North Korea

North Korea
The always bombastic and unpredictable North Koreans go hysterical again. This time the country is prepared to "go to war" with South Korea because that country is playing loudspeakers directed at North Korean territory. A headline from a UK paper reads, "More than 50 North Korea submarines 'leave their bases' as war talks with South continue "
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Sunday, July 27, 2014

India challenges international trade agreement over food security

While the world remains fixated, and probably rightly so, on the carnage across the Middle East (ISIS, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and now once again Hamas and Israel), another meeting occurred in the past two days that nevertheless deserves more attention.

Last Friday at a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, a reasonably low key meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) erupted in anger when India refused to go along with a slide towards greater trade liberalization understandings. Called the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), India signaled it would not sign the document as its food security concerns had not been adequately addressed.

Grain being loaded into ocean going vessel. Grain reserves and ability to move volumes from areas of surplus to areas of need is important, but not to the point of stifling the vitality of local agricultural sectors. Photo from www.telestack.com

In uncharacteristic fashion, India's stance provoked angry rhetoric from the US. "Today we are extremely discouraged that a small handful of members in this organisation are ready to walk away from their commitments at Bali, to kill the Bali agreement, to kill the power of that good faith and goodwill we all shared, to flip the lights in this building back to dark," U.S. Ambassador Michael Punke said in a statement.

In addition, the EU and Australia also sent India a letter stating their concern that the reluctance of India would bring further trade liberalization to a crawl.

What's the issue?

India in the past several rounds of WTO meetings has requested a satisfactory set of guarantees that food security for its millions of poorer citizens would not be jeopardized by further liberalization of food trade. As an article from the www.dnaindia.com describes it in detail:

"The TFA aims to fast track any movement of goods among countries by cutting down bureaucratic obligations. The problem with TFA runs in a clause that says farm subsidies cannot be more than 10 percent of the value of agricultural production. If the cap is breached, other members can challenge it and also go on to impose trade sanctions on the country.

The developing countries would have a problem with the solutions offered by the developed countries as without the subsidies the food security of the developing nations could be seriously harmed. India agreed to the TFA in Bali only under the condition that interim relief would be provided to the developing nations. It said no legal actions or sanctions would be imposed on the developing nations till 2017, by which time a solution would be worked out among the nations. However, this interim relief would not be applicable if such subsidies would lead to trade distortions, by which one means, that prices of exports and imports cannot be affected by this.

India's Food Security Act, which is binding on the government by law now, implies that the government will provide very cheap food to the most vulnerable part of the population at extremely low prices. Apart from providing subsidies to the consumers, through the public distribution system, it also provides subsidies to the producers of food grains. So it buys food grains from farmers at a minimum support price, and subsidizes inputs like electricity and fertilizer.

The first problem is with the 10% cap on subsidies which will not be possible for India to achieve. Adding to the woes is the fact that the 10% cap is calculated based on 1986-88 prices when the prices of food grains were much lower. So the cap has to be updated taking into account the present prices of foodgrains.

The second problem is that even for providing subsidized food, India will have to open up its own stockpiling to international monitoring. It will not be able to add protein heavy grains like say, lentils, if it wants to, due to riders in the peace clause.

Third, it might seem unfair to developing countries to not crack down on farm subsidies that the United States provides to its farmers to the tune of more than $20 billion per year. While the WTO is binding the developing countries to protocols, the issue of subsidies by developed giants like US seems to be off the table."

Observations

India's new prime minister Modi is bringing some backbone to the world stage. Good for him.

India's new Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Photo from www.thenews.com.pk

US Ambassador Punke is sounding like a punk. When one of the countries objecting to the TFA happens to be the 2nd most populous nation on earth, his description of "small handful of members" mis-characterizes the size and importance of the objection.

Michael Punke serves as Deputy United States Trade Representative and U.S. Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland. (Teatree has no idea whether Punke is a punk, he might be a nice guy. But the criticism stands ...) Photo from en.mercopress.com

New leader of the WTO, Brazilian diplomat Roberto Carvalho de Azevedo, now has some serious work cut out for him. Teatree sincerely wishes him success in satisfying that "small member" India, while moving trade liberalization forward.

Azevedo leads the WTO, and his diplomatic skills are about to be called upon. Photo from inspirerende.wordpress.com

Western countries do subsidize their agricultural systems heavily, and don't like anyone pointing that out. Food security for any nation should be high priority. Subsidies - such as cheap bread in Egypt and several other countries - may not be efficient, but Teatree is all for supporting local home grown food programs and resisting cheap grain by the ship from nations which have industrialized their own food growing sector.

Food production in India may be outdated and inefficient, but there is a fine line between pulling the rug out from under a vital rural lifestyle and substituting efficient large farm systems leaving significant segments of poor rural citizens with little skills for other work. Photo from www.rural.nic.in

This is ALWAYS an under-the-radar issue for the West which works best when kept low key. Hear, hear for India to bring it to the surface.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Elections for the EU, Lithuania, and Ukraine

One could write about elections in one form or another each week all year: real ones, important ones, fake ones, rigged ones, disappointing ones. Then there are periodic changes in absolute monarchies, family dynasties, military takeovers, and various forms of anarchy and failed states. The world is really in a constant churn ...

Across Europe, there were elections this past week where European Union countries held votes to select their nations' representation in the European Union Parliament.

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The 28 member nations of the European Union. There are six additional countries in the midst of formal membership inclusions steps: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Turkey. Other countries, including Ukraine, wish to formally enter the long process of becoming EU members. Graphic from http://3cursa.wikispaces.com

From the EU website, "The EU is a unique economic and political partnership between 28 European countries that together cover much of the continent. The EU was created in the aftermath of the Second World War. From the EU website itself, "The first steps were to foster economic cooperation: the idea being that countries who trade with one another become economically interdependent and so more likely to avoid conflict. The result was the European Economic Community (EEC), created in 1958, and initially increasing economic cooperation between six countries ... Since then, a huge single market has been created and continues to develop towards its full potential.

What began as a purely economic union has evolved into an organisation spanning policy areas, from development aid to environment. A name change from the EEC to the European Union (EU) in 1993 reflected this. The EU is based on the rule of law: everything that it does is founded on treaties, voluntarily and democratically agreed by all member countries. These binding agreements set out the EU's goals in its many areas of activity: Mobility, growth, stability and a single currency.

The EU has delivered half a century of peace, stability and prosperity, helped raise living standards, and launched a single European currency, the euro. Thanks to the abolition of border controls between EU countries, people can travel freely throughout most of the continent. And it's become much easier to live and work abroad in Europe. The single or 'internal' market is the EU's main economic engine, enabling most goods, services, money and people to move freely..."

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A big EU parliament at work, headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. Photo from www.enet.gr

This week's elections, however, found plenty of Europeans voting for Euro-skeptics, with a few parties and individuals standing out. These new voices have serious reservations about the reach and scope of the organization, even as most member nations are fretting over Russian expansion in Ukraine and Georgia. In particular, there are high tensions over immigration, and financial bailouts for poor performing EU member states.

One of the more dramatic results was in France where Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party could find itself with 25 seats, up from just 3 seats in 2009.

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Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party, holds just two seats in France's parliament, but 23-25 in France's allotment of 74 seats in the EU. Photo from scenarieconomici.it

In the UK, the Euroskeptic UKIP party leading for the most seats of the 74 alloted to that country, with similar skepticism finding voice in other EU countries - Denmark and Hungary for two.

The EU parliament has approximately 750 seats, seemingly unwieldy, but once the votes settle in with firmer numbers, there will no doubt still be a majority in full accord with EU goals and vision. Germany in particular, with the largest number of seats (96) in the EU parliament, maintains its orientation towards European integration (though with tough financial standards).

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A Slovenian representative (left) speaks with German delegates at a recent EU gathering. The recent surge in EU skeptics will likely mean a "rightward" tack in the organization, where certain issues will be dealt with than others, but not a breakdown in the entity by any means. Photo from ec.europa.eu (Dr. Janez Potoċnik, Slovenia)

But there is unrest in the organization, somehow similar yet much more complex than the United States where 435 members of Congress representing 315 million are polarized (but at least speaking American english). Imagine the complexity of the EU with 500 million citizens, and dozens of languages. The EU in that sense is closer to India, with its dozens of languages, religions, and 790 seats (though outpacing either the US or EU, with 1.2 billion citizens).

In Europe especially, immigration concerns and strong nationalistic strains tend to bring up reminders of the dangers of far right ideologies - overt anti-semitism and fascism - so separating true concerns from these more extreme views will be the challenge.

On to the Ukraine

It appears that a billionaire who runs a chocolate industry in the Ukraine will be the next President of this fractured country. Petro Poroshenko, aka the "Chocolate King," won more than 50% of the vote, which avoided a runoff in June. A former economics and foreign minister, ironically, he served in the cabinet of his the previous ousted President Viktor Yanukovych. Mr Poroshenko has major challenges ahead, to say the least: armed pro-Russian separatists, and big natural gas bills to be paid might top the list.

New Ukraine President Poroshenko, with wife Marina behind to the right speaking to the press. Photo from www.veooz.com

On to Lithuania

In contrast to the surprise of the EU elections, and to the drama in Ukraine, there is a steadier election result in the small Baltic state of Lithuania.

Lithuania, with a population of just over 3 million, also has similar tensions between its native Lithuania population and a sizable presence of Russians - a legacy from the Soviet Empire days. Graphic from geography.howstuffworks.com

Dalia Grybauskaite won her second term as President of this country, and she ran her campaign on a tough stance towards Russian expansionism. As one article writes, "President Grybauskaite has welcomed the presence of NATO troops in Lithuania since the upheaval in Ukraine. The 58-year-old president has a karate black belt and promised during the campaign that she would not be intimidated by Russian aggression, saying "I'll take a gun myself to defend the country if that what's needed for national security."

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2nd term Lithuania President Dalia Grybauskaite has no illusions regarding Russia, based on her country's experience under Soviet occupation after WWII, and the most recent Russian generated uproar in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Photo from www.15min.lt

Another article notes the Presidential election came as Russia's annexation of Ukraine's former Crimean peninsula and "sabre rattling in the neighbouring Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have sparked deep seated fears in Lithuania .... Grybauskaite first urged and then welcomed the arrival of American troops last month as NATO stepped up its presence in the Baltic states, which spent five decades under Soviet occupation until 1991."

Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004 and thus has a much deeper security position than does Ukraine. She is referred to as the Iron Lady, similar to UK's Margaret Thatcher nickname in the 1980s. Though representing a small 3 million population entity, "iron" must necessarily be tempered.

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A small, but symbolic contingent of US troops arrived in Lithuania, shown here standing with a Lithuanian force. Photo from rt.com

Lots of change ...