largest refugee camps growing on Kenyan soil, there were legitimate arguments for Kenya saying "enough." But we might consider that a proposed pipeline project and its security needs may also have played into the decision.

Military adventures do not come cheap or easy; here Kenyan forces move, slowly, into Southern Somalia

The US moves on the LRA (in support of South Sudan?)

For a Nobel Peace Prize winner, US President Obama has been unusually active militarily. The latest rather surprising move has been the announcement that 100 armed military advisors are headed to Uganda (and in or out of neighboring countries) to assist African forces in tracking down the long-time leader of a savage group known as the Lord's Resistance Army.

Before a brief discussion of what we can gather regarding this action, it is worth noting the Obama administration's military actions the past two and 1/2 years. After campaigning on the fundamental wrongness of the Iraq war, the White House is following through, drawing down US troops in Iraq to a possible 3000-4000 size by the end of this year. Mainly trainers for the Iraqi army, this reduction is much more than military commanders had recommended. They had requested a force totaling 10 to 15,000 thousand as a deterrent against more aggressive Iranian infiltration. And now, given Iran's recent plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador on US soil, there will be even more concerns over pulling all combat capability out of Iraq.

On the other hand, the Obama administration has significantly built up troop levels in Afghanistan - now at 100,000 compared to 33 thousand when he took office. Yet, at the same time as announcing his buildup, the President immediately detailed a timetable to reducing his "mini surge" beginning in 2012. The surge and timetable for pulling troops out was all in contrast to his field commanders asking for up to 130,000 troops with withdrawals based on "conditions on the ground."

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Perhaps most controversial - at least in terms of campaign promises and policy consistency - is the increase in armed drone attacks in Pakistan against Al-qaeda, with the recent expansion of strikes into Yemen.

Armed predator drone aircraft in Afghanistan used primarily in Pakistan

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Armed drone strikes have increased significantly since the Obama administration took office

The White House also chose to spearhead armed support to overthrow Gadaffi in Libya, "leading from behind" after first using the US unique capabilities of tomahawk cruise missiles. The Obama administration placed great emphasis on obtaining explicit UN support, a tacit Arab league go-ahead nod, and multilateral coalition building to distance itself from the Bush administration, which was characterized as taking unilateral actions ...

With this somewhat bewildering series of actions outlined (bewildering at least as to consistency, rationale, and actual contrast from the Bush administration), we might now turn briefly to the Lord's Resistance Army based in Uganda.

For context, locate Uganda, then South Sudan to the north (the map does not yet show the division of that country into two), Kenya to the east, and in turn Somalia to the east of Kenya

From the Wikipedia, "The LRA was formed in 1987 and until about 2007 it was engaged in an armed rebellion against the Ugandan government. It is led by Joseph Kony, who proclaims himself the "spokesperson" of God and a spirit medium, primarily of the Holy Spirit, which the group believe can represent itself in many manifestations.

The leader of the LRA, Joseph Kony, is wanted for trial by the International Criminal Court, just as is the Republic of Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir

The group is based on a number of different beliefs including local religious rituals, mysticism, traditional religion, Acholi nationalism and Christianity and claims to be establishing a theocratic state based on the Ten Commandments and local Acholi tradition.

The LRA is accused of widespread human rights violations, including murder, abduction, mutilation, sexual enslavement of women and children and forcing children to participate in hostilities. The group used to operate mainly in northern Uganda and also in parts of South Sudan, Central African Republic and DR Congo. The LRA is currently listed as a terrorist organization by the United States."

The LRA operations have touched several of Uganda's neighbors

Wikipedia goes on to note that the size of of the LRA at its peak several years ago was as high as 3,000 soldiers, along with about 1,500 women and children. Today, the Uganda military believes the core has been sizeably weakened and reduced to under 1000 fighters. However, one of the horrors of this group is that the bulk of the LRA "soldiers" are children. The LRA may have forced well over 10,000 boys and girls into combat over the past two decades, often killing family, neighbors and school teachers in the process. Many of these children were put on the front lines so the casualty rate for these children has been high. They have often used children to fight because they are easy to replace by raiding schools or villages.

Child soldiers - the ultimate degradation of children ...

There are several first hand reports from missionary acquaintances and other observers that children are often provided collective security centers at which they can sleep and avoid abduction.

Wikipedia noted briefly, almost in passing, that Republic of Sudan has provided military assistance to the LRA, in response to Uganda lending military support to the Sudan People's Liberation Army (now South Sudan).

And yet one might wonder whether in fact this is the key point behind the US move. One US ally, Kenya, has its hands full with the overflow of refugees from the Somali conflict, famine in the region, and most recently a kidnapping of two Spanish aid workers from a large refugee camp in the extreme eastern part of the country. South Sudan is struggling to cope with violence on its new northern border with the Republic of Sudan. Uganda provides troops attempting to police the anarchy in Somalia. So perhaps the US believes it needs to additionally support three allies with this small token of military advisors. (And those vaguely described "armed military advisors" may well be US special forces - a whole different level of unit capability)

So while questions abound, and though the Obama administration's reasons to intervene or not and where having no apparent consistency, this possible larger context in East Africa unrest may give us the best framework to see a strategy at work.