Venezuela stumbles as poor leadership and cheap oil take their toll

Venezuela may soon become the world's first nation in 2015 to see its government and economy implode. The South American country, led by Hugo Chavez for 15 years from 1998 to 2013 (with all the controversy the man brought on the world stage) is heavily dependent on its oil industry and the revenues it brings. Those revenues also allowed Chavez to champion socialism in his nation, and create economic alliances with other socialist-leaning or communist nations in the Western Hemisphere, though Teatree believes it fair to say, that simple anti-US and anti-capitalist perspectives provided most of the heat for these groupings.

Venezuela - with a population approaching 30 million people, immense oil reserves and therefore potential wealth for the whole nation (if distributed justly as in the case of Norway), high and untrammeled biodiversity across its landscape, and an avowed socialist governance for the past 16 years - should really be something of a powerhouse and inspiration to the world, and yet ... Graphic from davidjlynch.com

Unfortunately, today, Venezuela is teetering as oil revenues have plunged in the past six months, corruption remains rampant, and its leader (handpicked by Chavez and propped up in power by the few benefiting from the power-structure status quo), unable to articulate a pragmatic path forward.

President Maduro, to be fair, is in over his head, and chained to the ideology and memory of Hugo Chavez. As wikipedia notes, "A former bus driver, Maduro rose to become a trade union leader, before being elected to the National Assembly in 2000. He was appointed to a number of positions within the Venezuelan Government under Chávez, ultimately being made Foreign Minister in 2006. He was described during this time as the "most capable administrator and politician of Chávez's inner circle"."

Maduro was Venezuela's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2006 to 2013 and Vice President of Venezuela from 2012 to 2013. With his main asset being supportive of Hugo Chavez who in turn was able to talk big because oil prices were high and revenue flowing in, it was a very narrow base upon which to lead the nation on Maduro's own (about 95 percent of the money Venezuela earns from exports comes from its oil sales, according to an AP article on January 16).

As President, Maduro spent 2013 and the first half of 2014 making bombastic speeches in the form of "Hugo Chavez-isms," and even created a Ministry of Happiness. Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk

In the past six months, however, since oil prices have plunged, Maduro is confronting an increasingly dire range of options. For most of January, Maduro has gone on a world circling trip visiting nations that might lend him substantial funds to cover the lost oil revenues. He has visited Russia to meet with President Putin. In China, he secured a $20 billion infusion of Chinese investments, and in Qatar, he announced a new financial alliance. Maduro also stopped in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, but with not a great deal to show for it.

Returning home, Maduro received the equivalent of a ticker-tape parade organized by his supporters, even though while traveling, his government had to implement a new rationing system to curb out-of-control lines at stores. In addition, young protesters began blockading streets and opposition leaders were loudly calling for immediate change.

Another AP article reports, "Venezuela is seeing lines unheard of even in this shortage-plagued nation, with people lining up overnight to buy necessities like soap, milk and diapers. The state has deployed military guards to maintain order as stocks run low after long winter holidays.


A man leaves a private supermarket with disposable diapers, the long line are those waiting for their turn to shop. Photo from (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Many items have become impossible to find even on the thriving black market. At least one upscale Caracas hotel is no longer providing laundry service unless guests bring their own detergent. ...

Food Security Czar Carlos Osorio drew jeers last week when he said that the existence of long lines proved that Venezuela has plenty of food. Otherwise, he said, there would be nothing to line up for."


For those unable to afford shopping at private supermarkets, there are government supermarkets where prices are capped. This is a line near the Petare shantytown in Caracas, Venezuela. Apparently this line represents "success" for Venezuela's government, as there must be something in the store to buy ...

Beyond the immediate scarcities and unrest, there are those pesky loans already taken out by Venezuela, and payments are coming due. Default on a variety of financial instruments looms. And where it all ends, in this nation with enormous potential wealth, no one knows.

But let's end on a positive note - leaving behind the long lines that give testimony to scarcity and corruption in urban Venezuela, a couple pictures of the country's southern and western regions.


The website www.climatestotravel.com observes, "in the state of Bolìvar, we find the huge Canaima National Park, which is generally more humid and has greener landscapes; here we find incredible waterfalls like Salto Angel, 3,212 feet (979 meters) high, and Salto Kukenan, 2,211 feet (674 meters) high."


In Western Venezuela, the Andes mountains can be found, providing the contrast to the steamy jungles and plateaus in places such as the Canaima National Park. Photo from http://venezuela-pr.com/

An Arctic Ocean sea route opens ...

It is near continual night in the Arctic this time of year, and the ocean is a solid sheet of ice, covered with some snow. In fact, one would not guess of the presence of an ocean if simply looking at the surface.

This may be the brightest hour one sees during much of the winter

But in the summer, when the sun shines much of each 24 hour period (although close to the horizon), the ice loosens and melts, and the waters appear.

Icebreakers can claw their way through, revealing to the casual observer that yes, there is a sea underneath, and several routes that commercial ships can pass.

In fact, the numbers of ships that navigated a sea route across the "top" of the earth last summer was up to 46, a rise from 4 in 2010, and 34 in 2011, according to a recent newspaper article. It is this development that is worth noting.

Click on picture for full image

The commercial possibilities of using a polar sea lane present opportunities for some countries, while posing challenges for the environment. But, according to the article, the increasingly ice-free route runs from Europe to Asian markets through the Bering Strait, which divides Alaska and Russia, and it can be 40 percent shorter than the southern alternative of shipping through the Suez Canal.

Following the red line from left to right, this polar route is so much shorter than the blue line showing the shipping route through the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal sees 18,000 ships a year passing through, so it will be sometime before Arctic traffic becomes a competitor, however, the key players in the rise of traffic are Russia and China. Russia is seeking to develop its Arctic oil and gas reserves, and China is ready to buy energy. While both talk a good game when it comes to environmental safeguards, this is an opportunity that neither will pass up.

Apparently there are several potential polar sea routes, Alaska development officials were hoping that ones closer to the northern boundaries of the state would win out, creating their own growth. But the Northern Sea Route (NSR) seems to be the front runner.

The Northern Sea Route, hugging the Russian/Scandanavian coasts is shown here in red.

Polar wildlife will be more exposed to potential oil accidents, and debris from civilization - but that seems mainly a concern of Western environmentalists.

Tankers may become a more common sight at the North Pole during the summer months.

Teatree is not sure he'd characterize this increase of sea traffic as progress, but it is certainly more likely.

New President in Mexico begins 6 year term

Enrique Pena Nieto, 46, began his as Mexican president on Saturday. He leads the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which has governed Mexico from 1929 continuously (71 years) until it lost power for two terms (12 years)in 2000 to Vicente Fox of the conservative Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), then Nieto's predecessor, Felipe Calderon under the same party banner.

Enrique Pena Nieto, Mexico's new President

Reuter's captures much of the situation in Mexico with this observation, "Telegenic and married to a popular actress, Pena Nieto promises to restore calm after more than 60,000 people were killed in violence between drug gangs and security forces during the six-year term of his conservative predecessor."

Nieto's family. Nieto's first wife died in 2007 leaving him with three children. He remarried in 2010 to an actress Angélica Rivera. The reports are that there are six children in all - presumably some are Rivera's - in a blended family.

The Drug War

The violent drug wars have seen the electorate casting for some leader who would be able to gain effective control of the country - both Fox and Calderon did not, now it is back to the PRI leader to have a go at it.

From Wikipedia, we read, "Mexico is a major transit and drug-producing nation: an estimated 90% of the cocaine smuggled into the United States every year moves through Mexico. Fueled by the increasing demand for drugs in the United States, the country has become a major supplier of heroin, producer and distributor of ecstasy, and the largest foreign supplier of marijuana and methamphetamine to the U.S.'s market. Major drug syndicates control the majority of drug trafficking in the country, and Mexico is a significant money-laundering center.

After the Federal Assault Weapons Ban expired in September, 2004 in the United States, the Mexican President Calderon decided to use brute force to combat some drug lords and in 2007 started a major escalation on the Mexican Drug War. Mexican drug lords found it easy to buy assault weapons in the United States. The result is that drug cartels have now both more gun power, and more manpower due to the high unemployment in Mexico. Drug cultivation has increased too."

Mexico's security forces battle well-armed drug cartels, along with maintaining integrity within their own organizations which are constantly being infiltrated by cartels with ready cash and bribes.

Being neighbor to a lone world superpower is not easy - US domestic and international foreign policies weigh in heavily on how Mexico fares economically and politically. Along with the drug-fueled blood letting, illegal immigration will be an issue that re-elected US President Obama, and newly elected Nieto will tackle.

Illegal Immigration and Economic Health

In January 1994, Mexico became a full member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), joining the United States and Canada. Trade with the United States and Canada has tripled since the implementation of NAFTA. As a result, Mexico has a free market economy that recently entered the trillion-dollar class. It contains a mixture of modern and outmoded industry and agriculture, increasingly dominated by the private sector. Recent administrations have expanded competition in sea ports, railroads, telecommunications, electricity generation, natural gas distribution, and airports. However, per capita income is one-quarter that of the United States and income distribution remains highly unequal.

Mexican presence in the US

The border is a challenge for drug running, illegal immigration, and economic trade.

Oil

From a CNN article, we read, "Mexico, one of the largest suppliers of oil to the United States, has a big problem: Its production of crude is falling fast. In 2008, the country's production peaked at 3.2 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Last year, it didn't even produce 3 million a day.

The reason: aging oil fields and years of underinvestment. Industry experts say Mexico could revive production if it allowed more investment from international oil companies. But under current policy, EIA says Mexico will have to start importing oil by 2020. For the United States, the decline in Mexico's oil industry means it will likely be buying more oil from Canada and Saudi Arabia, the No. 1 and No. 2 sources of U.S. oil imports. Mexico is now third."

Mexico faces declining oil production rates as its fields age and the state oil company, PEMEX, still has a monopoly on the business - but one in which reinvestment has not been maintained at sufficient levels.

Mexico has a population of over 112 million, nearly 4 times that of Canada.

A few days before President-elect Nieto's swearing in, he met with re-elected US President Obama.

Let's hope that wise leadership on both sides of the porous border will prevail. Canada, the other major US neighbor, has long maintained peaceful and prosperous relations, and much is to be gained by the same by Mexico.

Venezuela election Sunday has South American impacts

Venezuela is a country of nearly 30 million people, similar to the population of Canada, or California ... Lying on the north coast of South America, it is a state with extremely high biodiversity, with habitats ranging from the Andes mountains in the west to the Amazon Basin rainforest in the south, extensive llanos plains, the Caribbean coast in the center and the Orinoco River Delta in the east.

Venezuela, on the north coast of South America

Sunday, there is an election scheduled for the Presidency. On the one hand, there is Hugo Chavez, a strongman with leftist perspectives, and a fond desire to be considered a leader among a number of sister countries in South America. On the other, there is a formidable challenger in the form of Henrique Capriles Randonski. The outcome is certainly unclear, the election campaign itself has seen instances of violence already, and the possibility remains for much mischief at the ballot boxes on voting day. Chavez, in power for the past 13 years has a long history of overcoming adversities, including surviving a coup attempt in 2002, as well as persevering through his recent bout with cancer.

Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's leader since 1999

From one review, "Chávez describes his policies to be anti-imperialist and he is a vocal critic of neoliberalism and capitalism more generally, Chávez has been a prominent adversary of the United States' foreign policy. Allying himself strongly with the Communist governments of Fidel and then Raúl Castro in Cuba and the Socialist governments of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, his presidency is seen as a part of the socialist "pink tide" sweeping Latin America." Teatree adds that he is a firm and public supporter of Iran's President Ahmadinejad,

Chavez and Iranian President Ahmadinejad - firm ideological allies for over a decade

History and features

Venezuela was colonized by Spain in 1522 despite resistance from indigenous groups. It became the first Spanish American colony to declare independence eventually attaining it in 1830. For the past 182 years, it has had a series of caudillos (military strongmen) as rulers, along with intermittent democratic governments and military dictatorships. Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998, launching what he describes as "the Bolivarian Revolution" which led off with a writing of a new Constitution of Venezuela.

Venezuela consists of 23 states, the Capital District of Caracas, its main and capital city, and Federal Dependencies that have jurisdiction over the country's offshore islands. Interestingly, Venezuela is among the most urbanized countries in Latin America; the vast majority of Venezuelans live in the cities of the north, especially in the capital, Caracas. With the discovery of oil in the early 1900's, Venezuela has since become one of the world's leading exporters, and still has large oil reserves.

Click on image for full picture

Venezuela, the country ...

Caracas, Venezuela's largest and capital city with over 4 million residents, contains 13% of the country's total population.

In sparsely populated southern Venezuela, one can find some of the wildest country on a continent already known for its exotic and pristine landscapes - from the Amazon jungle to the rugged mountainous tip of Argentina.

Venezuela's oil industry, producing over 2 million barrels a day, gives the country financial independence, though the wealth does not seem to trickle too deeply into the population.

The contender

Henrique Capriles Randonski - in a campaign poster - projecting youthful vitality and purpose ... and fashion.

From the BBC, "Henrique Capriles Randonski is 40, single, a lawyer by training, and has so far won every election he has contested. He had been the front-runner ever since Venezuela's united opposition parties announced they would choose a single candidate to stand against President Hugo Chavez in October's presidential poll. As the energetic governor of the state of Miranda, Mr Capriles liked to stay in touch with voters, visiting shantytowns, often on his motorbike, to supervise projects and play basketball with the locals."

From a US blog, Huffington Post, a recent article observes, "Officially, Capriles is a social moderate and advocates Brazilian-style development. That's a shrewd strategy, since Venezuelan politics tends to skew to the left and the Chávez opposition ran into a lot of problems in the past when it was perceived as too fanatically right wing. Capriles says he supports Chávez-style "mission" programs directed at the poor, but would administer the aid more efficiently. The opposition candidate has some street credibility on this score, having previously conducted a zero hunger program while serving as Governor of the important provincial state of Miranda."

Capriles campaigning as the unified candidate by several opposition parties

It is in foreign policy that an upset win by Capriles would have the largest impact. Again from the US blog, which is no friend of conservative perspectives, "it pains me to say it, Capriles could represent an improvement over the present government in certain respects. Over the years, Chávez has chosen to ally himself with some very questionable and politically backward regimes, for example Belarus, known as "Europe's last dictatorship." Capriles by contrast would reconsider ties to Belarus, Iran and Russia.

Such moves would certainly ingratiate Capriles in Washington, and it is not a stretch to imagine that U.S.-Venezuelan relations might recover from their long thaw [does the writer mean "freeze"?? Teatree] under Chávez. If that were to occur, it is also reasonable to assume that the ALBA bloc of left-leaning countries, which is largely reliant and dependent on Chávez's own oil largesse, could really implode and leave a political vacuum in its wake. The most likely beneficiary of such an implosion would likely be Brazil, a country which has begun to contest U.S. dominance in the wider region."

Interesting politics in South America ...

South Sudan, Congo and Mali

Three African countries are in the news this week - none of the reasons are particularly inspiring.

South Sudan - now one year old (July 9, 2011 independence day) is embroiled in a tense, violent confrontation with its parent nation, the Republic of Sudan. After repeated clashes along an undefined and oil-rich border, and arguments and accusations regarding payments for oil shipped north through the Republic of Sudan, South Sudan suspended oil shipments altogether in the past few months. Now South Sudan is struggling without 95% of its revenues from producing oil, and the Republic of Sudan is without 75% of its revenues based on shipping South Sudanese oil. For a while, there were concerns that a full scale war was about to erupt between the two, but that possibility has receded for the time being.

South Sudan, with a lot of oil, and Republic of Sudan owning the only pipeline out to the world market. The two countries haven't solved their issues yet.

In the past week, however, international relief agencies have noted an increasingly dire situation with much of South Sudan's population. Without the government's ability to purchase food internationally (grain), pockets of food shortages are erupting. In the northern Republic of Sudan, significant protests among Khartoum residents have also occurred due to lack of government services.

Both leaders walking together. Republic of Sudan's Bashir wanted for genocide by the International Criminal Court situated in The Hague, Netherlands; South Sudan's Salva Kiir in a cowboy hat.

So, not much of a year to point back to, the question is not only whether South Sudan's 8.2 million population has kept its firm resolve to move forward together, but if they can.

South Sudanese girls overlooking Juba, South Sudan's largest city, and temporary capitol.

Republic of the Congo

Not to be confused with its much larger and [in]famous neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo, this French-speaking West African country has a population of 4 million and its capitol city is Brazzaville.

Click on image for full picture

Republic of the Congo and its larger neighbor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Interestingly, (from Wikipedia) "the Republic of the Congo's sparse population is concentrated in the southwestern portion of the country, leaving the vast areas of tropical jungle in the north virtually uninhabited. Thus, Congo is one of the most urbanized countries in Africa, with 70% of its total population living in a few urban areas, namely in Brazzaville, Pointe-Noire, or one of the small cities or villages lining the 534-kilometre (332 mi) railway which connects the two [main] cities."

The railroad along which 70% of Congo's population lives ...

The impoverished country (wealthy in mineral resources and timber - unable to exploit them for the good of the whole ...)made the news this week when a former warlord, Thomas Lubanga was sentenced to 14 years in prison for using child soldiers during 2002-2003 when the country was engulfed in a civil war - a local conflict within the wider DR Congo war, which left an estimated five million people dead - mostly from hunger and disease.

Thomas Lubanga in the International Criminal Court sentencing proceedings this past week.

In March, Lubanga became the first person to be convicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) since it was set up 10 years ago. Lubanga led the Union of Congolese Patriots, an ethnic militia active in the war that is estimated to have killed 60,000 people. Conflicts continue in the two Congolese countries, ripples still occurring nearly two decades later after the Rwandan genocide unleashed violence throughout Central Africa.

Mali

Mali - now divided between rebels and a tenuous government in the south. The rebels themselves (ethnic Tuaregs and those with a predominately Islamist perspective) have joined forces to create an Islamist state.

The new Islamic state - Azawad - apparently considers ancient Muslim shrines as anathema, and its new leaders have duplicated action taken by the Taliban in Afghanistan when that movement took control of the country in the late 1990s. In the case of the Taliban, its forces destroyed a massive world-heritage Buddha image carved into a mountainside. In the case of the "Islamists of Ansar Dine," they too are destroying world-heritage status religious shrines.

This Buddha image was heavily damaged with direct shelling by the Taliban 13-14 years ago.

Ancient Muslim shrines in Timbuktu are the latest relics deemed offensive to the the Northern Mali's new leaders, supported by Al Qaeda, who have apparently gained the upper hand over the Tuaregs, according to the New York Times.

Strange and sad stories from Africa.

The two Sudans

I think we're on top of the recurring news and trouble spots: Syria, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Israel and the Palestinians, Hamas and Hezbollah, along with the diminished hopes for an Arab "Spring" in Libya, Egypt, and Yemen. Then there's the rather unexpected grasping for others assets by Argentina in the Southern Hemisphere; the endless (it seems) fiscal woes in Europe - Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Iceland. Let's top it off with China's continuing announcements about its ownership of all the South China Sea...

The two Sudans - sliding back into conflict ...

But it is in Africa where we need to return. For the tensions between South Sudan and The Republic of Sudan have ramped up closer and closer to a full scale war. South Sudan, having become independent after a split with the Republic of Sudan just nine months ago, has not been able to successfully negotiate numerous issues with its northern counterpart - borders and oil transportation revenues are the primary issues of disagreement. Complicating these major issues, a number of splinter groups in the area seeking autonomy and/or revenge from either of the two recognized nations, have added their own violence to the mix.

The BBC provides the following timeline (simplified further by Teatree)

1899-1955 - Sudan is under joint British-Egyptian rule.

1956 - Sudan becomes independent.

1958 - General Abboud leads military coup against the civilian government elected earlier in the year

1962 - Civil war begins in the south, led by the Anya Nya movement.

1964 - The "October Revolution" overthrows Abboud and an Islamist-led government is established

1972 - Under the Addis Ababa peace agreement between the government and the Anya Nya, the south becomes a self-governing region.

1978 - Oil discovered in Bentiu in southern Sudan.

1983 - Civil war breaks out again in the south involving government forces and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), led by John Garang (an Iowa State graduate). President Numeiri declares the introduction of Sharia Islamic law.

1985 - After widespread popular unrest, Numayri is deposed by a group of officers and a Transitional Military Council is set up to rule the country.

1993 - Revolution Command Council dissolved after Omar Bashir is appointed president.

1999 - President Bashir dissolves the National Assembly and declares a state of emergency. Sudan begins to export oil.

2002 - Government and SPLA sign landmark ceasefire agreement providing for six-month renewable ceasefire in central Nuba Mountains - a key rebel stronghold.

2003 February - Rebels in western region of Darfur rise up against government, claiming the region is being neglected by Khartoum.

The darfur region of Sudan soon to become characterized with the term genocide

2004 January - Army moves to quell rebel uprising in western region of Darfur; hundreds of thousands of refugees flee to neighbouring Chad. March - UN official says pro-government Arab Janjaweed militias are carrying out systematic killings of non-Arab villagers in Darfur.

2004 September - UN says Sudan has not met targets for disarming pro-government Darfur militias and must accept outside help to protect civilians. US Secretary of State Colin Powell describes Darfur killings as genocide.

The toll in the Darfur region depicted here by a single woman walking past a burnt out village

2005 January - Government and southern rebels sign a peace deal. The agreement includes a permanent ceasefire and accords on wealth and power sharing.

2005 9 July - Former southern rebel leader John Garang is sworn in as first vice president. A constitution which gives a large degree of autonomy to the south is signed. 1 August - Vice president Garang is killed in a plane crash. He is succeeded by Salva Kiir.

2007 October - SPLM temporarily suspends participation in national unity government, accusing Khartoum of failing to honour the 2005 peace deal.

2008 July - The International Criminal Court's top prosecutor calls for the arrest of President Bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur; the appeal is the first ever request to the ICC for the arrest of a sitting head of state. Sudan rejects the indictment.

2009 March - The International Criminal Court in The Hague issues an arrest warrant for President Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.

2009 July - North and south Sudan say they accept ruling by arbitration court in The Hague shrinking disputed Abyei region and placing the major Heglig oil field in the north.

2009 December - Leaders of North and South reach deal on terms of referendum on independence due in South by 2011.

2010 July - International Criminal Court issues second arrest warrant for President al-Bashir - this time on charges of genocide.

Republic of Sudan's President Bashir

2011 July - South Sudan gains independence after referendum earlier in January overwhelmingly backs separate nation.

2011 October - South Sudan and Sudan agree to set up committees tasked with resolving their outstanding disputes.

2011 November - Sudan accused of bombing refugee camp in Yida, Unity State, South Sudan.

2012 January - South Sudan halts oil production after talks on fees for the export of oil via Sudan break down.

2012 February - Sudan and South Sudan sign non-aggression pact at talks on outstanding secession issues, although tensions remain high over oil export fees. South Sudan-Kenya-Ethiopia announce plans to build alternate pipeline route east to Lamu, Kenya.

2012 April - After weeks of border fighting, South Sudan troops temporarily occupy the oil field and border town of Heglig. Sudanese warplanes raid the Bentiu area in South Sudan.

Beyond the timeline, three points might be noted:

This is about oil, not totally, but revenues from oil is key to both nations, and means the tensions will not easily be reduced. Because it is about oil, other powerful nations are going to be interested if not involved: China, the US, and the EU. Indeed, South Sudan's Salva Kiir had to cut short a state visit to China during the past week. China, with its long involvement in Sudan primarily to develop oil production and purchase it, has a delicate line to walk now with both Sudans.

South Sudan President Kiir and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspect Chinese honor guard (a strange custom/ritual that every leader seems to do, walk past a shiny military contingent of the host country).

A toast between the two leaders

This is also about sub-Saharan Africa and Arab northern Africa with Islamist extremism tossed in. Uganda has already declared that it will support South Sudan if the Republic of Sudan army moves south. Kenya is unlikely to stand by. The Republic of Sudan's targeted attacks on populations of non-Arab people groups during the civil war and in Darfur, as noted in the timeline, did not sit well with these two neighbors.

As so many conflicts play out in Africa, they are often low-tech, vicious, and poorly reported on. Here, South Sudanese soldiers patrolling a road

South Sudan has a friend in Israel. Israel has offered strong and steady support for Southern Sudan, both before and after independence, rooted in offsetting the power and cohesion of many Arab states arrayed against it. When the Republic of South Sudan officially declared its independence from Sudan and established itself as the world's newest country, the following day, the State of Israel officially recognized South Sudan and three days later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with South Sudan President Salva Kiir and said that Israel would happy to help the fledgling country in “any way.”

Salva Kiir accepting a menorah from Israeli President Shimon Peres in December 2011 - a token of friendship between the two countries.

Less than two weeks after their declaration of independence, South Sudan and Israel established and formalized their diplomatic relations. A number of revelers in Juba celebrating independence in July 2011 waved Israeli flags, a gesture interpreted by some as a sign of gratitude to Israel for support during years of struggle against the north.

In August 2011, President Kiir announced that he would maintain South Sudan's relations with Israel despite pressure from Arab countries and that he wishes for South Sudan's embassy to be built in Jerusalem, the capital of Israel, and not in Tel Aviv as has become custom for many Western nations due to the perceived disputes over Jerusalem's sovereignty. In the past few weeks, the Republic of Sudan accuses Israel of flying into Juba nightly, full of tangible support of various kinds.

Click on image for full picture

The detail of the two Sudan's conflict - rooted in oil wealth and ethnicity

Question for the day ... Why does the UN (as do many nations I must admit)tend to equalize conflicts by asking "both sides" to refrain from attacks, as if both sides are equally at fault or aggressors when one side or the other is clearly the initiator?

Argentina ready to nationalize Spanish oil company assets

The normally quiet - or ignored - South American continent has cropped up for the third time in a little over a week. We just covered the Summit of the Americas held in Colombia, which will most likely be remembered for US Secret Service agents cavorting in Cartagena. Earlier, we had noted that Argentina had raised a call for a return of the Malvinas (the Falkland Islands) to its jurisdiction on the 30-year anniversary of the UK wresting back control of the islands from an invasion by said Argentina.

Argentina again in the news - eighth-largest country in the world by land area and the largest among Spanish-speaking nations. Its population is over 40 million people.

This week, Argentina shredded amicable relations with Spain (the European nation from which Argentina maintains it received "title" to those Malvina islands, acquired when Argentina became independent from Spain itself in 1816 ...) along with confidence among many of the world's nations and institutions. It did so by announcing its intentions to nationalize assets of a foreign owned oil company, Repsol, that are operating on Argentinian soil under the name YPF. Technically, the country is expropriating (seizing) 51% of the shares of YPF, thus giving Argentina control of the company's decisions and handling of its assets and operations.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

As the UK Guardian newspaper put it, "Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina's president, introduced the new measure to Congress in a bid to recover sovereignty over its national hydrocarbon resources. Kirchner accused Repsol of failing to produce enough oil through YPF to meet Argentina's energy requirements. Repsol's alleged failure threatened to "practically turn us into an un-viable country," Kirchner said. ... Economic and political interest in the country's hydrocarbons has rocketed since the end of last year when YPF announced it had discovered a shale oil site that could potentially yield 1bn barrels. The move to seize 51% of Repsol's YPF business in Argentina sent the company's shares spinning down 18% on Wall Street and will worry other big foreign investors such as BP."

A YPF oil refinery in Argentina, on course to be nationalized by the country as soon as legislation now in the Argentinian Congress is finalized.

And so we enter the murky world of global assets, financial investment, national sovereignty and when it is appropriate to break or suspend prior agreements. Any given country with a military of sufficient strength can simply seize control over facilities within its territory. The repercussions are that usually those who built the assets won't like it, and will resist through legal and/or other means. Governments can either rush legislation through the system ahead of time to give a veneer or respectability to their actions, or make the new legality retroactive, and hope that will suffice.

When the action involves investors or owners of assets outside of the country - as in the case of this oil company YPF, based in Spain - seizure is usually modified and called "nationalization." "Expropriation" is another term which describes the government's recognition that there is value in the assets, and some sort of payment is made to compensate the owners for the loss of those assets. If the compensation is recognized as reasonably fair, that particular point of disagreement may be lessened, but the larger arbitrary action itself is likely to severely reduce the attractiveness of the country for further investments. And then, of course, most countries have agreed in numerous alliances and world courts that they will respect and follow a interlocking set of legal precedents and protocols for arbitrating disagreements. Nationalization (seizure of assets) is quite far down this list of accepted steps.

Argentina's expropriation of YPF's assets will likely be punished by a variety of actions from the G-20 group of nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF headquarters shown here), and the World Bank.

Argentina's planned actions in this case have troubled the very nature of international relations - after all the country is not a small, shaky nation, but the second largest on the 10-nation continent. Nor is this latest announcement an isolated surprise. From a Business Week article, "[Since 2001] Argentina has been a pariah state with international creditors. At the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, Argentina has more disputes pending against it than any other nation."

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Argentine President Kirchner discussing something somewhere but before Chavez began his visible battle with cancer ...

Argentina seems to be following the path vaguely similar to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Some observers point to a charismatic, left-leaning economist in President Kirchner's cabinet, Axel Kicillof, who stridently champion's direct government control rather than corporate control over a country's resources, unfortunately often using bellicose rhetoric to frame his arguments.

Argentine Axel Kicillof, hopefully not another rising personality who will needlessly trouble the world in the decades to come. Teatree emphasizes the word, "needlessly" as the world could use some constructive shaking up of paths being trodden...

As a Reuters article puts it, "Government economist Axel Kicillof stormed the world stage this week when Argentina moved to nationalize energy company YPF, defending the plan he helped devise in a fiery speech worthy of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Charismatic and polarizing, the 40-year-old Kicillof lambasted "free-market fundamentalists" as he defended the push to seize control of YPF from Spain's Repsol. Just four months after taking the deputy economy minister post, Kicillof has penetrated the small circle of trusted advisers to President Cristina Fernandez, who singles him out for praise in her speeches. Sporting sideburns and an open collar, Kicillof told Congress that only "morons" would think the state was stupid enough to play by Repsol's rules and make an offer to buy 100 percent of its shares. He blasted economic theories that "justify the looting of our resources and our companies."

These are not new political battles - capitalism, socialism, who directs, who controls, play out again and again on the global arena. This is just a rather abrupt eruption of the continuing debate. And it has serious consequences, as foreigners are often scapegoated for a country's troubles, and egos among leaders can do much more damage than simply being insufferable to listen to. Just look at Syria, Iran, North Korea to name three whose populations are trapped in the grip of destructive leaders.