Syria's Arab Spring swept aside as conflict degenerates into religious persecution and sectarian cleansing

The conflict in Syria is slowly being revealed in all its brutal complexity, certainly more than the hopeful narrative with which it was first framed. What much of the Western media first described optimistically as Syria's own "Arab Spring" - a rising up of a hopeful, youthful, moderately secular, democratic outpouring of Arab aspirations - has been overtaken, unfortunately by more splintered agendas and hardened factions.

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After the initial Arab Spring narrative that lasted through the first half of 2011, came a Free Syria Army template- a clean patriotic rebellion against an oppressive regime: an armed version of the Arab Spring youth - akin perhaps to the first versions of the Libyan rebels. Turkey early on called for its ally President al-Assad to concede some power through negotiations with the FSA movement regarding its legitimate demands. The UN's peace initiative, led by former UN Secretary Koki Annan also began under this narrative - maintaining the fiction that there two equal rational sides willing to negotiate. A familiar post cold war tension, however, forced its way into the conflict, with Russia and China supporting Syria, while much of the West via NATO supporting the aspirations of the rebels (similar to the story in Libya).

Earlier in the conflict, the UN appointed Kofi Annan to act as liaison between President Assad (shown here) and the opposition.

Any meaningful action by the UN was stymied by Russia. Here US President Obama confers with Russian President Putin.

Later in 2011, reporting acknowledged further complexity of the conflict by noting Assad's shadowy use of the Shabiha. This mafia-type armed militia supporting Assad began to do the dirtier work of executions and oppression that the regime did not want to be associated with. At the same time, mutterings about "foreign elements" being found or involved came more frequently from both Western intelligence and the Assad regime itself. Those fighters - hard core fighters from Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya, Yemen - were being drawn into conflict for ideological reasons. Elements of Al-qaeda were more consistently being mentioned. What wasn't clear was whether the FSA (Free Syria Army), itself a haphazard grouping of fighters opposed to Assad (never with a centralized command structure or even a political "head"), was allied with these foreign elements, or simply finding itself fighting longside others finding opportunities with an embattled government.

Additional layers of the conflict were added over time with discussions about tribal loyalties - the Assad leadership part of a small Alewite tribe - along with the sectarian Muslim divide between Shiites and Sunnis. The term "civil war" was increasingly used.

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In the Syrian town of Duoma, lives lost await burial.

In the spring of 2012, with the conflict now being more characterized as a civil war, geopolitical references were increasingly cited. Iran's "arc" of influence was somberly noted with the Iranian's President Ahmadinejad strongly supporting Assad, as was Lebanon's Hezbollah repeating Iran's position. Not surprisingly, both Iran and Hezbollah attempted to finger Israel as the fundamental enemy, though in truth, Sunni Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia were viewing the conflict as a counter against increasing Iranian influence. In this sense, the civil war between internal Syrian factions, was also a proxy war, fought locally, but in the background between Sunni and Shiite groupings, as well as Western vs post Cold-War belligerents.

Iran early on voiced support for President Assad, left, shown here hosting a visit by Iran's President Ahmadinejad

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Refugee camps have been erected, and refugees have flooded into Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan

By early summer this year, with Assad in trouble as evidenced by an assassination of several in his inner circle, both the US and Israel referenced their concern over Syria's apparent mammoth arsenal of chemical weapons. The concern was whether those armaments would be seized and distributed to "unknown" (Al-qaeda or other Islamic extremists) in an anarchy that was looking more and more likely. In early August, the UN initiative came to an end, finding itself lacking any relevance to the actual matters on the ground

Syrian jet fighters now regularly involved, in this case bombing rebel strongholds in Aleppo

And so now nearly 21 months into the conflict, we are seeing the final diverse elements of the country being drawn in to the messy civil war, or proxy war, or both. The BBC reports the more complex situation as one where all sorts of Syrian minority groups are being drawn in: various tribal and religious groupings - the Kurds, the previously mentioned Alewites, Christians, Salafists, and the Druze.

As the BBC describes, "The Druze, who make up 4% to 5% of the population, follow a monotheistic religion drawn on Ismailism, a branch of Shia Islam, and like Syria's Christians initially tried to avoid taking sides in the uprising." The article goes on to describe the latest tactic of the Assad regime, "Shabiha, a term used to describe pro-government thugs, started to get armed in the town [one town in Syria where Druze are in the majority], "The security people recruited all the convicted criminals in prison, released them under an amnesty and armed them under the pretext of protecting the area from armed Salafist gangs ..." The result has been indiscriminate attacks on any perceived group not supporting Assad.

A particularly horrific image of a small street pooled with blood

But in fact most of that recent BBC article tracked the increasingly desperate plight of Christians across Syria (about 10% of the population, surrounded by the larger Muslim majority of Shias and Sunnis). A Global Post story notes, "In interviews with more than a dozen Qseir residents, a Wall Street Journal reporter recently discovered a vicious cycle of murder and kidnap between Sunni and Christian families, triggered by claims that Christians were acting as regime spies. Almost all Qseir’s Christians have now fled, with many taking shelter in makeshift tents in the northern Bekaa valley."

Lebanon's border with Syria is increasingly militarized and violent

Religious entities - the Catholic Church for one - are much sharper in their concerns about the Christian communities as August 2012 unfolds. CATHOLIC NEWS OF THE WEEK in late August also focused on the town of Oseir .... The leader of the armed opposition (ostensibly the Free Syrian Army) gave an order in early August that Christians had to leave the town. "

People are split as to the reason for the order. While some say that the armed opposition leader is trying to protect them from further bloodshed, others claim that it is just one more example of focussed discrimination and repression against Christians.

A third opinion says that many Christians have openly expressed their loyalty to the state and for this reason the opposition is against them.

The Christian communities of Syria, ancient ones, are quickly being lost. It is a loss for Syria, as well as the whole array of beliefs and traditions contained in Christianity worldwide.

While many have fled, mostly to Damascus, the fate of the around 1,000 who elected to remain in their homes in defiance of the order is still unknown. Fides (the Catholic news agency) says that it has received reports saying that Islamic Salafist extremist groups are strong in the ranks of the opposition and they consider Christians to be infidels, so they confiscate their possessions and carry out executions of Christians."

Reports centering on Christian community persecution occuring under the cover of the larger conflict abound. As the Catholic story goes on, “Many Iraqi Christians fled to Syria after they became targets and their churches were burned. Now the same thing is happening in Syria, ... They are living in fear of what could happen to them and whether or not they are safe. Whole suburbs where Christians lived in Homs have been destroyed,” said Father Rahal Dergham, the chaplain to the Syrian and Iraqi Catholic communities in Sydney archdiocese, Australia.

“Priests have also been killed and others have been seriously wounded. In Homs, the church of Mar Elian is in ruins and Our Lady of Peace is occupied by rebels, and the Armenian Apostolic Church and its adjoining school has been seized and occupied as a base for the Syrian Liberation Army.” Father Dergham was born, raised and ordained a priest in Syria. Two of his brothers and some of his relatives still live in his hometown, midway between Homs and Hama. “In Homs and other cities, no Catholic or Christian who leaves their house is safe. In villages it is also difficult, with Christians, no matter where they live, given no protection against the violence by the government or anyone else,” he says."

So, the point of this sorry post is that within any conflict, middle ground is lost, people must choose sides or flee, and those who stay most often become more radicalized or hardened in their perspective and behavior. A tragedy for this country that is still grinding towards an uncertain conclusion.

16,000 and counting

It has been nearly four months since a post on Syria and its chaos (February 25, 2012). Unfortunately, nothing has changed for the better, but much for the worse.

A posting from a Syrian opposition communication blog created a graphic that compels us to update the sorrow and death toll there.

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Since February, a number of events or trends have emerged or become clearer ...

The UN Peace Plan

According to Wikipedia, "The Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria or the U.N.-Arab League peace envoy for Syria launched in February 2012, is considered the most serious international attempt to resolve the Syrian conflict in the Middle East diplomatically. The peace plan enforced a cease-fire to take place across Syria since April 10, 2012, though in reality the cease-fire was announced by the Syrian government on April 14. Following the Houla massacre and the consequent Free Syrian Army (FSA) ultimatum to the Syrian government, the cease fire practically collapsed towards the end of May 2012 ..."

So, this peace plan pushed by former UN General Secretary Kofi Annan ended predictably. While one would never dismiss an attempt or repeated attempts to find diplomatic solutions, there is a point at which one must consider this effort in particular, an exercise in futility. With Assad having little reason to think he needed to give up power, and with the opposition receiving little more than faint praise, nearly everyone expected that it would end in failure, though no one would say so. Thus, we were able to listen to the chief proponent Annan singularly providing a lone positive spin on talks, unable to admit any possibility of it not working in order to negate any charges of a self-fulfilling prophecy. (The plan was simply that Bashar al-Assad and the opposition would sit down rationally and negotiate peacefully, UN monitors would come in and monitor, and the conflict would wind down in orderly fashion ...)


UN envoy Kofi Annan, left, and Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President, right, "conferring" on the prospects for peace in Syria ...

As the string of public meetings between Annan and Assad ran its course (along with a charade of positive statements: "hope" seen, monitors to be deployed, etc.) the shabiha - Assad's shadowy militia/gang - orchestrated massacres, shooting families in their homes execution style in Houla a series of villages near the Syrian city of Homs, while Assad's formal forces with heavy weaponry shelled opposition neighborhoods indiscriminately in several cities.

Assad's friends: Iran and Hezbollah enthusiastically fund Syria's Assad in their attempt to build a crescent of power, while Russia honors weapons agreements without regard or sympathy to the use of those weapons against Syria's own people. Both China and Russia declare - continually - that what a sovereign nation does inside its own borders is no one else's business (and these two countries represent a pack of oppressive governments who don't want another instance of an outside force interfering in a sovereign nation's affairs).

Syrian opposition's quiet and timid allies:
Turkey is providing refugee camps and security to over 24,000 Syrians, including some rear base sanctuary for Syria's Free Army elements. But in the past two months, this nation, at one time speaking loudly against its former ally has been quiet. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf state nations are quietly funneling money to the opposition, though up to very recently, no heavier weapons than small arms have been in the Free Syrian Army's arsenal.

Syria's and the world's vulture - Al Qaeda:
Abu Musab Al Suri, one of Al Qaeda's foremost strategists, was recently released from an Aleppo prison, according to an article in the London-based newspaper Al Hayat.

"Mr Al Suri was reportedly captured by the US army in Pakistan several years ago and, oddly, handed over to the Syrian authorities. Now he is out there, but nobody knows where exactly in a very unstable Syria, the writer said. Soon after his release, two bomb attacks hit security buildings in the city of Aleppo, north-west of Syria. Sure enough, Al Qaeda's Iraq branch issued a statement endorsing "jihad in Syria," though not explicitly claiming responsibility for the attacks."

The handwringing, moralizing, declaration-heavy but procrastinating and cautious Western response:
The US and Europe find all sorts of reasons (at least on the surface) to stay out of this one - eerily citing a litany of reasons that also applied to some degree to Libya which did NOT prevent their open intervention.

So here is the status of Syria's woes 15 months later after it began. The only difference is the steady increase in deaths, displacement and the likelihood of a bitter civil war, which would be reported on daily. As we've learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a terrible cost in intervention. But as we've learned in Rwanda and Darfur, there is also a horrific cost of sitting on one's hands.

Going forward - a few new elements

A new face
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group outside Syria, last week chose Abdulbaset Sieda, a 56-year-old activist who has been living in Sweden for more than a decade, as their new face and perhaps leader. (One of the Western world's complaints is that they don't know who the Syrian opposition "really is," so now they have a person at least.)

Abdulbaset Sieda, the new face of a main Syrian opposition group. His Kurdish ethnicity raises interesting hackles and connections over in Iraq, as well as Turkey...

Time ticking on Turkey-US coordination of patience, patience, and more patience
From a Foreign Policy article, "Ankara and Washington both abhor the Syrian regime’s brutal crackdown on demonstrators. But according to some reports, Ankara is hosting the Syrian opposition and possibly even helping arm it.

In contrast, Obama’s cautious policy on Syria appears to be driven by a desire to avoid three things: the political unknown after Bashar al-Assad, war in an election year, and a new military campaign in a Muslim country.

[Turkey Prime Minister] Erdogan might find it increasingly difficult to tolerate Obama’s “wait-and-see” strategy. For the Turks, slaughter in Syria is not an overseas affair, but rather a tragedy close to home that they cannot ignore.

Turkey’s border with Syria spans 510 miles, crisscrossing ethnic groups and families. Some Turks have loved ones in Syria who are in harm’s way. These constituents demand that Erdogan do his utmost to stop the al-Assad regime from perpetrating its crimes.

And many Sunni Turks, including those in the Ankara government, cannot turn a blind eye to the crackdown because they see the violence as a horrifying case of persecution by the Alawites who run the country.

Such religious sensitivities will be heightened later this summer during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts in late July."

Will, in fact, the holy month of Ramadan (late July) change anything, or is it just another marker along the way?

Deathtoll in Syria mounts, words fly ...

One of the "horrors" of our modern accessibility to world events, is the excruciating minute by minute - it seems - witnessing of violence, and way too much time to ponder the mystifying selectivity of what is or is not covered by media, much less what is or is not addressed by the world.

Syria and its neighbors

Syria's daily reports of armed forces shelling and blasting civilian populations is both numbing and frustrating. In the eleven months since an "Arab spring" of sorts emerged in this country, the government of Bashar al-Assad has sought to crush opposition, first in a sort of "whack a mole" strategy, but increasingly with more deadly fire. The death toll in Syria is now over 5,000 (Saudi Arabia lists it as over 7,000), far past the trigger of 1,000 to 2,000 which moved the West to take on Libya's now-deceased Gadaffi.

A map of Syria, showing the major cities and where protests have centered. It is outdated in that deaths have now occurred about everywhere as well as what might be classified as major protests.

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Egyptian bloggers are paying attention as well. This from an Egyptian woman, with the dark brown representing blood where martyrs have died.

The framework and timeline of Syria's conflict seem clear enough:

In early 2011, Bashar al-Assad's regime, based from within its own minority Alewite tribe, was busy with its longstanding, business-as-usual hostile stance against Israel, while continuing its quiet domination of neighboring Lebanon through its proxy ally Hezbollah. With a certain amount of status in the Arab world (Syria was a founder of the Arab League), it maintained neighborly relations with Turkey to the north, Russia on the international power scene, and content within its informal regional alliance with its strong supporter Iran.

Bashar (center) with his buddies, the holocaust-denying Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (left), and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasralla.

Then came the Arab spring. Syria watched warily as the protests erupted in a handful of countries in the region (Yemen, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt), and brought about the downfall of leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. As the West intervened in Libya, Assad chose to deal harshly with its own set of protestors - hoping to "nip it in the bud," as we would say.

Bashar al-Assad has long carefully cultivated a modern Western image, buttressed by his young attractive wife, Asma. (Asma's dress of course would not be acceptable or comparable to his buddies' wives.)

By June, however, a new pattern was becoming clear. Protests were not dwindling, and each death of a protestor resulted in a funeral that fanned flames further. Each Friday's day of prayers resulted in a new wave of protests, and Assad was loosening his rules of engagement for his security forces, including the murkily-linked go-ahead given to the feared Shabiha - a militia of thugs who had long run protection rackets, weapons and drug-smuggling rings, and other criminal enterprises in cities along the Mediterranean. And in June for the first time, the Arab League formally expressed its disapproval of Syria's actions against its own people.

Today, after eight months of steadily escalating violence, Syria is isolated, saved on the international scene only by predictable self-serving votes in the UN by Russia and China, who wish to avoid any precedent for nations to intervene or condemn what is sacrosanct - how a government conducts its internal affairs. The Arab League has now taken a stand against the present regime of Syria, calling for it to step down, and the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly (The vote in the 193-member world body on the Arab-sponsored resolution was 137-12 with 17 abstentions) for a resolution backing an Arab League plan calling for the Syrian President to step down while strongly condemning human rights violations by his regime.

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Voting in the UN General Assembly condemning Syria for its repression. Let's be clear on who voted against the resolution, the language of which can be found at the UN website(www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2012/ga11207.doc.htm). The votes against were from Belarus, Bolivia, China, Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ecuador, Iran, Nicaragua, Russian Federation, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe

Turkey, Syria's neighbor to the north, is strengthened the guarding of its common border, providing refuge to those able to flee, and providing de facto protection to what some observers note are armed resisters. Jordan to the south is also now building refugee camps for those civilians fleeing Syrian violence.

Bashar al-Assad had at one time a 270,000 person security force, but according to Turkish intelligence, about 40,000 have deserted, and over 2500 soldiers have joined the opposition Free Syrian Army. The notorious Shabiha of June has become just one of many violent groups now tearing at what remains of the country's societal fabric.

The West, led by the US and the UK are becoming more free with undiplomatic language towards Syria and its UN supporters China and Russia. The latest was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's use of the word "despicable" when it came to these two countries votes in support of Syria. Syria outraged the West again this past few days when it deliberately shelled a makeshift press center, killing two well respected journalists.

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Marie Colvin was one of two journalists killed in what is described as deliberate targeting by Syrian forces. Colvin lost an eye while reporting on the civil war in Sri Lanka back in 2001. With due respect, the other journalist killed was a younger man, French photographer Remi Ochlik.

But words are just that. And the conflict and death toll could get much worse, so the average westerner at least, will likely be bombarded with random images and stories on a daily basis for the foreseeable future.

It is a sobering statistic to note that in the Libyan spring, which morphed into a western intervention, that in just six months, at least 30,000 people were killed and 50,000 wounded. In September, 2011, Naji Barakat, Libya's interim health minister, offered this first detailed estimate of the high cost in lives of bringing down Gadaffi. Barakat said at the time he expected the final figure for dead and wounded to be higher than his current estimate. But the world has since moved on - by and large deeming the intervention a success, the "smart way" to win a war - and more than a casual search on the internet unearths no further updates on casualties after the September assessment.

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This neighborhood apartment complex in the city of Homs, pocked by Syrian shells and bullets.

Syria continues to sink, Western media distracted

Unfortunately, it seems the Western media has slipped into a routine concerning the chaotic and violent stalemate in Syria. At least in the US, we are likely to read or hear (or be fed) the "implications" of a 30 vote swing in the Iowa caucus and what it might mean for the GOP, or the allegations of an "open marriage" request by another GOP candidate as he battles for votes in the religiously conservative state of South Carolina, than of Syria.

In Syria, Bashir Assad's regime fights on, perhaps even emboldened by the apparent declining pressure and coverage by the Western press. And it is not the Western press or governments alone. The UN blandly tracks and reports that perhaps 5,000 citizens have died since the uprising. The Arab League, which had sent an observer mission to the country, is now facing a report due Saturday on the observers findings, and the league seems particularly unexcited about further moves than perhaps a 1 month extension of the "observation." As the BBC notes, "the mandate of the Arab League observer mission in Syria is due to expire, a month after it arrived to verify the implementation of a peace initiative. The head of the mission is finalizing a report on the ongoing violence, which will be discussed at a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers on Saturday."

Contrast the rhetoric and actions of Western nations, the UN, and the Arab League concerning Libya, with how they address Syria. There are major differences of course. Libya's Gaddafi had long been a loner when it came to support within the Arab League, as well as many international odious actions which isolated the regime. Libya is somewhat geographically isolated among a tier of north African Arab nations while Syria is embedded in close proximity to the Arab-Israeli powder-keg, as well as near the oil rich Persian Gulf. Iran had little at stake in Libya, but is deeply involved with both Lebanon and Syria. Libya was a small country of 6 million, Syria is 20 million. And then there is oil ... Libya has a lot, Syria has little.

Syria's borders - the most problematic is the one with Lebanon where arms are being smuggled into the country for the opposition, even though the Lebanese government is dominated by Iranian and Syrian leaning supporters.

All this to note that because there is little enthusiasm for dealing with Syria, observers are fearing that the failure to budge the entrenched Assad regime is increasing the chances for a widespread civil war.

An Australian newspaper report noted that "Lebanese black market arms dealers are struggling to cope with a soaring demand for weapons and ammunition from Syria, where a ten-month uprising is steadily evolving into an armed confrontation. The failure so far of peaceful protests to dislodge the regime of President Assad and international hesitancy to intervene in Syria ... has encouraged the emergence of armed rebel groups who are fighting back against security forces."

Captured weapons being smuggled into Syria from Lebanon are shown here to the press.

The article goes on, "The scale of the violence, the durability of the regime and the reluctance of the international community to intervene directly have persuaded many Syrian activists that peaceful protests have run their course and that armed resistance is the only alternative. "We don't need people. We have the people. We need weapons and ammunition. If we had that, I can assure you that Assad will be finished very quickly," said Ahmad, an activist in hiding in Lebanon. He added that the Free Syrian Army was ready to recruit from the civilian population but could not do so until more armaments become available. "Either we wait for support from other countries or we will play for time and see how much we can steal from the regime," he said."

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Syria's strategy to intercept smuggled weapons is two fold. Syria is mining its border with Lebanon ... which portends poorly for citizens in the future...

Syria is also pressuring the Lebanese government, shown meeting here, to aggressively stop smuggling, which the government has announced it will do.

So, a sad and violent story continues to unfold far from the election frenzy in the US, and apparently no longer high on the agenda of the UN and the Arab League. The festering tragedy will continue ...

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The town of Zabadani, close to the Lebanese border is being fiercely contested by the Syrian armed forces and the Free Syrian army. The Free Syrian Army is still a lofty goal as it remains a loose knit grouping of armed opposition groups

Nakba Day and the "shabiha"

In the dangerous ideologically-convoluted world of the Middle East, a myriad of events and movements swirl on. Two splinters of action coincided on May 15. One was the remembrance by Palestinians and nearly all the Arab world of Nakba - the day of Catastrophe in 1948 when Israel formally declared its existence. On this most recent day of remembrance, unprecedented "people power" protests occurred along Israel's northern borders with two Arab neighbors. Thousands of Palestinians in Lebanon and Syria were given access to the Israeli border by their respective host governments, and unruly protests took place ending with 14 dead.

In Lebanon, thousands took a three hour bus ride from a major Palestinian refugee settlement to the border, where the Lebanese army attempted to control the crowds to prevent violence. Initial media reports were unsettled on where deaths occurred - some point to 10 deaths at the Lebanese border (4 elsewhere), and either attributed to Israeli Defense Forces (the IDF) or Lebanese forces. (Other initial reports place more of the deaths at the Syrian-Israeli Golan Heights site of protests.)

One confrontation took place in Southern Lebanon, along the UN patrolled border with Israel.

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Along the way to the Lebanese-Israeli border, water and food are handed out to protestors.

Individuals of all ages participated

The Lebanese army prevented most protestors from approaching the fence.

In Syria, large crowds of Palestinians (also living in marginal refugee settlements for the past 62 years) converged on the Golan Heights - something that in the past, the Syrian government did not allow. In this situation, the Syrians did not attempt to meaningfully control the crowds, with resulting violence and injuries. (Somewhat mysteriously, reports are that IDF soldiers were instructed that if need be, shoot at protesters legs, no lethal aiming. A hobson's choice for ground troops. Why were IDF officers taken by surprise or not better prepared with modern crowd control equipment.) Regardless of the IDF response, many observers concluded that Assad's government encouraged the incident to divert attention to their own internal repression of protesters. The US later delivered a note of rebuke to the Assad government for allowing this incident to occur.

A sorting out of the incidents is likely to take some time amid charges and counter-charges.

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Another Nakba Day protest occurred in the UN patrolled Golan Heights

Israeli soldiers eyeing an unprecedented number of Palestinians converging on the fenced border

Protestors climb the Israeli-Syrian border fence

The Western press has been quick to link these mass protests with what is also called the "Arab Spring." This movement (if one discounts the 2009 chaos in Iran when hundreds lost their lives protesting Ahmadinejad's governance) began 4 months ago in Tunisia, where a decades old government was toppled by common people seeking a new voice and democratic reforms. The movement swept into Egypt, topping Hosni Mubarak from power, then erupted in a number of other countries: Libya, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, Yemen, Gaza, Iran, and Syria. As it turns out, the movement has faltered, with especially bloody responses in Libya, Yemen, and Syria.

The second action of note also has to do with borders. While Syrian authorities allowed Palestinian access to the Israeli frontier, other Syrians were fleeing their country for the "relative" safety in Lebanon. In one report, following the pattern set in Daraa, Homs, and Latakia, tanks moved in to Talkalakh, a town of about 70,000 residents, leaving behind a scene of destruction and death. Residents interviewed by The Associated Press as they crossed into Lebanon said their town, which has held weekly anti-government rallies, came under attack by the army, security forces and shadowy, pro-regime gunmen known as "shabiha." In contrast to the Israeli predicament of holding back Palestinians crossing the frontier, there was no restraint by Assad's forces, with indiscriminate firing, corpses left on the street, and even fleeing civilians shot down.

Syrian citizens fleeing from their own country to avoid government bloodshed

Talkalakh, the latest Syrian town being demolished by Assad and his shabiha

So what do we have?

In Syria, the past few days have seen Palestinians given access to the Israeli border, while Syrians themselves are fleeing into Lebanon from internal repression!

The Arab uprisings - successful in Tunisia and Egypt - have undertaken a hopeful reconstituting of a more democratic governance. We can with good will wish the populations of these nations success after throwing off dictatorships. The verdict is still out as to what the new voice will sound like.

The odds of new Arab voices in Iran, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain have shrunk considerably, notwithstanding the selective support for one such overthrow of the suddenly odious Gadaffi.

We are learning that in nearly every Arab country experiencing protests, there are undercurrents of sectarian tensions. As in Iraq, where a Sunni minority governed a Shiite majority and a sizable third segment of Kurds, the Syrian leadership, ie. the Assad family, is from a decided minority tribe (the Alewite is a nominally Shiite offshoot) controlling a Sunni majority. It is reported that most of the shabiha are from the Alewite tribe... Bahrain's majority Shiite population is governed by a Sunni line of royalty.

Where sectarian tensions are not dominant, Islamist parties and other religious groupings strive with one another. In Gaza, Hamas is confronting Salafists, and in Egypt, Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood are jockeying for position between themselves and others, with more serious and violent clashes with a sizable Coptic Christian minority.

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Pro-Assad forces known as shabiha (circled), "assist" regular Syrian forces in rounding up protestors