Turkey's rulers seek a "pious generation" amidst a threatening region

Turkey continues to present a mosaic of contradictory policies and positions to the world as its June 7 parliamentary elections near. The elections will decide the makeup of the 550 members of the Grand National Assembly, and the elected members will form the 25th Parliament of Turkey.


Turkey has a population of nearly 75 million people, compared to Egypt's 82 million and Germany's 80 million. The country sits strategically between Europe and the Arab world, and it has a turbulent history with its neighbors. Graphic from thesmokingnun.wordpress.com

From wikipedia, we read, "The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will seek a fourth consecutive term in government. Its leader, Ahmet Davutoğlu, will seek a full term as Prime Minister of Turkey in his own right, having taken over from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August 2014. The AKP's goal is likely to be to win more than 330 seats in order to have the right to put constitutional changes to a referendum, or more ideally 367 seats to bypass a referendum and change the constitution directly within parliament."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, campaigning for his AKP party which is expected to gain a majority of seats in the June 7th election. Such a majority in turn would allow him to adjust the country's constitution to reflect his own vision of the nation and Turkey's leadership in the region. Photo from The Economist with the article here.

So what direction is Erdogan, with his party, wanting to take Turkey?

As a recent BBC article (found here) put it, "Under the 12-year rule of the Islamist-rooted AK Party, constitutionally-secular Turkey has fundamentally changed. There is now a push to raise a "pious generation"

The article continues, "The government has constantly stressed its vision of stay-at-home mothers, urging three children per family. Last year, the deputy prime minister told women not to laugh in public; the president recently insisted that men and women were "not made equal".

And from the Economist article noted above, "seen against the background of his recent behaviour, Mr Erdogan’s plans for a strong presidency are troubling. He has dismantled checks on his power. His approach is majoritarian and divisive: so long as his party wins elections, it can trample any critics. Critical newspaper groups have been subjected to capricious tax fines. Columnists have been fired. Turkey had more journalists in jail than any other country until the middle of last year, when a clutch of 40 were let out. Reporters Without Borders, a Paris-based group, ranks it 149th of 180 countries for press freedom, above Russia but below Venezuela.

The authorities have often tried to close off access to critical websites and social media. In the second half of 2014, Turkey filed 477 requests to Twitter to remove content, five times more than any other country. And since Mr Erdogan became president, 105 people have been indicted for insulting the head of state.

Attacks on the media and a harsh crackdown on the protests in Gezi Park in Istanbul two years ago deepened a rift with the supporters of Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim preacher. The Gulenists, formerly Mr Erdogan’s allies against the army and the secular establishment, have now become enemies. The battle with them intensified after tape recordings of AK officials taking bribes were leaked. Mr Erdogan promptly reassigned hundreds of policemen, prosecutors and judges who were looking into cases of alleged graft."


President Erdogan has raised the debate with Fethullah Gulen, a former imam, who is self-exiled in the U.S. Gulen, who has millions of Turkey supporters, "teaches an Anatolian version of Islam, deriving from Sunni Muslim scholar Said Nursî's teachings. Gülen has stated that he believes in science, interfaith dialogue among the People of the Book, and multi-party democracy. He has initiated such dialogue with the Vatican and some Jewish organizations" according to Wikipedia. Photo from The Guardian

Gülen is actively involved in the societal debate concerning the future of the Turkish state, and Islam in the modern world. He has been described in the English-language media as an imam "who promotes a tolerant Islam which emphasises altruism, hard work and education"

Turkey's contradictions and tensions abound.

Even as Erdogan states clearly where his citizens should head, there is increasing discord by a variety of minorities within Turkey itself. Izmir, Turkey's third largest city and on its westernmost coast, is home to the opposition CHP party, which is the party of modern Turkey's founding father, Kemal Ataturk. The party is adamantly secular, strongly pro-women's rights, and nervous about the AKP's push to Islamicize the population. It made recent news by holding women bicycle rallies to offer a different vision for women rather than accepting a subservient Islamic role.


Izmir women on bicyles - a threat to Erdogan's pious generation? Photo from the BBC


Not to be outdone, President Erdogan also rode a bicycle with a few of his friends and bodyguards during a recent 51st Presidential tour. Photo from http://www.demotix.com

At that same time, it is unclear as to how Erdogan's party will interact with its restive Kurdish population in the east of the country. Most readers will remember the outrage in Turkey over Erdogan's passiveness as Kurds in Kobane were under siege by ISIS. His inaction over Kobane undermined his bright spot over the past decade in attempting to better integrate Turkish Kurds into the country as a whole. The still potent separatist Kurdish PKK remains firmly secular with both men and women serving equally in its ranks, and is unlikely to line up behind Erdogan's piety.

Regarding Turkey's neighbors in an increasingly broken region of the world, Erdogan continues to confound his allies and potential partners.

Erdogan has become hostile towards Israel, a recent ally, while savagely opposing Syria's Assad. Yet while Turkey spends 2.4 % of its gross national product - about $18 billion - on its military, a number that puts it among the countries that spend the most on their militaries (and shames most European countries who have let themselves grow woefully weak in their ability to meaningfully confront Russia's aggressiveness in Ukraine and the Baltic nations), the country is aloof in participating in a Sunni-led alliance against the Syrian leader.


The Turkey-Syria Akcakale border in southern Sanliurfa province. One of many flashpoints that face Turkey as the Syrian civil war lumbers tragically towards a somber conclusion. Photo from Australian Broadcasting Company

Erdogan was borderline hysterical with indignation at the recent movement - from the UN to western media - to accept the definition of genocide by Turkey 100 years ago towards Armenians, leaving many would-be allies unsure of the nation's ability to confront its own history.

Time will tell through the rest of 2015 where Turkey heads, there are the elections in just less than a week, a possible end game in Syria between Hezbollah and Assad vs ISIS and other rebel groups, a restive Kurd population with new discomforts with Erdogan and a long affinity with the Kurds of Iraq. Whither Erdogan's hope for his pious generation.

Debacle in Syria - a presidential election amid gas attacks

Now overshadowed by the West-Russia confrontation in Ukraine, there is apparent growing consensus that Syrian President "Bashar al-Assad and his leadership are there to stay" as a new BBC article puts it.

The Syrian opposition, early dominated by a young demographic wishing for an "Arab Spring" in their own land, has morphed through various phases - from a militarized but responsible opposition that was essentially starved out by possible Western aid, to the current splintered, radicalized, rebels, dominated by hateful Islamic extremists of various sorts, each in turn supported by regional powers with their own agendas.

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2009 marches for better Syrian governance were, in hindsight, impossibly naive and optimistic. Photo from ctv.news

Syria's Assad was bolstered early on by steady, robust Russian military and non military aid, as well as forceful intervention by Iran's Hezbollah, coming from Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah may have their own agendas, ie creating an arc of influence from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea, but in the process, found supporting Assad was part of that calculation.

The regional actors: former Iran President Ahmadinejad, beleaguered Syrian President Assad, and Islamic leader of Hezbollah, Nassrallah. The fourth influential supporter, Russia's President Putin, is busy elsewhere ... Photo from www.ipsnews.net

Assad's use of chemical weapons in the summer of 2013 was a horrific act and political miscalculation that almost, almost, resulted in a significant Western intervention. But diplomacy "won" the day, resulting in an agreement to remove the chemical weapons arsenal from Syria.

From marches asking for reform, to today's ghostly ruins and chemical weapon use against its own people, Syria's Assad and his allies leave this legacy. Photo from www.popularresistance.org

Now, nearly 9 months on, 80-90% of the chemical percursors have been removed, leaving Assad apparently free for the occasional use of basic chlorine gas attacks. Chlorine is an element not under WMD classification, so any negotiations to prevent its use for this horrific specific purpose will be safely stretched out over months, if not years, if at all.

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Syrian children caught up in the latest gas attack by their government. Okay, to use moderate and enlightened diplomacy-speak, Teatree will insert "allegedly" into the picture caption. Photo from www.therepublic.com

A multi-year effort to bring a negotiated end to the conflict, led by the US, and artfully opposed by Russia (with Iran and Hezbollah in quiet agreement), has effectively petered out due to the new Russian incursion into Ukraine, where once again the US believes its own negotiating prowess (with virtually no track record to support such faith) will win the day.

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U.S. President Obama, symbolically just barely relevant to the occasion as illustrated in this photo, has also been left sputtering over Russia's military move into the Crimean peninsula (followed by a quick referendum that formalized the takeover), "That is not how-- international-- law and international norms are observed in the 21st century." Photo from offshorebalancer.wordpress.com

So, on we go to a Syrian Presidential election set for June. As the BBC article puts it, "The pressures on Mr Assad are now so light that he is preparing to have himself re-elected for another full seven-year term, rather than opting for a compromise two-year extension, an idea kicked around a few months ago when diplomacy was active."

Taken in March 2014, from Assad's own facebook page. Assad, his wife, and various synchophants ... Photo and description from gulfnews.com

Want to bet on who will win?

Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey feeling Syria's civil war

The Syrian civil war is intermittently spilling over into its neighbors: Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. Of these three, Lebanon has been the most closely tied to the Assad regime in Syria, and it is no surprise that this small country is the most vulnerable to serious unraveling.

Syria and its four neighbors - Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq

The civil war itself in Syria has been well covered by journalists, and in this blog. The death toll is now estimated from 28 to 45,000, with the highest being reported by the Syrian Free Army (SFA). By October 2012, the FSA estimates another 28,000 people are "missing," as in taken by government security forces into custody. It goes without saying that the numbers of wounded and injured are considerably higher - hospitals and medical personnel are overwhelmed by the carnage.

As always, children are the most vulnerable in a war setting, and humanitarian efforts are always inadequate

The UN estimates another 1.2 million Syrians have been internally displaced within the country, and hundreds of thousands have fled across the border, principally to Turkey, next to Jordan, with smaller percentages into Iraq and Lebanon. The infrastructure of the country is further degraded daily as Syrian government forces are now routinely using air power in bombing and strafing opposition concentrations.

Syrian jet launches missile

The country's infrastructure crumbles daily

The most immediate impact on Syria's neighbors are from civilians fleeing the conflict. Refugee camps are being erected in Turkey primarily, Jordan second, while Iraq's desert border is less hospitable both in terms of access by most of the Syrian population, and lack of infrastructure in Iraq for this relief work.

Refugee camp being set up in Turkey.


Lebanon

Lebanon is a special case. It is in a fragile state politically, and a car bomb last week killed a senior intelligence official who was against Syria's Bashar al-Assad. The killing emphasized the presence and reach of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who strongly supports Assad, as does Iran. Because of the strategic dynamics of Iran and Hezbollah supporting Assad, the "arc" of belligerency in the region, Lebanon is especially challenged to remain independent and able to defend its borders.

Lebanon's capital, Beirut, is close to Syria's capital Damascus, and both are close to the borders with Israel

Masked gunmen from the al-Muqdad clan gather at the al-Muqdad family association’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut. As always, clan and tribal loyalties grow important in a region of tension, as middle or neutral ground erodes as an option for most civilians.

Lebanon has vast refugee camps from 1948 that have grown into permanent towns. Residents of this camp are Palestinians who fled the war of Arab nations against Israel when that country fought for its sovereignty. From the camps derives much of the manpower and ideology of Hezbollah.

Much of southern Lebanon is a security zone butting up against Israel - here a protest crowd confronts a line of Israeli soldiers.

The Syrian civil war continues to threaten the whole region. It will become one of many festering issues for the next US President as that country's election nears.

16,000 and counting

It has been nearly four months since a post on Syria and its chaos (February 25, 2012). Unfortunately, nothing has changed for the better, but much for the worse.

A posting from a Syrian opposition communication blog created a graphic that compels us to update the sorrow and death toll there.

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Since February, a number of events or trends have emerged or become clearer ...

The UN Peace Plan

According to Wikipedia, "The Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria or the U.N.-Arab League peace envoy for Syria launched in February 2012, is considered the most serious international attempt to resolve the Syrian conflict in the Middle East diplomatically. The peace plan enforced a cease-fire to take place across Syria since April 10, 2012, though in reality the cease-fire was announced by the Syrian government on April 14. Following the Houla massacre and the consequent Free Syrian Army (FSA) ultimatum to the Syrian government, the cease fire practically collapsed towards the end of May 2012 ..."

So, this peace plan pushed by former UN General Secretary Kofi Annan ended predictably. While one would never dismiss an attempt or repeated attempts to find diplomatic solutions, there is a point at which one must consider this effort in particular, an exercise in futility. With Assad having little reason to think he needed to give up power, and with the opposition receiving little more than faint praise, nearly everyone expected that it would end in failure, though no one would say so. Thus, we were able to listen to the chief proponent Annan singularly providing a lone positive spin on talks, unable to admit any possibility of it not working in order to negate any charges of a self-fulfilling prophecy. (The plan was simply that Bashar al-Assad and the opposition would sit down rationally and negotiate peacefully, UN monitors would come in and monitor, and the conflict would wind down in orderly fashion ...)


UN envoy Kofi Annan, left, and Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President, right, "conferring" on the prospects for peace in Syria ...

As the string of public meetings between Annan and Assad ran its course (along with a charade of positive statements: "hope" seen, monitors to be deployed, etc.) the shabiha - Assad's shadowy militia/gang - orchestrated massacres, shooting families in their homes execution style in Houla a series of villages near the Syrian city of Homs, while Assad's formal forces with heavy weaponry shelled opposition neighborhoods indiscriminately in several cities.

Assad's friends: Iran and Hezbollah enthusiastically fund Syria's Assad in their attempt to build a crescent of power, while Russia honors weapons agreements without regard or sympathy to the use of those weapons against Syria's own people. Both China and Russia declare - continually - that what a sovereign nation does inside its own borders is no one else's business (and these two countries represent a pack of oppressive governments who don't want another instance of an outside force interfering in a sovereign nation's affairs).

Syrian opposition's quiet and timid allies:
Turkey is providing refugee camps and security to over 24,000 Syrians, including some rear base sanctuary for Syria's Free Army elements. But in the past two months, this nation, at one time speaking loudly against its former ally has been quiet. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf state nations are quietly funneling money to the opposition, though up to very recently, no heavier weapons than small arms have been in the Free Syrian Army's arsenal.

Syria's and the world's vulture - Al Qaeda:
Abu Musab Al Suri, one of Al Qaeda's foremost strategists, was recently released from an Aleppo prison, according to an article in the London-based newspaper Al Hayat.

"Mr Al Suri was reportedly captured by the US army in Pakistan several years ago and, oddly, handed over to the Syrian authorities. Now he is out there, but nobody knows where exactly in a very unstable Syria, the writer said. Soon after his release, two bomb attacks hit security buildings in the city of Aleppo, north-west of Syria. Sure enough, Al Qaeda's Iraq branch issued a statement endorsing "jihad in Syria," though not explicitly claiming responsibility for the attacks."

The handwringing, moralizing, declaration-heavy but procrastinating and cautious Western response:
The US and Europe find all sorts of reasons (at least on the surface) to stay out of this one - eerily citing a litany of reasons that also applied to some degree to Libya which did NOT prevent their open intervention.

So here is the status of Syria's woes 15 months later after it began. The only difference is the steady increase in deaths, displacement and the likelihood of a bitter civil war, which would be reported on daily. As we've learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a terrible cost in intervention. But as we've learned in Rwanda and Darfur, there is also a horrific cost of sitting on one's hands.

Going forward - a few new elements

A new face
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group outside Syria, last week chose Abdulbaset Sieda, a 56-year-old activist who has been living in Sweden for more than a decade, as their new face and perhaps leader. (One of the Western world's complaints is that they don't know who the Syrian opposition "really is," so now they have a person at least.)

Abdulbaset Sieda, the new face of a main Syrian opposition group. His Kurdish ethnicity raises interesting hackles and connections over in Iraq, as well as Turkey...

Time ticking on Turkey-US coordination of patience, patience, and more patience
From a Foreign Policy article, "Ankara and Washington both abhor the Syrian regime’s brutal crackdown on demonstrators. But according to some reports, Ankara is hosting the Syrian opposition and possibly even helping arm it.

In contrast, Obama’s cautious policy on Syria appears to be driven by a desire to avoid three things: the political unknown after Bashar al-Assad, war in an election year, and a new military campaign in a Muslim country.

[Turkey Prime Minister] Erdogan might find it increasingly difficult to tolerate Obama’s “wait-and-see” strategy. For the Turks, slaughter in Syria is not an overseas affair, but rather a tragedy close to home that they cannot ignore.

Turkey’s border with Syria spans 510 miles, crisscrossing ethnic groups and families. Some Turks have loved ones in Syria who are in harm’s way. These constituents demand that Erdogan do his utmost to stop the al-Assad regime from perpetrating its crimes.

And many Sunni Turks, including those in the Ankara government, cannot turn a blind eye to the crackdown because they see the violence as a horrifying case of persecution by the Alawites who run the country.

Such religious sensitivities will be heightened later this summer during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts in late July."

Will, in fact, the holy month of Ramadan (late July) change anything, or is it just another marker along the way?

Deathtoll in Syria mounts, words fly ...

One of the "horrors" of our modern accessibility to world events, is the excruciating minute by minute - it seems - witnessing of violence, and way too much time to ponder the mystifying selectivity of what is or is not covered by media, much less what is or is not addressed by the world.

Syria and its neighbors

Syria's daily reports of armed forces shelling and blasting civilian populations is both numbing and frustrating. In the eleven months since an "Arab spring" of sorts emerged in this country, the government of Bashar al-Assad has sought to crush opposition, first in a sort of "whack a mole" strategy, but increasingly with more deadly fire. The death toll in Syria is now over 5,000 (Saudi Arabia lists it as over 7,000), far past the trigger of 1,000 to 2,000 which moved the West to take on Libya's now-deceased Gadaffi.

A map of Syria, showing the major cities and where protests have centered. It is outdated in that deaths have now occurred about everywhere as well as what might be classified as major protests.

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Egyptian bloggers are paying attention as well. This from an Egyptian woman, with the dark brown representing blood where martyrs have died.

The framework and timeline of Syria's conflict seem clear enough:

In early 2011, Bashar al-Assad's regime, based from within its own minority Alewite tribe, was busy with its longstanding, business-as-usual hostile stance against Israel, while continuing its quiet domination of neighboring Lebanon through its proxy ally Hezbollah. With a certain amount of status in the Arab world (Syria was a founder of the Arab League), it maintained neighborly relations with Turkey to the north, Russia on the international power scene, and content within its informal regional alliance with its strong supporter Iran.

Bashar (center) with his buddies, the holocaust-denying Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (left), and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasralla.

Then came the Arab spring. Syria watched warily as the protests erupted in a handful of countries in the region (Yemen, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt), and brought about the downfall of leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. As the West intervened in Libya, Assad chose to deal harshly with its own set of protestors - hoping to "nip it in the bud," as we would say.

Bashar al-Assad has long carefully cultivated a modern Western image, buttressed by his young attractive wife, Asma. (Asma's dress of course would not be acceptable or comparable to his buddies' wives.)

By June, however, a new pattern was becoming clear. Protests were not dwindling, and each death of a protestor resulted in a funeral that fanned flames further. Each Friday's day of prayers resulted in a new wave of protests, and Assad was loosening his rules of engagement for his security forces, including the murkily-linked go-ahead given to the feared Shabiha - a militia of thugs who had long run protection rackets, weapons and drug-smuggling rings, and other criminal enterprises in cities along the Mediterranean. And in June for the first time, the Arab League formally expressed its disapproval of Syria's actions against its own people.

Today, after eight months of steadily escalating violence, Syria is isolated, saved on the international scene only by predictable self-serving votes in the UN by Russia and China, who wish to avoid any precedent for nations to intervene or condemn what is sacrosanct - how a government conducts its internal affairs. The Arab League has now taken a stand against the present regime of Syria, calling for it to step down, and the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly (The vote in the 193-member world body on the Arab-sponsored resolution was 137-12 with 17 abstentions) for a resolution backing an Arab League plan calling for the Syrian President to step down while strongly condemning human rights violations by his regime.

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Voting in the UN General Assembly condemning Syria for its repression. Let's be clear on who voted against the resolution, the language of which can be found at the UN website(www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2012/ga11207.doc.htm). The votes against were from Belarus, Bolivia, China, Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ecuador, Iran, Nicaragua, Russian Federation, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe

Turkey, Syria's neighbor to the north, is strengthened the guarding of its common border, providing refuge to those able to flee, and providing de facto protection to what some observers note are armed resisters. Jordan to the south is also now building refugee camps for those civilians fleeing Syrian violence.

Bashar al-Assad had at one time a 270,000 person security force, but according to Turkish intelligence, about 40,000 have deserted, and over 2500 soldiers have joined the opposition Free Syrian Army. The notorious Shabiha of June has become just one of many violent groups now tearing at what remains of the country's societal fabric.

The West, led by the US and the UK are becoming more free with undiplomatic language towards Syria and its UN supporters China and Russia. The latest was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's use of the word "despicable" when it came to these two countries votes in support of Syria. Syria outraged the West again this past few days when it deliberately shelled a makeshift press center, killing two well respected journalists.

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Marie Colvin was one of two journalists killed in what is described as deliberate targeting by Syrian forces. Colvin lost an eye while reporting on the civil war in Sri Lanka back in 2001. With due respect, the other journalist killed was a younger man, French photographer Remi Ochlik.

But words are just that. And the conflict and death toll could get much worse, so the average westerner at least, will likely be bombarded with random images and stories on a daily basis for the foreseeable future.

It is a sobering statistic to note that in the Libyan spring, which morphed into a western intervention, that in just six months, at least 30,000 people were killed and 50,000 wounded. In September, 2011, Naji Barakat, Libya's interim health minister, offered this first detailed estimate of the high cost in lives of bringing down Gadaffi. Barakat said at the time he expected the final figure for dead and wounded to be higher than his current estimate. But the world has since moved on - by and large deeming the intervention a success, the "smart way" to win a war - and more than a casual search on the internet unearths no further updates on casualties after the September assessment.

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This neighborhood apartment complex in the city of Homs, pocked by Syrian shells and bullets.

Syria continues to sink, Western media distracted

Unfortunately, it seems the Western media has slipped into a routine concerning the chaotic and violent stalemate in Syria. At least in the US, we are likely to read or hear (or be fed) the "implications" of a 30 vote swing in the Iowa caucus and what it might mean for the GOP, or the allegations of an "open marriage" request by another GOP candidate as he battles for votes in the religiously conservative state of South Carolina, than of Syria.

In Syria, Bashir Assad's regime fights on, perhaps even emboldened by the apparent declining pressure and coverage by the Western press. And it is not the Western press or governments alone. The UN blandly tracks and reports that perhaps 5,000 citizens have died since the uprising. The Arab League, which had sent an observer mission to the country, is now facing a report due Saturday on the observers findings, and the league seems particularly unexcited about further moves than perhaps a 1 month extension of the "observation." As the BBC notes, "the mandate of the Arab League observer mission in Syria is due to expire, a month after it arrived to verify the implementation of a peace initiative. The head of the mission is finalizing a report on the ongoing violence, which will be discussed at a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers on Saturday."

Contrast the rhetoric and actions of Western nations, the UN, and the Arab League concerning Libya, with how they address Syria. There are major differences of course. Libya's Gaddafi had long been a loner when it came to support within the Arab League, as well as many international odious actions which isolated the regime. Libya is somewhat geographically isolated among a tier of north African Arab nations while Syria is embedded in close proximity to the Arab-Israeli powder-keg, as well as near the oil rich Persian Gulf. Iran had little at stake in Libya, but is deeply involved with both Lebanon and Syria. Libya was a small country of 6 million, Syria is 20 million. And then there is oil ... Libya has a lot, Syria has little.

Syria's borders - the most problematic is the one with Lebanon where arms are being smuggled into the country for the opposition, even though the Lebanese government is dominated by Iranian and Syrian leaning supporters.

All this to note that because there is little enthusiasm for dealing with Syria, observers are fearing that the failure to budge the entrenched Assad regime is increasing the chances for a widespread civil war.

An Australian newspaper report noted that "Lebanese black market arms dealers are struggling to cope with a soaring demand for weapons and ammunition from Syria, where a ten-month uprising is steadily evolving into an armed confrontation. The failure so far of peaceful protests to dislodge the regime of President Assad and international hesitancy to intervene in Syria ... has encouraged the emergence of armed rebel groups who are fighting back against security forces."

Captured weapons being smuggled into Syria from Lebanon are shown here to the press.

The article goes on, "The scale of the violence, the durability of the regime and the reluctance of the international community to intervene directly have persuaded many Syrian activists that peaceful protests have run their course and that armed resistance is the only alternative. "We don't need people. We have the people. We need weapons and ammunition. If we had that, I can assure you that Assad will be finished very quickly," said Ahmad, an activist in hiding in Lebanon. He added that the Free Syrian Army was ready to recruit from the civilian population but could not do so until more armaments become available. "Either we wait for support from other countries or we will play for time and see how much we can steal from the regime," he said."

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Syria's strategy to intercept smuggled weapons is two fold. Syria is mining its border with Lebanon ... which portends poorly for citizens in the future...

Syria is also pressuring the Lebanese government, shown meeting here, to aggressively stop smuggling, which the government has announced it will do.

So, a sad and violent story continues to unfold far from the election frenzy in the US, and apparently no longer high on the agenda of the UN and the Arab League. The festering tragedy will continue ...

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The town of Zabadani, close to the Lebanese border is being fiercely contested by the Syrian armed forces and the Free Syrian army. The Free Syrian Army is still a lofty goal as it remains a loose knit grouping of armed opposition groups

Syrian government crushes Hama (again) as Ramadan begins

In a poignant statement of repression on the eve of Ramadan - the Muslim holy month - the Syrian government on Sunday swept into Hama, a major city of 800,000, killing dozens of protestors.

Hama, with a population of 800,000, was slow to join the protests at the beginning of the year, but has now taken on the dubious mantle of leadership in challenging Bashar Assad's regime.

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Massive demonstration on Friday (day of prayer), July 29, shows extent of Assad's problem.

From the BBC, "Activists say about 130 people died across the country on Sunday, making it one of the bloodiest days since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in mid-March. ... Hama still seems to be largely under the control of its own inhabitants rather than the government. ...Tanks and troops which had tried to take control of the city on Sunday, withdrew to the outskirts overnight but now seem to be pushing ahead again ..."

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Assad's tanks in Hama

Hama, of course, is the same city where in 1982, then-President Hafez al-Assad, father of today's Bashar Assad, crushed a different rebellion, killing some 30,000 citizens, members of the Muslim Brotherhood. There was no world reaction at that time, and there seems little once again.

Smoke rises from the city

There is the obligatory international condemnation to be sure, with Germany and Italy calling for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, and one is apparently scheduled for today. Previously, security council members such as Russia and China have opposed resolutions condemning Damascus. However, Russia today called for an end to "repressions" in Syria. "The use of force against both peaceful civilians and representatives of state structures is unacceptable and should be stopped immediately," the foreign ministry said in a statement. Analysts say it is Moscow's strongest criticism yet of President Assad.

Earlier, US President Barack Obama said he was "appalled" by the Syrian government's use of brutality. EU foreign policy chief urged the UN Security Council to take a "clear stand on the need to end the violence". Even Turkey, who has had to change its relationship with Syria the most over the past 6 months, is continuing to strengthen its criticism.

Nevertheless, it is hard to see how the current trajectory of world condemnation and Syria's continuing actions (aided and supported by Hezbollah in Lebanon and by Iran) will lead to a different outcome soon. Thousands of Syrian's are "missing" and various centers of opposition are filled with courageous yet fearful families and individuals.

The Iranian-Syrian-Lebanon arc

As Syrian violence enters its third month and headlines repeatedly track the government assault on its citizens, it is worthwhile to step back and see the larger connections in the region. Originally one of just many Arab governments confronted with protests for political reform in January this year, a more somber outcome for Syria than simple reform is starting to emerge.

Syrian refugee camps hastily erected in Turkey, now holding 9,000 people who have fled their own nation

The Tunisian and Egyptian protests followed by the toppling of its leaders were quickly dubbed "the Arab spring" by many in the West, hoping for similar democratic revolutions that swept across Eastern Europe in 1989-1990 and the eventual dissolution of the Soviet Union. (The term may actually refer to the “Prague Spring” of 1968 when Czechoslovakia enjoyed an 8-month liberalization of government during the Cold War..).

While laudable for a new vision, and reforms are certainly needed in the autocratic regimes throughout the Arab world, let's remember that the Czech leader Alexander Dubcek's thaw in governance was crushed by Soviet and Warsaw Pact tanks in '68.

The original 1968 Prague Spring comes to a sudden end

And now in Syria, its own tanks are sweeping through northern villages with special vengeance. New unrest is reported in towns to the east, and observers believe this is the most serious threat to the Assad family's power in 40 years. Even today, Friday the day of prayer, reports are coming in that once again, protesters are in the streets...

But the resources Syria (ie. Assad and his family) has at its disposal are far from merely its own. Reports are surfacing that the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon are assisting Assad's own minority Alewite tribe, and in turn both are being bolstered by Iranian resources. It is this "arc" of power that is emerging - taking advantage of protests meant for reform - to ferret out nests of resistance and building a stronger alliance than ever before.

At the two ends, Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah and Iran's Shiite regime have long had as one unifying goal, to cleanse the region of the "occupying force" Israel. Bashir Assad, nominally a Sunni, has come under such pressure that he has taken hold of allies wherever they could be found, and of course Syria too has long been a bitter enemy of Israel.

Note in this arc of Iran-Syria-Lebanon, that Iraq is a missing piece of the puzzle. The US and many elements in Iraq are well aware of the Iranian threat to the nation's new democracy

Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq, and his Mehdi army openly advocates for an anti-western Iranian-led alliance

Standing uneasily against this arc?

Turkey has done an abrupt about face regarding Syria. Eight months ago, its Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was calling Bashir Assad "a good friend of mine," and Turkey was building closer ties with its neighbor. However, in a recent statement regarding Syria and refugees fleeing to Turkey, Erdoğan called Syria's actions inhumane, saying the “savagery cannot be digested." He personally attacked Assad's younger brother, Maher Assad, who is leading a crack Syrian division in the brutal clampdown on the northwest town of Jisr al-Shughour.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan denouncing Syria's "savagery."

Turkey has long had a goal of membership in the European Union and is already a NATO member. Rebuffed for decades by a few EU members, it was casting for a more independent role, including distancing itself from Israel, and looking more to a position as a leading Middle East power. Now it is confronted with a tougher set of decisions. The first of these may be soon. Based on Turkey's previous support for a "freedom flotilla" attempting to deliver supplies to Gaza while confronting Israel, another such flotilla of ships to bring supplies to Gaza planned for this summer may be fraught with larger implications. In light of the trouble on Syria's border, Turkey may now have second thoughts, and just today, the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), the Turkish Islamic charity organization which had provided a ship during the last attempt, pulled out of the planned event. Was there "a word" quietly given by the Turkish government?

Another complication in the area is the longstanding Kurdish ethnic population, with sizable numbers in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. In Turkey's recent elections, soundly won by Erdoğan's party, the second largest winner was the strong showing by Kurdish delegates. A total of 36 candidates backed by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party won seats, a gain of 16 from the previous election. Among them was Leyla Zana, a former lawmaker who spent 10 years in prison on charges of links to Kurdish rebels that she always denied. In 1991, Zana also caused an uproar for speaking Kurdish while taking the oath of office, in defiance of rules against use of the language in official settings.

Leyla Zana was once jailed by Turkey's government, and is treated as a legend in the Southeast of the country. She will now be back in Turkey's parliament, pushing for further moderate and secular positions, as well as acceptance of her ethnic Kurds

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Kurds make up 20% of Turkey's population, 15-23% of Iraq, and 6-9% of both Iran and Syria

Lebanon's ominous turn

Lebanon's part in this emerging alliance was exposed when Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced a new cabinet after a five-month delay from the date of the country's most recent elections. This week he inflamed passions by announcing a new government heavily dominated by the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah and its allies. One newspaper account had analysts describing the new Cabinet as a relic from the past, when Syria thoroughly dominated politics in Lebanon, and said it bode ill for Lebanese democracy at a time of uprisings across the Arab world.

U.S. officials quickly warned Mr. Mikati that Lebanon may lose $100 million a year in military aid if its new government moves too far into the orbit of Syria and its primary strategic partner, Iran. Hezbollah's Al Manar television quoted Syrian President Bashar Assad as congratulating Lebanese President Michel Suleiman (whose post is largely ceremonial under Lebanon's political system). Opposition lawmaker Nadim Gemayel dismissed the government as "Hezbollah's and Syria's Cabinet," according to Lebanon's official National News Agency.

So, a stage is being set. Where "Arab Spring" toppled governments in Tunisia and Egypt, the new governments are yet to frame themselves. Libya is in a civil war with NATO having joined against Gadaffi; Yemen faces a power vacuum with its President Saleh in Saudi Arabia for treatment. His absence leaves government forces, tribal groups and Al-Qaeda all jostling for advantage. In Syria, a new alliance is being forged that distinctly does not look like a step forward.

Nakba Day and the "shabiha"

In the dangerous ideologically-convoluted world of the Middle East, a myriad of events and movements swirl on. Two splinters of action coincided on May 15. One was the remembrance by Palestinians and nearly all the Arab world of Nakba - the day of Catastrophe in 1948 when Israel formally declared its existence. On this most recent day of remembrance, unprecedented "people power" protests occurred along Israel's northern borders with two Arab neighbors. Thousands of Palestinians in Lebanon and Syria were given access to the Israeli border by their respective host governments, and unruly protests took place ending with 14 dead.

In Lebanon, thousands took a three hour bus ride from a major Palestinian refugee settlement to the border, where the Lebanese army attempted to control the crowds to prevent violence. Initial media reports were unsettled on where deaths occurred - some point to 10 deaths at the Lebanese border (4 elsewhere), and either attributed to Israeli Defense Forces (the IDF) or Lebanese forces. (Other initial reports place more of the deaths at the Syrian-Israeli Golan Heights site of protests.)

One confrontation took place in Southern Lebanon, along the UN patrolled border with Israel.

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Along the way to the Lebanese-Israeli border, water and food are handed out to protestors.

Individuals of all ages participated

The Lebanese army prevented most protestors from approaching the fence.

In Syria, large crowds of Palestinians (also living in marginal refugee settlements for the past 62 years) converged on the Golan Heights - something that in the past, the Syrian government did not allow. In this situation, the Syrians did not attempt to meaningfully control the crowds, with resulting violence and injuries. (Somewhat mysteriously, reports are that IDF soldiers were instructed that if need be, shoot at protesters legs, no lethal aiming. A hobson's choice for ground troops. Why were IDF officers taken by surprise or not better prepared with modern crowd control equipment.) Regardless of the IDF response, many observers concluded that Assad's government encouraged the incident to divert attention to their own internal repression of protesters. The US later delivered a note of rebuke to the Assad government for allowing this incident to occur.

A sorting out of the incidents is likely to take some time amid charges and counter-charges.

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Another Nakba Day protest occurred in the UN patrolled Golan Heights

Israeli soldiers eyeing an unprecedented number of Palestinians converging on the fenced border

Protestors climb the Israeli-Syrian border fence

The Western press has been quick to link these mass protests with what is also called the "Arab Spring." This movement (if one discounts the 2009 chaos in Iran when hundreds lost their lives protesting Ahmadinejad's governance) began 4 months ago in Tunisia, where a decades old government was toppled by common people seeking a new voice and democratic reforms. The movement swept into Egypt, topping Hosni Mubarak from power, then erupted in a number of other countries: Libya, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, Yemen, Gaza, Iran, and Syria. As it turns out, the movement has faltered, with especially bloody responses in Libya, Yemen, and Syria.

The second action of note also has to do with borders. While Syrian authorities allowed Palestinian access to the Israeli frontier, other Syrians were fleeing their country for the "relative" safety in Lebanon. In one report, following the pattern set in Daraa, Homs, and Latakia, tanks moved in to Talkalakh, a town of about 70,000 residents, leaving behind a scene of destruction and death. Residents interviewed by The Associated Press as they crossed into Lebanon said their town, which has held weekly anti-government rallies, came under attack by the army, security forces and shadowy, pro-regime gunmen known as "shabiha." In contrast to the Israeli predicament of holding back Palestinians crossing the frontier, there was no restraint by Assad's forces, with indiscriminate firing, corpses left on the street, and even fleeing civilians shot down.

Syrian citizens fleeing from their own country to avoid government bloodshed

Talkalakh, the latest Syrian town being demolished by Assad and his shabiha

So what do we have?

In Syria, the past few days have seen Palestinians given access to the Israeli border, while Syrians themselves are fleeing into Lebanon from internal repression!

The Arab uprisings - successful in Tunisia and Egypt - have undertaken a hopeful reconstituting of a more democratic governance. We can with good will wish the populations of these nations success after throwing off dictatorships. The verdict is still out as to what the new voice will sound like.

The odds of new Arab voices in Iran, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain have shrunk considerably, notwithstanding the selective support for one such overthrow of the suddenly odious Gadaffi.

We are learning that in nearly every Arab country experiencing protests, there are undercurrents of sectarian tensions. As in Iraq, where a Sunni minority governed a Shiite majority and a sizable third segment of Kurds, the Syrian leadership, ie. the Assad family, is from a decided minority tribe (the Alewite is a nominally Shiite offshoot) controlling a Sunni majority. It is reported that most of the shabiha are from the Alewite tribe... Bahrain's majority Shiite population is governed by a Sunni line of royalty.

Where sectarian tensions are not dominant, Islamist parties and other religious groupings strive with one another. In Gaza, Hamas is confronting Salafists, and in Egypt, Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood are jockeying for position between themselves and others, with more serious and violent clashes with a sizable Coptic Christian minority.

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Pro-Assad forces known as shabiha (circled), "assist" regular Syrian forces in rounding up protestors