Egypt's conflict highlights Western dogma and Islamist challenge

First, let's agree that the recent spate of bloodshed in Egypt is troubling, to be condemned, bad, and truly a growing challenge that will have to be reconciled in that country's political future. The latest count is now over 800 fatalities from protests and street fighting. The majority of the casualties are supporters of the ousted President Morsi, mainly within the ranks of members of the Muslim Brotherhood or its conservative Salafist ally. However there also losses among anti-Morsi supporters (most notably Coptic Christians) as well as the police and military.

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Photos of the clashes are everywhere in the world's media, so here's another unfortunately familiar dreary picture to get us oriented, from www.spiegel.de

The US has apparently retreated, once again, to diplomatic bromides and half measures - for example highlighting the cancellation of a planned joint military exercise with Egypt's authorities, yet quietly continuing its foreign aid to the military rulers. The European Union is "urgently" scheduling a review of its aid to Egypt, and the reasoning given is where the heart of this blogpost begins. An EU spokesperson describes the Western premise as this, "In cooperation with its international and regional partners, the EU will remain firmly engaged in efforts to promote an end to violence, resumption of political dialogue and return to a democratic process..."

Let's look at those three points: an end to violence, resumption of political dialogue, return to a democratic process. Does this fit Egypt? Peace is not merely the absence of violence, but a holistic concept where justice and tolerance are embedded. Political dialogue takes place where all parties submit to the concept of give and take. A democratic process is more than technical elections every so often, a procedure that plenty of authoritarian rulers have become experts at, without the heart of the governing concept.

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from the German news magazine der speigel, "So far, calls by US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns (left, shown in discussion with acting president Adly Mansour) for an agreement between current leaders and Morsi supporters have gone unheeded."

A basic question

Teatree wonders whether Islamists by definition can truly be democratic. If their end goal is the rule of Sharia law, is there opportunity to step back, give and take? Or will they use the tools of the democratic process as mere stepping stones to imposing their brand of theocracy.

If one remembers correctly, the Muslim Brotherhood has given the world al-Qaeda, while the "purer" versions of Islam have given not only the West, but fellow Muslims, a string of statements: embassy bombings, 9-11, bus bombings, suicide bombings, the Taliban and its early act of shelling and destroying old Hindu shrines, and the latest in Mali, the tearing apart of old Muslim shrines. With Islamic extremists, is there realistically an opportunity for dialog, an end to violence, or a commitment to a democratic process?

Another familiar angry picture of Islamists riled up by their religious teachers. This image is from Newsweek's coverage of the non-existent video narrative that was cooked up for unknown purposes by the US government to cover for lax security at its Libyan and Egyptian embassies in 2012.

Some new twists emerge

Yet, while the secular, modern West wrings its hands over the Egyptian violence, support for Egypt's military rulers is coming unexpectedly from one moderate Muslim kingdom - Jordan. Equally surprising, Palestinian President Abbas has also signaled his support for the Egyptian military. Several other Arab countries have voiced support for Egypt's military but these two leaders' positions are worth taking notice.

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Palestinian President Abbas sides with Egypt's ruler against the Muslim Brotherhood

Could these leaders be the harbinger of moderate Muslim voices finally rising up to say enough? Is it similar to the more violent 2006 uprising in Iraq where Sunni tribes (with much to resent regarding the new Shiite led Iraqi government), finally said enough to the ultra violent Al-qaeda.

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Mohammed Al-Zawahiri, the brother of Al-Qaeda Chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri, has reportedly been arrested in Egypt. Photo from www.news.com.au

Ethnic cleansing occurring quietly in Egypt? Or just "acts" of ethnic cleansing.

Amid heavy coverage and soul searching regarding the Egyptian military response, there has nevertheless been a string of reporting regarding the Muslim Brotherhood turning its anger against Coptic Christians in Egypt. The Christian minority in that country (10% of the nation's total population of around 85 million) has experienced a wave of arson attacks against churches (approximately 50 have been burned or looted in the past several weeks) as well as highly publicized killings of priests and Christian leaders. One Catholic article rather breathtakingly described the situation as an early posture of ethnic cleansing.

St. Mary Church in Fayoum attacked, looted. Caption and photo from http://egyptianstreets.com

But on a more hopeful note. There are also reports that neighborhood watches are forming, resisting the mobs of the Muslim brotherhood. And of moderate Muslims taking the risky stand to protect neighbors and churches in their locale - at least this is the story floating around on the internet accompanying the photo below. (Teatree is becoming a bit suspicious of this photo as no authoritative source can be found.)

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An unfamiliar, yet hopeful, necessary, sign. (Unfortunately, the timeline of this photo is a little vague, as well as the specific church. One report says it was St Georges in Sohag - if so, then this picture was taken a while ago, because according to the Washington Post, that church was indeed attacked and burned in just the past few days.)

The confrontation between responsible moderate Muslims and the extremists is probably the battle that must first be enjoined before moving on to the next step of building political democracy and the three "pillars" described earlier by the EU. What is the heart of Islam? Is it jihad against the infidel, or a more moderate set of beliefs that can live in the larger world. Perhaps in Egypt, the most populous Arab nation that has always exercised leadership, there can emerge a home-grown, internal religious stance against extremists, showing tolerance and acceptance of others.

And perhaps it is best the West is "left out" of the forefront of this revolution as its presence morphs the tensions and violence into a geopolitical framework. As with the tense situation in Pakistan, and the disaster in Syria, these confrontations are overwhelmingly Muslim vs Muslim - with Shiite-Sunni reverberations yes - and ultimately a conflict where extremism will take over this world religion if not challenged.

Uganda's role in regional peacekeeping forces to end

Friday, November 2, the Uganda government announced it was going to withdraw its military forces from various regional UN-authorized peacekeeping efforts across Africa. The announcement is not a good omen for the efforts involved, most noticeably the sizable force considered the backbone of UN efforts to establish a legitimate government in Somalia.

The reason

The BBC notes that the UN infuriated the government of Uganda when it published an experts' report last month accusing Uganda of arming Congolese rebels. The report said Rwanda and Uganda were both supplying weapons to the M23 rebels in the DR Congo. This long running conflict has forced some 500,000 from their homes since April, 2012.

This M23 group - led by Bosco "Terminator" Ntaganda - who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on war crimes charges - is merely the latest ascendance of constantly shifting and coalescing rebel groups in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The region has never been brought under control of any government since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.

Bosco Ntaganda, operations leader of the latest ascendant rebel group, the M23, in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Rwanda's current leader, Paul Kagame(a Tutu) and Uganda, under the leadership of Yoweri Museveni, opposed the Hutu-led government and militias that slaughtered nearly a million Tutsis and moderate Hutus during that three month period in 1994, and during the past two decades Rwanda has continued to back armed groups in the east of DR Congo as a way to fight Hutu rebels who fled there after the genocide.

The troubled eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with Rwanda and Uganda neighboring.

M23 rebels moving to a position

The BBC article continues by quoting, Mr Mukasa, Uganda's Security Minister, told a news conference: "If our efforts are going to be misinterpreted and we are going to be maligned, we want to be in a good relationship with our neighbours. "Let's stop all these initiatives. We will concentrate on ourselves. Whoever wants to cause us trouble, they will find us at our home."

Uganda Security Minister, Wilson Mukasa

Places where Uganda troops are stationed.

The BBC notes that operations in Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo will be affected. Uganda provides the largest contingent to the UN-backed African Union mission in Somalia (Amisom) (7500 of the force's 16500 total). The Amisom force has helped the Somali government gain ground against Islamist militias. Analysts say a rapid withdrawal of Ugandan troops could threaten those gains.

Over 7500 Ugandan troops serving under the UN flag in Somalia

Ugandan troops are deployed in smaller numbers to an international mission to CAR and DR Congo to hunt down the remaining elements of the Lord's Resistance Army and its leader, Joseph Kony.

Ugandan troops deployed to search for the LRA leader, Joseph Kony, in both Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo

African conflicts across the midsection of the continent

The Horn of Africa - Somalia is the center of this large region of conflict - Islamists (Al Shabaab) and famine, piracy - with Ethiopian, Kenyan, Burundian, and Ugandan soldiers comprising the UN peacekeeping force establishing security in what is known as the prime example of a failed state.

Sudan/South Sudan - the continuing battle of Islamist Sudan vs the black African South Sudan - the current point of conflict is over oil resources along the two country's border.

Mali/Nigeria - both battling Islamists with Al Qaeda sympathies, along with corruption in their own government.

Rwanda/Democratic Republic of Congo - the longest, deadliest, and most under-reported conflict on the continent.

Troubles, troubles, everywhere.

Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey feeling Syria's civil war

The Syrian civil war is intermittently spilling over into its neighbors: Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. Of these three, Lebanon has been the most closely tied to the Assad regime in Syria, and it is no surprise that this small country is the most vulnerable to serious unraveling.

Syria and its four neighbors - Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq

The civil war itself in Syria has been well covered by journalists, and in this blog. The death toll is now estimated from 28 to 45,000, with the highest being reported by the Syrian Free Army (SFA). By October 2012, the FSA estimates another 28,000 people are "missing," as in taken by government security forces into custody. It goes without saying that the numbers of wounded and injured are considerably higher - hospitals and medical personnel are overwhelmed by the carnage.

As always, children are the most vulnerable in a war setting, and humanitarian efforts are always inadequate

The UN estimates another 1.2 million Syrians have been internally displaced within the country, and hundreds of thousands have fled across the border, principally to Turkey, next to Jordan, with smaller percentages into Iraq and Lebanon. The infrastructure of the country is further degraded daily as Syrian government forces are now routinely using air power in bombing and strafing opposition concentrations.

Syrian jet launches missile

The country's infrastructure crumbles daily

The most immediate impact on Syria's neighbors are from civilians fleeing the conflict. Refugee camps are being erected in Turkey primarily, Jordan second, while Iraq's desert border is less hospitable both in terms of access by most of the Syrian population, and lack of infrastructure in Iraq for this relief work.

Refugee camp being set up in Turkey.


Lebanon

Lebanon is a special case. It is in a fragile state politically, and a car bomb last week killed a senior intelligence official who was against Syria's Bashar al-Assad. The killing emphasized the presence and reach of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who strongly supports Assad, as does Iran. Because of the strategic dynamics of Iran and Hezbollah supporting Assad, the "arc" of belligerency in the region, Lebanon is especially challenged to remain independent and able to defend its borders.

Lebanon's capital, Beirut, is close to Syria's capital Damascus, and both are close to the borders with Israel

Masked gunmen from the al-Muqdad clan gather at the al-Muqdad family association’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut. As always, clan and tribal loyalties grow important in a region of tension, as middle or neutral ground erodes as an option for most civilians.

Lebanon has vast refugee camps from 1948 that have grown into permanent towns. Residents of this camp are Palestinians who fled the war of Arab nations against Israel when that country fought for its sovereignty. From the camps derives much of the manpower and ideology of Hezbollah.

Much of southern Lebanon is a security zone butting up against Israel - here a protest crowd confronts a line of Israeli soldiers.

The Syrian civil war continues to threaten the whole region. It will become one of many festering issues for the next US President as that country's election nears.

al Qaeda-Islamist attack on 9/11/12 - just a "bump in the road"?

On September 11, 2012, eleven years after the twin towers attack in New York City, Muslim protests erupted in two Arab countries Egypt and Libya, and nearly two weeks later, had been seen in Tunisia, Morocco, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Gaza, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Lebanon, Greece, and Turkey.

Western Embassies targeted by Muslim protests

The first protests, while genuine and against what the crowds had been told was a film insulting the Prophet Mohammed, were initially described as "spontaneous" though that description quickly lost credibility over the next few days. The remaining protests became more and more clearly understood as being the work of Islamists or governments intent on whipping up anti-Western sentiment in broad terms.

In particular, Lebanon's Hezbollah Islamist leader, Sheikh Nasrallah, was delighted with the opportunity. He called for a week of protests not only against American embassies, but also to press Muslim governments to express their own anger to the US. He branded the video an "unprecedented" insult to Islam - worse, he said, than Salman Rushdie's novel The Satanic Verses and the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, which were published in a Danish newspaper in 2005.

Most sobering, the death toll itself began climbing immediately on September 11 with the killing of the US Ambassador to Libya along with three other American diplomatic staff who had been trapped in the Libyan city of Benghazi. Through today, 30 more have been reported dead: four NATO soldiers in Afghanistan, 15 Pakistanis involved in the protests in that country, and 11 Libyans.

The unrest seems to be subsiding, though Monday, September 24th, a Pakistani lawmaker placed a $100,000 bounty on the head of the alleged filmmaker from California, even as Pakistan's government distanced itself from that lawmaker's call.

The most shocking incident occurred in Libya, where US Ambassador Chris Stevens - a strong supporter of the promises possible within the "Arab Spring" and fluent in Arabic - along with three other of his diplomatic staff were hunted down and killed.

Even in Greece, riot police had to be called out to contain Muslim protests. French and German embassies were also targeted in various countries in the past dozen days.

The fundamental details in this spasm of violence remain disputed

* The US Embassy in Egypt, which had been breached for hours by protestors on September 11, quickly apologized to the crowds for the film. That apology however, was later disputed by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, and later rescinded or "clarified" differently by the White House.

* The "film" was described as being produced by a variety of culprits. One after another, names surfaced as to who was responsible. First, there were reports that it was the work of the infamous Koran-burning pastor from Florida Terry Jones, next by a Coptic Christian, then a Californian named Steve Klein and finally along came another mysterious consultant called Sam Bacile. As a week passed, there were accusations of others being involved, characterized interestingly as a "Jew" or an "evangelical Christian" each increasingly appearing as continuing attempts to provide the right labels to keep the outrage alive.

* Reports after the first few days, however, showed up backing down slightly from the film. For example, the film was described as "a crude effort", then alternatively a homemade video, (which incidentally had been on you-tube for over two months). After a full week since the killings in Libya, and after the media had generated stories by the hundreds accepting the "film" label, the New York Times and the Christian Science Monitor both published articles noting that the word Muhammed was dubbed over in post-production, as were essentially all other offensive references to Islam. Each article questioned whether this film/video with the intent to insult the Prophet was genuine, or had someone doctored it with religious terms for their own purposes.

Nevertheless, the organizers of the protests have carried the day, and the dominant media narrative remains "an insulting film."

US stumbles on reaction

* The White House stuck to the story for several days that the US ambassador was killed by protestors, in spite of numerous claims, including by the Libyan government itself, that the killers were either Islamist militias or an al-Qaeda affiliate - Ansar al-Sharia or Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb - taking advantage of the protests.

* After the evidence grew overwhelming, President Obama vowed that the killers would be brought to justice and that Marines were being sent to bolster security in a number of embassies. Two destroyers were moved towards the Libyan coast.

* Yet after a week of relative silence in the search for those responsible, Libyans themselves took it upon themselves to rush known Islamist militia strongholds in Benghazi and other cities and chased them out at the cost of another eleven dead. Apparently the US, with all its military and intelligence assets could not ferret out what the locals knew, or did not calculate that it was worth the effort to bring them to said justice.

What is next?

The challenge is on for most Arab governments (Iran and Gaza probably the exceptions) to balance the anger whipped up over the film or video, with the responsibility to provide security for Western embassies. For example, Egypt's new President Mohammed Morsi, an Islamist who is Egypt’s first freely elected president said "Expressing opinion, freedom to protest and announcing positions is guaranteed but without assaulting private or public property, diplomatic missions or embassies.”

Protests okay (staged and encouraged) in Muslim countries, along with fatwas, but not free speech in Western countries?

The US administration is under pressure with questions of why more security was not being provided for staff at embassies in volatile nations - reports are that Marines at the Egyptian embassy were not allowed to carry live ammunition.

President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, White House spokesman Jay Carney, have yet to agree on the timetable of events, their policy position, and the importance of future actions

President Obama was under scrutiny by a growing number of journalists for his low-key, and unclear stance regarding the US ambassador killing and response as well as his statement just today. "In the interview itself, Obama was responding when asked if recent events in the Middle East gave him pause for supporting governments that came to power following a wave of regime changes known as the Arab Spring.

He said he has long noted that events were going to be rocky, adding that the question itself ‘‘presumes that somehow we could have stopped this wave of change.’’

‘‘I think it was absolutely the right thing for us to align ourselves with democracy, universal rights. ... But I was pretty certain and continue to be pretty certain that there are going to be bumps in the road because — you know, in a lot of these places — the one organizing principle has been Islam.’

In the next few days, a UN gathering of world leaders in New York City will provide plenty of opportunity for inflaming rhetoric, vague contradictory platitudes, and one might only hope a few more courageous and wise observations of leadership.

Iran's president anticipating his remarks on the world stage ...

Egypt's revolution adrift ...

Egypt's 81 + million population, the most among the Arab nations, lives concentrated in cities, towns, and villages along the Nile River.


The fertile delta of the Nile, as it enters the Mediterranean Sea, is lit up with Egyptian life (Israeli population centers to the right)

It has been nearly 18 months now, since Egypt's revolution and the new slogan, "Arab Spring" emerged. Following closely on Tunisia's popular uprising, Egypt's initial resistance was youth dominated and included the strong presence of women. The huge street protests eventually resulted in the crumbling of support for Hosni Mubarak, the strong man ruler of the country for over 30 years. While Mubarak sat in prison awaiting trial on charges of murder stemming from putting down street protests (plus corruption charges and a number of others), a series of elections promised by the military, were held. A new parliament was elected, dominated by Islamists, most strikingly the Muslim Brotherhood which had been banned under Mubarak and whose ideology raises concerns across the Western world. And now, one of two candidates stand ready to take on the formal reins of power in the next few weeks.

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The formalities of the trial of former President Mubarak, as well as a cohort of relatives and close allies.

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Egyptians in their common dress, watched the trial unfolding on TV.

Last week, the trial of Hosni Mubarak and associates concluded. The verdicts were mixed, pleasing very few it seems. Mubarak was sentenced to life in prison, some police officers were acquitted. One Mubarak son was sentenced to time already served, etc. And a variety of street protests began again - not a bad thing in itself as before the population had little opportunity to express itself.

Many protested against Mubarak getting "only" a life sentence

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Others used the occasion to protest against continued military rule. This man holds a placard with script made of spent bullet cartridges "Down with Military Rule"

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Some, looking ahead, protested against Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq being one of the final two presidential candidates.

Indeed, one of the mysteries of the presidential election is that one of the two runoff candidates is actually Mubarak's former Prime Minister. Who is supporting this man with enough votes to challenge the other candidate, Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi? Regardless, voting for Egypt's President is scheduled to begin June 16, and the odds on favorite is an Islamist.

The next President of Egypt is one of these two men. Ahmed Shafiq, left, or Mahmoud Morsi, right.

A Canadian Free Press article summarizes it this way, "Now Islamists make up a majority in the Egyptian Parliament. Their presidential candidate, Mahmoud Morsi, is an Islamist. The opposition candidate, Ahmed Shafiq, is from the old regime, a military member and a Mubarak look-alike. Corrupted elections fraught with bribes – votes traded for oil, rice and potatoes—brought them about. All are advocates of Islamic Sharia law, a state religious system having nothing in common with democratic principles, now making the outcome for the people of Egypt a grim reality."

Why so grim an assessment? The world will find out soon what leadership the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to bring. However, one of the darker aspects of this past week's protests was another attack on Friday by a mob of Egyptian men on a group of women who were attempting to highlight rampant sexism in Egyptian culture. The women were groped and beaten, with reports of some being sexually assaulted. An ugly statement - some saying it was a clear message that women would have little social space in the upcoming society beyond that of home.

Egyptian women definitely do NOT have any safer or broader space in Egypt's new democracy.

An AP story describes the situation this way, "Sexual harassment of women, including against those who wear the Islamic headscarf or even cover their face, is common in the streets of Cairo. A 2008 report by the Egyptian Center for Women's Rights says two-thirds of women in Egypt experienced sexual harassment on a daily basis. A string of mass assaults on women in 2006 during the Muslim feast following the holy month of Ramadan prompted police to increase the number of patrols to combat it but legislation providing punishment was never passed.

After Friday's attack, many were already calling for another, much larger stand in the square against such assaults.

Another participant in Friday's march, Ahmed Hawary, said a close female friend of his was attacked by a mob of men in Tahrir Square in January. She was rushed off in an ambulance, which was the only way to get her out, he said. After suffering from a nervous breakdown, she left Cairo altogether to work elsewhere in Egypt.

"Women activists are at the core of the revolution," Hawary said. "They are the courage of this movement. If you break them, you break the spirit of the revolution.

Full article at http://news.yahoo.com/mob-attacks-women-egypt-anti-sex-assault-rally-212911011.html

From Nigeria to Egypt to Somalia ...

Nigeria, Libya, South Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia - each of these countries across North Africa made the news this past week for a variety of reasons.

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Nigeria - The onslaught of the Boko Haram in northern Nigeria escalated this week with the group’s deadliest ever strike on Jan. 20 in Nigeria’s second largest city of Kano. There, a coordinated set of gun and bomb attacks killed at least 185 people. Heavily criticized amid the escalating violence, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan urged the Boko Haram to enter dialogue, challenging the violent Islamist sect to identify themselves and state clearly their demands as a basis for talks, while acknowledging that military confrontation alone will not end their insurgency. At the presidential villa in the capital Abuja, President Jonathan said, “If they clearly identify themselves now and say this is the reason why we are resisting, this is the reason why we are confronting government or this is the reason why we destroy some innocent people and their properties ... then there will be a basis for dialogue.”

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Nigeria with the city of Kano as the site of the latest violence, and the district of Sokoto to the northwest now under threat. In the farther northeast, the town of Maiduguri is considered a stronghold of Boko Haram.

In another report, Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa told journalists Sunday by telephone in the northeastern city of Maiduguri that Jonathan’s call for talks was “not sincere.” Moreover, the spokesman declared that if captured members of the group were not released, it “will launch attacks in Sokoto (another Northern Nigerian city) similar to the big Kano attacks.”

And from Reuters, "Islamist sect Boko Haram, whose attacks have killed hundreds in Nigeria, will continue its campaign until the country is ruled by sharia law, a senior member was quoted as saying by British newspaper, The Guardian. The same Abu Qaga told the Guardian, "We will consider negotiation only when we have brought the government to their knees, ... Once we see that things are being done according to the dictates of Allah, and our members are released (from prison), we will only put aside our arms - but we will not lay them down. You don't put down your arms in Islam, you only put them aside."

Boko Haram fighters. From a Cameroonian blogsite, a breakdown of boko haram is instructive: “The ideology and philosophy of the movement can best be understood by explicating the two words- “Boko” and “Haram”. In Hausa language, the word “boko” is an equivocal term which means either “Western” or foreign; while the word “haram” is an Arabic derivative meaning “forbidden”. Piecing the two words together, ‘boko haram’ means to forbid everything Western and Western education. The intent is to replace modern state formation with the traditional Islamic state, because Western values run contrary to Islamic values. (Teatree - it is a strange bit of logic that Western values are to be rejected while Western armaments are embraced)

Libya From Nigeria northeast to Libya, the hopes that the ouster of Gaddafi would lead to a clear improvement in governance was dealt a blow when Gaddafi loyalists retook Bani Walid. According to a Christian Science Monitor article, hundreds of well-equipped and highly trained remnants of Qaddafi forces raised the green flag over buildings in the western city late Monday after hours of clashes, said Mubarak al-Fatamni, the head of Bani Walid local council.

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Bani Walid once again under Gaddafi loyalist control

The retaking of this former Gaddafi stronghold comes as Libya's new leaders struggle to unify the oil-rich North African nation three months after the former dictator was captured and killed. There are new reports of torture in various prisons around the country, themselves held by a variety of militia's more or less acting on their own.

Bani Walid showing the scars of the recent fight, with apparently more to come.

South Sudan Moving Southeast from Libya, the world's newest country, South Sudan, is facing enormous difficulties. Once of the latest issues is a dispute with the Republic of Sudan over the transport fees in sending its oil north through pipelines for export. With the Republic of Sudan making demands that South Sudan considers unacceptable, it is mulling cutting off oil supplies altogether as a way to raise the stakes.

Ripe for disagreement or mutual benefit: Oil, transit, South Sudan, and the Republic of Sudan

The South Sudanese government has apparently decided to shut down oil flow north, in hopes of pressuring the Republic of Sudan to give better terms for the use of the pipelines.

The Republic of Sudan, meanwhile, is facing its own crisis with Chinese oil workers kidnapped by internal rebels. (What was first reported as five, the number was raised to 29, and the latest is approximately 70.) The men were working Saturday when they were abducted in the southern Kordofan province, the epicenter of Sudan's oil industry and next to Darfur where ethnic African rebels are fighting the Arab-dominated government.

"We are doing our best efforts to find them," Chinese Ambassador to Sudan Li Chengwen told The Associated Press. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the kidnapping and the circumstances of their capture remain unclear. The rebels, along with many international rights activists, accuse China of indirectly funding Khartoum's war effort in Darfur through massive investment in Sudan's oil industry.

Chinese oil workers in the Republic of Sudan

Egypt North from South Sudan to Egypt, the disquieting results of the "Arab Spring" came in the form of Islamists filling the first round of parliamentary positions. From the New York Times, Islamists,propelled largely by the Muslim Brotherhood, won the overwhelming majority of seats in Egypt's parliament, which held its first session Jan. 23 and is set to elect a 100-member panel to draft a new constitution. The "mainstream" Brotherhood won about 47 percent of the seats, and an alliance of ultraconservative Islamists known as the Salafis gained another 25 percent."

For most of its 84-year history, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest and most organized political group, had been banned from political participation, but that changed last spring with the revolt that led to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.

The young leaders who began the revolt won only a few percent of the seats in parliament.

Protests over Egypt's interim army rulers continue, and no one really knows what the future holds for an eventual new government - Islamic rule clashing with secular and modern values seems most likely.

Kenya South from Egypt to Kenya. A Christian Science Monitor article reports, "The International Criminal Court in The Hague has sent a signal that there are consequences for political leaders who use violence to achieve political goals by confirming charges of crimes against humanity against four prominent Kenyans. Whether this changes the political landscape, ends the culture of impunity, or prevents future violence in Kenya, is a matter for Kenyans themselves to decide."

The article continues, "In its decision, announced from the Hague today, the ICC confirmed charges of crimes against humanity first laid in Dec. 2010 against four men for their alleged role in organizing mass violence following the 2007 presidential elections. The charged are former Higher Education Minister William Ruto, former Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, former civil service chief Francis Muthaura, and radio talk show host Joshua arap Sang. The four men are accused of organizing mass violence following the disputed presidential elections of 2007, in which President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner. Senior leaders of both main parties, the president’s Party of National Unity and the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, are accused of stirring up ethnic violence for political advantage and retribution. At least 1,200 people were killed and 600,000 displaced from their homes.

Two of the accused, Mr. Ruto and Mr. Kenyatta, have declared their intentions to run for president in the 2013 elections, and the newly written Kenyan constitution is ambiguous on whether those facing criminal charges can run for public office. “The constitution does not forbid a person from running for office who is faced with criminal charges,” said Comfort Ero, who heads an International Crisis Group based in Nairobi. But the constitution does say that a president who faces criminal charges is vulnerable to impeachment, and in that spirit, Ruto and Kenyatta could possibly be tossed out of office with a two-thirds vote of parliament. The question is more a political and moral one than it is a legal one,” she adds. “How will Kenyans react to this decision? How will they feel about a candidate, knowing that he faces such charges? Is this the sort of person they want to have in office?”

A combination photograph shows Kenya's finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta (L) addressing a news conference in his office in the capital Nairobi in a file photo, and former Kenyan cabinet minister William Ruto, both running for the Kenyan presidency.

South Sudan, Republic of Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia

Ethiopia. Back north to Ethiopia. Here, the Africa Union is meeting in a brand new headquarters. It was built as a gift by China - illustrating the ties China is building in various African nations.

Not bad, hopefully the new building will house strong, ethical institutions and allow similar decision making in Africa to grow.

Somalia The last of the brief country highlights. A US special forces raid freed two aid workers unharmed who had been held for nearly three months. Jessica Buchanan, 32, and Poul Hagen Thisted, 60 were abducted on Oct. 25 in Galkayo, while visiting a de-mining project there, according to their employer, the Copenhagen-based Danish Refugee Council.

Somalia, splintered now for decades, has Kenyan troops pushing from the southwest, and Africa Union forces supporting a weak central government, against the main Islamist group, Al Shaabab, in control of most everywhere else. Famine and lack of security go hand in hand in this stricken land.

So this long blog post covers thousands of miles and a reminder of how big and varied is just the north half of the African continent.