Hezbollah commits troops, Assad position firms

The Syrian civil war spread this past week with the public introduction of several thousand hardened Hezbollah fighters into the city of Qusayr in western Syria. The fighting in this city - which is by all reports a strategic junction for both sides - has left the infrastructure in ruins, the population cowered or scattered, and has sown the seeds for wider involvement.

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Qusayr, Syria

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The city is important to the Syrian rebels as it is a weapons route into Syria from their Lebanese supporters. At the same time, the city's location is important to President Assad's forces, as it sits on the way from the capital Damascus to his Alewite tribal stronghold in Western Syria, as well as to Syria's two Mediterranean ports.

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Syria's strongman, Bashar al-Assad, is a member of the Alewite tribe, an offshoot of the larger Shiite religious schism. His ethnic group provides core loyalty within the armed forces.

Describing the daily blow-by-blows of the path of this conflict seems pointless (and dark), however, the position of Syrian President Assad had apparently weakened so much in the past month that Hezbollah (with the blessing of its Iranian sugar daddy) felt it necessary to intervene directly and openly.

Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, openly vows victory in Syria...

... so now the coffins and burials back in Lebanon of Hezbollah fighters killed in Syrian fighting will add fuel to the fires

Summary -

* Injection of thousands of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon into the Syrian civil war. In retaliation, rockets are already being fired back into Lebanon, and the pot is being stirred by Sunni groups in Lebanon that support the Syrian rebels.

* Assad's position, bolstered by the open support of Hezbollah, has been strengthened at least temporarily, as Syrian rebels have begun reinforcing their own force levels in the Qusayr fight. At the same time, there are increasing reports of Assad's more than incidental use of chemical weapons. Over a month ago, use of chemical weapons was a red line that would prompt a "recalculation" of the US position. Apparently, isolated usage was tested by Assad, no one chose to officially take note, so his usage may be growing. Along with up-tempo Russian weapon shipments, these three factors have added to Assad's current uptick in advantage. ("Syria: French journalists catalogue extensive use of chemical weapons" May 27, UK Telegraph)

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This map provided by the BBC shows the extent of control by Syrian anti-Assad forces, and those of President Assad.

* Meanwhile, Sunni extremist groups in Iraq are roiling that country. The UN reports that over 1000 mainly civilians died in May alone from car bombs, etc. There are reports that al Qaeda in Iraq and in Syria have strengthened their own connections and may be trying to carve out their own new territory in power vacuums brought about by the Syrian conflict.

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Cleanup of a car bomb in Iraq. Fears are growing that government efforts to contain the most recent surge in sectarian violence are not sufficient

* As mentioned, Russia is declaring further shipments of advanced weaponry to Syria's Assad, even as the EU has ended its arms embargo to Syria, opening the possibility of more weapons headed to the Syrian rebels (already being armed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States).

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Weapons flow from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States into Turkey from where they are smuggled south into Syria. Iran supplies aid directly to Syria's Assad, crossing Iraqi airspace. The US wants Iraq to stop Iranian flights over the country, but Iraq's Shiite government does not consider it a high priority.

* Let's not forget Turkey. Last week, according to a Washington Times report, "Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said ... that Hezbollah, or “Party of God” in Arabic, should change its name to “Party of Satan,” blaming the terrorist organization for killing thousands of civilians in Syria. ... Bozdag made the remarks on Sunday at an international symposium in Ankara, titled “Problems of the Islamic World and Solutions,” Today’s Zaman reports." So much for the carefully measured words of diplomacy (while on the Syrian street, "Hezbshaytaan" is becoming part of the mainstream Arab Sunni lexicon - notes Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence blog). 

The conflict is spreading, not being contained. And Israel is watching closely.

End game approaches in Syria?

While the Western world's attention (and mine) is focused on the Boston Marathon bombing early this week (of which the Chechnya angle will be looked at in my next post), more ominous developments occurred regarding the ongoing Syrian civil war.

Update
The UN estimates the death toll now stands at 70,000 as of late February and accelerating, with over 10,000 killed in that first 7 week period of this year alone. From a recent February Reuters article, "Syria is self-destructing," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday. "After nearly two years, we no longer count days in hours, but in bodies. Another day, another 100, 200, 300 dead." "Fighting rages. Sectarian hatred is on the rise. The catalogue of war crimes is mounting," he said. "The Security Council must no longer stand on the sidelines, deadlocked, silently witnessing the slaughter."

Aleppo, Syria's 2nd largest city, is slowly being pummeled into a vast wasteland of concrete and rebar.

"The lack of consensus on Syria and the resulting inaction has been disastrous and civilians on all sides have paid the price," said [Navi Pillay, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights]. "We will be judged against the tragedy that has unfolded before our eyes." World powers are divided on how to stop the escalating violence in Syria ... Permanent Security Council members Russia and China have acted as Syria's protector on the council by repeatedly blocking Western efforts to take stronger U.N. action - such as sanctions - against the Syrian government to try to end the war. Both sides to the Syrian conflict have been accused of committing atrocities but the United Nations says the government and its allies have been more culpable."

China and Russia voted to oppose a UN proposal in 2012 that would have imposed a no-fly zone on Syria. Russian Ambassador to the UN - Vitaly Churkin; China ambassador to the UN - Li Baodong (image taken from return2source.wordpress.com)

Besides the appalling death toll, over 1 million Syrians have become either refugees (primarily across the borders into Turkey and Jordan but also to Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt) or are internally displaced. The basic infrastructure of the country - water,sewer and roads - are being demolished, as well as a variety of culturally significant structures and sites.

Fleeing by the numbers according to this CNN graphic

Refugee camps in both Jordan and Turkey are overloaded, but nonetheless better by far than more informal and rudimentary conditions of those Syrians displaced within the country itself.

Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-qaeda

Western sources, as well as factions within the Syrian opposition were dismayed by the announcement of one of the larger rebel factions that it was formally aligning itself with al-Qaeda. "The sons of Al-Nusra Front pledge allegiance to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri," Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said in a recording.

Al-nusra fighters in Syria. This faction has been labeled by the US as a terrorist organization...

From an AFP article, "A decision by the head of al-Nusra Front to pledge allegiance to Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has prompted unprecedented criticism from some of Syria’s Islamist rebel brigades. Until now, rebels had sought to bury their differences with al-Nusra, reluctant to jeopardize ties with a force that is militarily superior to most of the country’s rebel factions. But an announcement this week by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, claiming al-Nusra as part of its network, and a pledge of allegiance from al-Nusra’s chief to Zawahiri have prompted rare direct and public criticism. “When we in Syria launched our jihad (holy war) against the sectarian regime... we did not do so for the sake of any allegiance to a man here or another there,” the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front, an umbrella group of rebel brigades, said in a statement on Thursday.

The announcement underscores a longstanding concern of Western allies that the Free Syria movement is increasingly infiltrated and radicalized by Islamic extremists, and ironically boosts Syrian President Assad's stance that he is fighting against Islamists.

US sending contingent to Jordan (aid now, but planning for a larger force with a more significant task)

From the AP, "The Pentagon is sending about 200 soldiers from an Army headquarters unit to Jordan to assist efforts to contain violence along the Syrian border and plan for any operations needed to ensure the safety of chemical weapons in Syria, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told Congress Wednesday." The development ups the ante for the US which has long resisted any significant military deployment connected to the Syrian conflict. The unit sent however, is not just one of generic "soldiers" but the 1st Armored Division's contingent of planners and specialists in intelligence, logistics and operations.

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Training camp inside Jordan but near Syrian border, similar to where US planners are now headed in greater numbers. Little acknowledged are the presence of UK troops with similar intent.

The deployment indicates the seriousness with which the US and other Western countries are viewing the creep of developments in Syria. Jordan has long resisted any significant presence of Western troops inside its country, as Jordanian islamists are sure to use the news to bolster their criticism. However, the increasing likelihood that Syria's chemical weapons arsenal will be in danger of being captured or transferred to Islamic elements has trumped those calculations.

Israel becoming very restless

Finally, Israel, long focused on Iran's growing nuclear capability, has acted only once in the Syrian civil war, attacking a convoy of weapons apparently headed to Lebanon in late January, 2013. Its military, though, is increasingly concerned that chemical weapons as well as advanced weaponry held by Assad's government may find their way into even more extremist hands.

In late January 2013, Israeli warplanes attacked a weapons convoy headed from Syria to Lebanon - details of what was targeted are not available to the "general public" and government reactions around the world were uniformly minimal - which usually signals it was a serious matter and that there is little to gain from acknowledging the action.

Events seem to be moving towards an uncertain end ... sometime in the next weeks or months.

Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey feeling Syria's civil war

The Syrian civil war is intermittently spilling over into its neighbors: Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. Of these three, Lebanon has been the most closely tied to the Assad regime in Syria, and it is no surprise that this small country is the most vulnerable to serious unraveling.

Syria and its four neighbors - Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq

The civil war itself in Syria has been well covered by journalists, and in this blog. The death toll is now estimated from 28 to 45,000, with the highest being reported by the Syrian Free Army (SFA). By October 2012, the FSA estimates another 28,000 people are "missing," as in taken by government security forces into custody. It goes without saying that the numbers of wounded and injured are considerably higher - hospitals and medical personnel are overwhelmed by the carnage.

As always, children are the most vulnerable in a war setting, and humanitarian efforts are always inadequate

The UN estimates another 1.2 million Syrians have been internally displaced within the country, and hundreds of thousands have fled across the border, principally to Turkey, next to Jordan, with smaller percentages into Iraq and Lebanon. The infrastructure of the country is further degraded daily as Syrian government forces are now routinely using air power in bombing and strafing opposition concentrations.

Syrian jet launches missile

The country's infrastructure crumbles daily

The most immediate impact on Syria's neighbors are from civilians fleeing the conflict. Refugee camps are being erected in Turkey primarily, Jordan second, while Iraq's desert border is less hospitable both in terms of access by most of the Syrian population, and lack of infrastructure in Iraq for this relief work.

Refugee camp being set up in Turkey.


Lebanon

Lebanon is a special case. It is in a fragile state politically, and a car bomb last week killed a senior intelligence official who was against Syria's Bashar al-Assad. The killing emphasized the presence and reach of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who strongly supports Assad, as does Iran. Because of the strategic dynamics of Iran and Hezbollah supporting Assad, the "arc" of belligerency in the region, Lebanon is especially challenged to remain independent and able to defend its borders.

Lebanon's capital, Beirut, is close to Syria's capital Damascus, and both are close to the borders with Israel

Masked gunmen from the al-Muqdad clan gather at the al-Muqdad family association’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut. As always, clan and tribal loyalties grow important in a region of tension, as middle or neutral ground erodes as an option for most civilians.

Lebanon has vast refugee camps from 1948 that have grown into permanent towns. Residents of this camp are Palestinians who fled the war of Arab nations against Israel when that country fought for its sovereignty. From the camps derives much of the manpower and ideology of Hezbollah.

Much of southern Lebanon is a security zone butting up against Israel - here a protest crowd confronts a line of Israeli soldiers.

The Syrian civil war continues to threaten the whole region. It will become one of many festering issues for the next US President as that country's election nears.

Syria's Arab Spring swept aside as conflict degenerates into religious persecution and sectarian cleansing

The conflict in Syria is slowly being revealed in all its brutal complexity, certainly more than the hopeful narrative with which it was first framed. What much of the Western media first described optimistically as Syria's own "Arab Spring" - a rising up of a hopeful, youthful, moderately secular, democratic outpouring of Arab aspirations - has been overtaken, unfortunately by more splintered agendas and hardened factions.

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After the initial Arab Spring narrative that lasted through the first half of 2011, came a Free Syria Army template- a clean patriotic rebellion against an oppressive regime: an armed version of the Arab Spring youth - akin perhaps to the first versions of the Libyan rebels. Turkey early on called for its ally President al-Assad to concede some power through negotiations with the FSA movement regarding its legitimate demands. The UN's peace initiative, led by former UN Secretary Koki Annan also began under this narrative - maintaining the fiction that there two equal rational sides willing to negotiate. A familiar post cold war tension, however, forced its way into the conflict, with Russia and China supporting Syria, while much of the West via NATO supporting the aspirations of the rebels (similar to the story in Libya).

Earlier in the conflict, the UN appointed Kofi Annan to act as liaison between President Assad (shown here) and the opposition.

Any meaningful action by the UN was stymied by Russia. Here US President Obama confers with Russian President Putin.

Later in 2011, reporting acknowledged further complexity of the conflict by noting Assad's shadowy use of the Shabiha. This mafia-type armed militia supporting Assad began to do the dirtier work of executions and oppression that the regime did not want to be associated with. At the same time, mutterings about "foreign elements" being found or involved came more frequently from both Western intelligence and the Assad regime itself. Those fighters - hard core fighters from Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya, Yemen - were being drawn into conflict for ideological reasons. Elements of Al-qaeda were more consistently being mentioned. What wasn't clear was whether the FSA (Free Syria Army), itself a haphazard grouping of fighters opposed to Assad (never with a centralized command structure or even a political "head"), was allied with these foreign elements, or simply finding itself fighting longside others finding opportunities with an embattled government.

Additional layers of the conflict were added over time with discussions about tribal loyalties - the Assad leadership part of a small Alewite tribe - along with the sectarian Muslim divide between Shiites and Sunnis. The term "civil war" was increasingly used.

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In the Syrian town of Duoma, lives lost await burial.

In the spring of 2012, with the conflict now being more characterized as a civil war, geopolitical references were increasingly cited. Iran's "arc" of influence was somberly noted with the Iranian's President Ahmadinejad strongly supporting Assad, as was Lebanon's Hezbollah repeating Iran's position. Not surprisingly, both Iran and Hezbollah attempted to finger Israel as the fundamental enemy, though in truth, Sunni Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia were viewing the conflict as a counter against increasing Iranian influence. In this sense, the civil war between internal Syrian factions, was also a proxy war, fought locally, but in the background between Sunni and Shiite groupings, as well as Western vs post Cold-War belligerents.

Iran early on voiced support for President Assad, left, shown here hosting a visit by Iran's President Ahmadinejad

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Refugee camps have been erected, and refugees have flooded into Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan

By early summer this year, with Assad in trouble as evidenced by an assassination of several in his inner circle, both the US and Israel referenced their concern over Syria's apparent mammoth arsenal of chemical weapons. The concern was whether those armaments would be seized and distributed to "unknown" (Al-qaeda or other Islamic extremists) in an anarchy that was looking more and more likely. In early August, the UN initiative came to an end, finding itself lacking any relevance to the actual matters on the ground

Syrian jet fighters now regularly involved, in this case bombing rebel strongholds in Aleppo

And so now nearly 21 months into the conflict, we are seeing the final diverse elements of the country being drawn in to the messy civil war, or proxy war, or both. The BBC reports the more complex situation as one where all sorts of Syrian minority groups are being drawn in: various tribal and religious groupings - the Kurds, the previously mentioned Alewites, Christians, Salafists, and the Druze.

As the BBC describes, "The Druze, who make up 4% to 5% of the population, follow a monotheistic religion drawn on Ismailism, a branch of Shia Islam, and like Syria's Christians initially tried to avoid taking sides in the uprising." The article goes on to describe the latest tactic of the Assad regime, "Shabiha, a term used to describe pro-government thugs, started to get armed in the town [one town in Syria where Druze are in the majority], "The security people recruited all the convicted criminals in prison, released them under an amnesty and armed them under the pretext of protecting the area from armed Salafist gangs ..." The result has been indiscriminate attacks on any perceived group not supporting Assad.

A particularly horrific image of a small street pooled with blood

But in fact most of that recent BBC article tracked the increasingly desperate plight of Christians across Syria (about 10% of the population, surrounded by the larger Muslim majority of Shias and Sunnis). A Global Post story notes, "In interviews with more than a dozen Qseir residents, a Wall Street Journal reporter recently discovered a vicious cycle of murder and kidnap between Sunni and Christian families, triggered by claims that Christians were acting as regime spies. Almost all Qseir’s Christians have now fled, with many taking shelter in makeshift tents in the northern Bekaa valley."

Lebanon's border with Syria is increasingly militarized and violent

Religious entities - the Catholic Church for one - are much sharper in their concerns about the Christian communities as August 2012 unfolds. CATHOLIC NEWS OF THE WEEK in late August also focused on the town of Oseir .... The leader of the armed opposition (ostensibly the Free Syrian Army) gave an order in early August that Christians had to leave the town. "

People are split as to the reason for the order. While some say that the armed opposition leader is trying to protect them from further bloodshed, others claim that it is just one more example of focussed discrimination and repression against Christians.

A third opinion says that many Christians have openly expressed their loyalty to the state and for this reason the opposition is against them.

The Christian communities of Syria, ancient ones, are quickly being lost. It is a loss for Syria, as well as the whole array of beliefs and traditions contained in Christianity worldwide.

While many have fled, mostly to Damascus, the fate of the around 1,000 who elected to remain in their homes in defiance of the order is still unknown. Fides (the Catholic news agency) says that it has received reports saying that Islamic Salafist extremist groups are strong in the ranks of the opposition and they consider Christians to be infidels, so they confiscate their possessions and carry out executions of Christians."

Reports centering on Christian community persecution occuring under the cover of the larger conflict abound. As the Catholic story goes on, “Many Iraqi Christians fled to Syria after they became targets and their churches were burned. Now the same thing is happening in Syria, ... They are living in fear of what could happen to them and whether or not they are safe. Whole suburbs where Christians lived in Homs have been destroyed,” said Father Rahal Dergham, the chaplain to the Syrian and Iraqi Catholic communities in Sydney archdiocese, Australia.

“Priests have also been killed and others have been seriously wounded. In Homs, the church of Mar Elian is in ruins and Our Lady of Peace is occupied by rebels, and the Armenian Apostolic Church and its adjoining school has been seized and occupied as a base for the Syrian Liberation Army.” Father Dergham was born, raised and ordained a priest in Syria. Two of his brothers and some of his relatives still live in his hometown, midway between Homs and Hama. “In Homs and other cities, no Catholic or Christian who leaves their house is safe. In villages it is also difficult, with Christians, no matter where they live, given no protection against the violence by the government or anyone else,” he says."

So, the point of this sorry post is that within any conflict, middle ground is lost, people must choose sides or flee, and those who stay most often become more radicalized or hardened in their perspective and behavior. A tragedy for this country that is still grinding towards an uncertain conclusion.

16,000 and counting

It has been nearly four months since a post on Syria and its chaos (February 25, 2012). Unfortunately, nothing has changed for the better, but much for the worse.

A posting from a Syrian opposition communication blog created a graphic that compels us to update the sorrow and death toll there.

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Since February, a number of events or trends have emerged or become clearer ...

The UN Peace Plan

According to Wikipedia, "The Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria or the U.N.-Arab League peace envoy for Syria launched in February 2012, is considered the most serious international attempt to resolve the Syrian conflict in the Middle East diplomatically. The peace plan enforced a cease-fire to take place across Syria since April 10, 2012, though in reality the cease-fire was announced by the Syrian government on April 14. Following the Houla massacre and the consequent Free Syrian Army (FSA) ultimatum to the Syrian government, the cease fire practically collapsed towards the end of May 2012 ..."

So, this peace plan pushed by former UN General Secretary Kofi Annan ended predictably. While one would never dismiss an attempt or repeated attempts to find diplomatic solutions, there is a point at which one must consider this effort in particular, an exercise in futility. With Assad having little reason to think he needed to give up power, and with the opposition receiving little more than faint praise, nearly everyone expected that it would end in failure, though no one would say so. Thus, we were able to listen to the chief proponent Annan singularly providing a lone positive spin on talks, unable to admit any possibility of it not working in order to negate any charges of a self-fulfilling prophecy. (The plan was simply that Bashar al-Assad and the opposition would sit down rationally and negotiate peacefully, UN monitors would come in and monitor, and the conflict would wind down in orderly fashion ...)


UN envoy Kofi Annan, left, and Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President, right, "conferring" on the prospects for peace in Syria ...

As the string of public meetings between Annan and Assad ran its course (along with a charade of positive statements: "hope" seen, monitors to be deployed, etc.) the shabiha - Assad's shadowy militia/gang - orchestrated massacres, shooting families in their homes execution style in Houla a series of villages near the Syrian city of Homs, while Assad's formal forces with heavy weaponry shelled opposition neighborhoods indiscriminately in several cities.

Assad's friends: Iran and Hezbollah enthusiastically fund Syria's Assad in their attempt to build a crescent of power, while Russia honors weapons agreements without regard or sympathy to the use of those weapons against Syria's own people. Both China and Russia declare - continually - that what a sovereign nation does inside its own borders is no one else's business (and these two countries represent a pack of oppressive governments who don't want another instance of an outside force interfering in a sovereign nation's affairs).

Syrian opposition's quiet and timid allies:
Turkey is providing refugee camps and security to over 24,000 Syrians, including some rear base sanctuary for Syria's Free Army elements. But in the past two months, this nation, at one time speaking loudly against its former ally has been quiet. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf state nations are quietly funneling money to the opposition, though up to very recently, no heavier weapons than small arms have been in the Free Syrian Army's arsenal.

Syria's and the world's vulture - Al Qaeda:
Abu Musab Al Suri, one of Al Qaeda's foremost strategists, was recently released from an Aleppo prison, according to an article in the London-based newspaper Al Hayat.

"Mr Al Suri was reportedly captured by the US army in Pakistan several years ago and, oddly, handed over to the Syrian authorities. Now he is out there, but nobody knows where exactly in a very unstable Syria, the writer said. Soon after his release, two bomb attacks hit security buildings in the city of Aleppo, north-west of Syria. Sure enough, Al Qaeda's Iraq branch issued a statement endorsing "jihad in Syria," though not explicitly claiming responsibility for the attacks."

The handwringing, moralizing, declaration-heavy but procrastinating and cautious Western response:
The US and Europe find all sorts of reasons (at least on the surface) to stay out of this one - eerily citing a litany of reasons that also applied to some degree to Libya which did NOT prevent their open intervention.

So here is the status of Syria's woes 15 months later after it began. The only difference is the steady increase in deaths, displacement and the likelihood of a bitter civil war, which would be reported on daily. As we've learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a terrible cost in intervention. But as we've learned in Rwanda and Darfur, there is also a horrific cost of sitting on one's hands.

Going forward - a few new elements

A new face
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group outside Syria, last week chose Abdulbaset Sieda, a 56-year-old activist who has been living in Sweden for more than a decade, as their new face and perhaps leader. (One of the Western world's complaints is that they don't know who the Syrian opposition "really is," so now they have a person at least.)

Abdulbaset Sieda, the new face of a main Syrian opposition group. His Kurdish ethnicity raises interesting hackles and connections over in Iraq, as well as Turkey...

Time ticking on Turkey-US coordination of patience, patience, and more patience
From a Foreign Policy article, "Ankara and Washington both abhor the Syrian regime’s brutal crackdown on demonstrators. But according to some reports, Ankara is hosting the Syrian opposition and possibly even helping arm it.

In contrast, Obama’s cautious policy on Syria appears to be driven by a desire to avoid three things: the political unknown after Bashar al-Assad, war in an election year, and a new military campaign in a Muslim country.

[Turkey Prime Minister] Erdogan might find it increasingly difficult to tolerate Obama’s “wait-and-see” strategy. For the Turks, slaughter in Syria is not an overseas affair, but rather a tragedy close to home that they cannot ignore.

Turkey’s border with Syria spans 510 miles, crisscrossing ethnic groups and families. Some Turks have loved ones in Syria who are in harm’s way. These constituents demand that Erdogan do his utmost to stop the al-Assad regime from perpetrating its crimes.

And many Sunni Turks, including those in the Ankara government, cannot turn a blind eye to the crackdown because they see the violence as a horrifying case of persecution by the Alawites who run the country.

Such religious sensitivities will be heightened later this summer during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts in late July."

Will, in fact, the holy month of Ramadan (late July) change anything, or is it just another marker along the way?

Deathtoll in Syria mounts, words fly ...

One of the "horrors" of our modern accessibility to world events, is the excruciating minute by minute - it seems - witnessing of violence, and way too much time to ponder the mystifying selectivity of what is or is not covered by media, much less what is or is not addressed by the world.

Syria and its neighbors

Syria's daily reports of armed forces shelling and blasting civilian populations is both numbing and frustrating. In the eleven months since an "Arab spring" of sorts emerged in this country, the government of Bashar al-Assad has sought to crush opposition, first in a sort of "whack a mole" strategy, but increasingly with more deadly fire. The death toll in Syria is now over 5,000 (Saudi Arabia lists it as over 7,000), far past the trigger of 1,000 to 2,000 which moved the West to take on Libya's now-deceased Gadaffi.

A map of Syria, showing the major cities and where protests have centered. It is outdated in that deaths have now occurred about everywhere as well as what might be classified as major protests.

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Egyptian bloggers are paying attention as well. This from an Egyptian woman, with the dark brown representing blood where martyrs have died.

The framework and timeline of Syria's conflict seem clear enough:

In early 2011, Bashar al-Assad's regime, based from within its own minority Alewite tribe, was busy with its longstanding, business-as-usual hostile stance against Israel, while continuing its quiet domination of neighboring Lebanon through its proxy ally Hezbollah. With a certain amount of status in the Arab world (Syria was a founder of the Arab League), it maintained neighborly relations with Turkey to the north, Russia on the international power scene, and content within its informal regional alliance with its strong supporter Iran.

Bashar (center) with his buddies, the holocaust-denying Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (left), and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasralla.

Then came the Arab spring. Syria watched warily as the protests erupted in a handful of countries in the region (Yemen, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt), and brought about the downfall of leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. As the West intervened in Libya, Assad chose to deal harshly with its own set of protestors - hoping to "nip it in the bud," as we would say.

Bashar al-Assad has long carefully cultivated a modern Western image, buttressed by his young attractive wife, Asma. (Asma's dress of course would not be acceptable or comparable to his buddies' wives.)

By June, however, a new pattern was becoming clear. Protests were not dwindling, and each death of a protestor resulted in a funeral that fanned flames further. Each Friday's day of prayers resulted in a new wave of protests, and Assad was loosening his rules of engagement for his security forces, including the murkily-linked go-ahead given to the feared Shabiha - a militia of thugs who had long run protection rackets, weapons and drug-smuggling rings, and other criminal enterprises in cities along the Mediterranean. And in June for the first time, the Arab League formally expressed its disapproval of Syria's actions against its own people.

Today, after eight months of steadily escalating violence, Syria is isolated, saved on the international scene only by predictable self-serving votes in the UN by Russia and China, who wish to avoid any precedent for nations to intervene or condemn what is sacrosanct - how a government conducts its internal affairs. The Arab League has now taken a stand against the present regime of Syria, calling for it to step down, and the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly (The vote in the 193-member world body on the Arab-sponsored resolution was 137-12 with 17 abstentions) for a resolution backing an Arab League plan calling for the Syrian President to step down while strongly condemning human rights violations by his regime.

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Voting in the UN General Assembly condemning Syria for its repression. Let's be clear on who voted against the resolution, the language of which can be found at the UN website(www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2012/ga11207.doc.htm). The votes against were from Belarus, Bolivia, China, Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ecuador, Iran, Nicaragua, Russian Federation, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe

Turkey, Syria's neighbor to the north, is strengthened the guarding of its common border, providing refuge to those able to flee, and providing de facto protection to what some observers note are armed resisters. Jordan to the south is also now building refugee camps for those civilians fleeing Syrian violence.

Bashar al-Assad had at one time a 270,000 person security force, but according to Turkish intelligence, about 40,000 have deserted, and over 2500 soldiers have joined the opposition Free Syrian Army. The notorious Shabiha of June has become just one of many violent groups now tearing at what remains of the country's societal fabric.

The West, led by the US and the UK are becoming more free with undiplomatic language towards Syria and its UN supporters China and Russia. The latest was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's use of the word "despicable" when it came to these two countries votes in support of Syria. Syria outraged the West again this past few days when it deliberately shelled a makeshift press center, killing two well respected journalists.

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Marie Colvin was one of two journalists killed in what is described as deliberate targeting by Syrian forces. Colvin lost an eye while reporting on the civil war in Sri Lanka back in 2001. With due respect, the other journalist killed was a younger man, French photographer Remi Ochlik.

But words are just that. And the conflict and death toll could get much worse, so the average westerner at least, will likely be bombarded with random images and stories on a daily basis for the foreseeable future.

It is a sobering statistic to note that in the Libyan spring, which morphed into a western intervention, that in just six months, at least 30,000 people were killed and 50,000 wounded. In September, 2011, Naji Barakat, Libya's interim health minister, offered this first detailed estimate of the high cost in lives of bringing down Gadaffi. Barakat said at the time he expected the final figure for dead and wounded to be higher than his current estimate. But the world has since moved on - by and large deeming the intervention a success, the "smart way" to win a war - and more than a casual search on the internet unearths no further updates on casualties after the September assessment.

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This neighborhood apartment complex in the city of Homs, pocked by Syrian shells and bullets.

Syria continues to sink, Western media distracted

Unfortunately, it seems the Western media has slipped into a routine concerning the chaotic and violent stalemate in Syria. At least in the US, we are likely to read or hear (or be fed) the "implications" of a 30 vote swing in the Iowa caucus and what it might mean for the GOP, or the allegations of an "open marriage" request by another GOP candidate as he battles for votes in the religiously conservative state of South Carolina, than of Syria.

In Syria, Bashir Assad's regime fights on, perhaps even emboldened by the apparent declining pressure and coverage by the Western press. And it is not the Western press or governments alone. The UN blandly tracks and reports that perhaps 5,000 citizens have died since the uprising. The Arab League, which had sent an observer mission to the country, is now facing a report due Saturday on the observers findings, and the league seems particularly unexcited about further moves than perhaps a 1 month extension of the "observation." As the BBC notes, "the mandate of the Arab League observer mission in Syria is due to expire, a month after it arrived to verify the implementation of a peace initiative. The head of the mission is finalizing a report on the ongoing violence, which will be discussed at a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers on Saturday."

Contrast the rhetoric and actions of Western nations, the UN, and the Arab League concerning Libya, with how they address Syria. There are major differences of course. Libya's Gaddafi had long been a loner when it came to support within the Arab League, as well as many international odious actions which isolated the regime. Libya is somewhat geographically isolated among a tier of north African Arab nations while Syria is embedded in close proximity to the Arab-Israeli powder-keg, as well as near the oil rich Persian Gulf. Iran had little at stake in Libya, but is deeply involved with both Lebanon and Syria. Libya was a small country of 6 million, Syria is 20 million. And then there is oil ... Libya has a lot, Syria has little.

Syria's borders - the most problematic is the one with Lebanon where arms are being smuggled into the country for the opposition, even though the Lebanese government is dominated by Iranian and Syrian leaning supporters.

All this to note that because there is little enthusiasm for dealing with Syria, observers are fearing that the failure to budge the entrenched Assad regime is increasing the chances for a widespread civil war.

An Australian newspaper report noted that "Lebanese black market arms dealers are struggling to cope with a soaring demand for weapons and ammunition from Syria, where a ten-month uprising is steadily evolving into an armed confrontation. The failure so far of peaceful protests to dislodge the regime of President Assad and international hesitancy to intervene in Syria ... has encouraged the emergence of armed rebel groups who are fighting back against security forces."

Captured weapons being smuggled into Syria from Lebanon are shown here to the press.

The article goes on, "The scale of the violence, the durability of the regime and the reluctance of the international community to intervene directly have persuaded many Syrian activists that peaceful protests have run their course and that armed resistance is the only alternative. "We don't need people. We have the people. We need weapons and ammunition. If we had that, I can assure you that Assad will be finished very quickly," said Ahmad, an activist in hiding in Lebanon. He added that the Free Syrian Army was ready to recruit from the civilian population but could not do so until more armaments become available. "Either we wait for support from other countries or we will play for time and see how much we can steal from the regime," he said."

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Syria's strategy to intercept smuggled weapons is two fold. Syria is mining its border with Lebanon ... which portends poorly for citizens in the future...

Syria is also pressuring the Lebanese government, shown meeting here, to aggressively stop smuggling, which the government has announced it will do.

So, a sad and violent story continues to unfold far from the election frenzy in the US, and apparently no longer high on the agenda of the UN and the Arab League. The festering tragedy will continue ...

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The town of Zabadani, close to the Lebanese border is being fiercely contested by the Syrian armed forces and the Free Syrian army. The Free Syrian Army is still a lofty goal as it remains a loose knit grouping of armed opposition groups