Nigeria election is historic - now the hard work begins

Gratifying to see pretty good coverage of Nigeria's recent election by news agencies. Because this election, conducted Saturday, March 29, resulted in the nation's first apparently successful and peaceful transition from one party to the opposition, a public exchange of respect and support by the incoming and outgoing president, a pledge to tackle corruption which has plagued this oil rich nation for decades, and finally a resolve by the new Muslim President to get serious about Boko Haram.


Nigeria - huge potential, still unrealized. Graphic from nigeriamasterweb.com

As a Voice of America report stated, "President-elect Muhammadu Buhari said his country has "embraced democracy" and put its one-party-state past behind it. “We have proven to the world that we are a people who have embraced democracy and a people who seek a government by, for and of the people," Buhari said. He spoke Wednesday in Abuja, just hours after the electoral commission declared him the official winner of Saturday's presidential election, defeating incumbent Goodluck Jonathan by more than 2 million votes.

Buhari says his government will "spare no effort" to defeat insurgent group Boko Haram. Buhari called Jonathan "a worthy opponent" and said he extends the "hand of fellowship" to the outgoing president. Jonathan, who conceded, called for peace, saying, “The unity, stability and progress of our dear country is more important than anything else.” ... There have been no reports of post-election violence in Nigeria - a major change from 2011, when news of Jonathan's victory over Buhari sparked violence in the north that killed about 800 people."


President elect Muhammedu Buhari (left) being publicly acknowledged by incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan. (Is that Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary in the background?) Photo from http://nationalmirroronline.net

Election factoids (from the Voice of America article)

*Jonathan's People's Democratic Party has ruled Nigeria since 1999.

*Buhari, 72, of the All Progressives Congress, is to be inaugurated May 29.

*Nigeria's Electoral Commission chairman Attahiru Jega announced earlier Wednesday that Buhari had officially won the election, getting 15.4 million votes to Jonathan's 12.9 million.

*President-elect Buhari was previously Nigeria's military ruler for 20 months after officers seized power in a December 1983 coup. He was toppled by another military coup, but has run for the presidency four times since democracy was restored in Nigeria in 1999.

Teatree musings

Mr. Buhari has declared two great directions for his incoming administration - 1) an end to endemic corruption that has stemmed to a great degree from revenues generated by the country's oil industry. 2) A serious fight to degrade if not destroy Boko Haram. These militants recently declared their allegiance to ISIS, the Islamic State jihadists ravaging Syria and Iraq and elsewhere.

His hands will be full. High oil prices that have long buoyed Nigeria have fallen in half in the past six months. Budgets that have been used to lavish funds on a variety of important and phantom needs alike are facing deep cuts. Now it gets serious - how to cut the fat and waste while leaving essential services functioning.


While Nigerian oil overwhelmingly flows via pipeline, apparently some fossil fuel is still delivered in barrels. In either case, the fortunes of Nigeria and revenues from its oil reserves go hand in hand. Photo from www.djazairess.com

Corruption

From an al-Jazeera article, "fundamentally, Buhari will need to oversee structural changes to the Nigerian state. Constitutional reform is needed to update or even replace the 1999 constitution with one that empowers citizens, decentralizes power and enables a more efficient governance framework. He will also need to revamp the oil sector. Jonathan’s administration was incapable of even enacting a new oil law, let alone tackling the massive corruption in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. There are perhaps 10 to 15 profitable years left before the world begins a concerted move away from hydrocarbons. Buhari’s administration can steer the Nigerian economy away from the curse of oil. A more efficient use of its diminished oil revenues could offer an opportunity for long-term infrastructural development and rapid turnaround in the power sector."

Military effectiveness and Boko Haram

Perhaps most intriguing is the emphasis that Mr Buhari has placed on defeating the Boko Haram insurgency. The nation, long split between a Christian south and Muslim north, has to some degree united behind the promises of Buhari to take the fight to Boko Haram. With his Muslim credentials, he has a high degree of support from many northern Nigerians, and thus may be able to push security initiatives against the jihadists in more certain terms. Certainly the very low bar of military effectiveness to this point gives him room to improve. As recently as January, the UK Guardian stated the prognosis succinctly, "Army corruption, troop mutinies, alienated citizens and a lack of political will are among reasons that militants continue to thrive." Items three and four may have changed dramatically with this election.


Nigerian soldiers training. To Teatree, the readiness and trustworthiness of Nigeria's military is a mystery. Certainly its performance in the past several years attempting to deal with the jihadists is dismal enough. Photo from africajournalismtheworld.com

As to turning around Nigeria's military effectiveness (items one and two above), that may be a much more difficult task. Time Magazine carried a recent piece (here) where it stated, "Nigeria’s military has been in decline for the past 16 years, says J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Washington D.C.- based Atlantic Council, ever since the country moved from a military dictatorship to a democracy in 1999. The intervening years have seen the country’s armed forces hollowed out by a combination of poor leadership, graft, misdirected staff training and a succession of civilian governments so worried about another coup that they have starved the armed forces of key resources.

To a certain extent, part of the issue is size. The country may have a 90,000 strong standing army, says Pham, but not all of them are soldiers. Nurses, medics, administration personnel and military police don’t fight, “so the actual number of combat ready troops is much lower.” Add to the fact that some 3,000 troops are currently serving in United Nations peacekeeping missions around the world, and the number left is “inadequate for the task of defending a country the size of Nigeria,” with its population of 174 million and a history of local insurgencies."

Nigeria should be respected for its successful, clean election, while the leadership's unity during the changeover should not be minimized. And yet, now the hard work of good governance has just begun.

Israel's election shows democracy is messy

Winston Churchill once reflected, "Many forms of Gov­ern­ment have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pre­tends that democ­racy is per­fect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democ­racy is the worst form of Gov­ern­ment except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…(stated in the UK House of Com­mons, 11 Novem­ber 1947)

And so we go to Israel's latest election held a few days ago, in which Benjamin Netanyahu and his party surged in the last few days (or had led along except in the most-desired-outcome category) to win big. One might think that the only election across the entire middle east, an election that was deemed fair, without rigging, and without violence or vendettas, would have been hailed as a triumph. Even an event that all Arab states in the region should strive to imitate.


A 2013 view ranking relative freedom in elections and multiparty democracy among the world's countries. In the Middle East only Israel stands out in the sea of red, though the nation is so small relatively speaking, one can barely make it out. For a larger and interactive map of the world's nations in 2015, go to freedomhouse.org/report

And yet there are many glum faces

To the U.S. administration, and many editorial boards of western news agencies and newspapers, the outcome of this election was a political disaster. Israel's right-leaning Likud party topped the center-left Zionist Union party by an even bigger margin than previously, even though predictions based on exit polling were still assuming a Zionist Union victory. In Israel itself, the glum left of center population expressed feelings of frustration and isolation - were they alone in their "correct assessment" of what was best for Israel? How could that be?

Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party won, not by a slim margin, but by a solid majority - an outcome conceded by the full spectrum of critics and parties of opposition. Photo from http://www.worldjewishcongress.org


Isaac Herzog, leader of the Zionist Union party was considered to be the front runner for much of the election campaign, and was a clear favorite of the U.S. administration. While the administration criticized Netanyahu for speaking by invitation to the U.S. Congress weeks ago, it was not a problem for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to add his prestige to the internal Israeli candidate of choice back in January 2015. Photo from tabletmag.com

Netanyahu's performance in the last few days of the election drew the most criticism. He stated that there would be no Palestinian state in the near future while he was Prime Minister (if elected ...). As reported by Ynet news before the election, "Having previously hinted that he would accept a Palestinian state, Netanyahu reversed course on Monday, citing risks that he linked to the regional spread of Islamist militancy. He said that if he is re-elected, the Palestinians would not get the independent state they seek in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.

"Whoever moves to establish a Palestinian state or intends to withdraw from territory is simply yielding territory for radical Islamic terrorist attacks against Israel," he told the Israeli news site NRG. Asked if that meant a state would not be established if he remained prime minister, he said: "Indeed."

Upon winning the election, Netanyahu and his government sought to clarify his statements, emphasizing that a sustainable two nation solution was still his goal, but the emphasis was on what could last, what could guarantee more than just promises by the Palestinian Authority.

The U.S., Israel's strongest financial backer and ally, has chosen under the current administration to ratchet up its own pressure. Instead of asking its ally to clarify the words, or the meaning of the words, or some diplomatic-speak, it has chosen to take the most brittle meaning to the Prime Minister's words and from that threaten to reassess all manner of support and future advocacy for Israel.


These two leaders do not like each other - it took two full days before U.S. President Obama to make a call of congratulations to Netanyahu for triumphing in the only fair election held for hundreds of miles in all directions, and a process repeated time and time again since its founding in 1948. Photo from www.truthrevolt.org

Teatree's understanding is this - that Netanyahu is a polarizing figure, large numbers of Israelis have no doubt grown tired of his personality and confrontiveness. Israel can ill afford to isolate itself any more from its allies than it already is, whether fairly or not. Isaac Herzog was a pleasant refreshing alternative, and one who had been focused on internal economic bread and butter issues. And those issues are important.

On the other hand, Israel is nearly surrounded by a ring of hostile neighbors, and with Iran in the distance still working on nuclear capability, still considers itself under an existential threat. In that light, U.S. columnist Charles Krauthammer stridently defended Netanyahu's controversial remarks with several points below. The full opinion piece is here.

Krauthammer points out the falsity of "the idea that peace prospects are now dead because Netanyahu has declared that there will be no Palestinian state while he is Israel’s prime minister."

"There would be no peace and no Palestinian state if Isaac Herzog were prime minister either. Or Ehud Barak or Ehud Olmert for that matter. The latter two were (non-Likud) prime ministers who offered the Palestinians their own state — with its capital in Jerusalem and every Israeli settlement in the new Palestine uprooted — only to be rudely rejected. This is not ancient history. This is 2000, 2001 and 2008 — three astonishingly concessionary peace offers within the past 15 years. Every one rejected."

"The fundamental reality remains: This generation of Palestinian leadership — from Yasser Arafat to Mahmoud Abbas — has never and will never sign its name to a final peace settlement dividing the land with a Jewish state. And without that, no Israeli government of any kind will agree to a Palestinian state."

"Today, however, there is a second reason a peace agreement is impossible: the supreme instability of the entire Middle East. For half a century, it was run by dictators no one liked but with whom you could do business. ... That authoritarian order is gone, overthrown by the Arab Spring. Syria is wracked by a multi-sided civil war that has killed 200,000 people and that has al-Qaeda allies, Hezbollah fighters, government troops and even the occasional Iranian general prowling the Israeli border. Who inherits? No one knows."

"... everything is in flux. Amid this mayhem, by what magic would the West Bank, riven by a bitter Fatah-Hamas rivalry, be an island of stability? What would give any Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement even a modicum of durability? ... With or without elections, the West Bank could fall to Hamas overnight. At which point fire rains down on Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport and the entire Israeli urban heartland — just as it rains down on southern Israel from Gaza when it suits Hamas, which has turned that first Palestinian state into a terrorist fire base."

"Any Arab-Israeli peace settlement would require Israel to make dangerous and inherently irreversible territorial concessions on the West Bank in return for promises and guarantees. Under current conditions, these would be written on sand."


Israel is tiny, and then there would be a Palestinian state interspersed ... As the saying goes, what could possibly go wrong? Graphic from www.pbs.org

Ruins are Rare, Extremists not so much

'"The incredible enormities of the Commune, their massacre of the Archbishop ... and other hostages, their countless murders of other persons who refused to join them in their fiendish work, their horrid and well organized plans of incendiary intended to destroy almost the entire city ... are crimes that will never die. I regret to say that to these unparalleled atrocities of the Commune are to be joined by the awful vengeances inflicted by the [fill in the blank] troops. The killing, tearing to pieces, stabbing, beating, and burning of men, women, and children, innocent and guilty alike, by the government troops will stain to the last ages the history of [fill in the blank], and the execrations of mankind will be heaped upon the names who shall be found responsible for acts that disgrace human nature." ... The value of the architectural landmarks and other treasures destroyed was inestimable.'

So recounts the historian David McCollough in his book, "The Greater Journey: Americans in Paris" of a dark two years of France's history, 1870-1871, when an anarchist movement took control of the city, only to be defeated by the government in exile two years later. The specific quote above is from the US ambassador to France at the time, Elihu Washburne - who critics dismissed as unfit for the job when first appointed by President Grant, yet distinguished himself throughout his long appointment, over eight years through a tumultuous time.

On the other hand ... who remembers the Commune, much less Elihu Washburne today? And what were those architectural landmarks and other treasures destroyed in Paris at that time? It brings us to this post - a musing over ruins and remnants of previous civilizations that are being destroyed by the extremists of the day - the jihadists. While the tragic slaughter of various peoples by ISIS and fellow jihadists is no doubt the bigger story, the loss of ruins are easier to stomach, and no doubt sooner to be forgotten.


"The ruins of the ancient city of Hatra, a center of religion and trade for the Parthian empire, are in present-day northern Iraq. The city flourished during the first and second centuries BC." photo by Nik Wheeler and quote both found at kids.britannica.com


Artifacts within a museum in the ancient Assyrian village of Nimrod are also offensive ... An image from video posted on a social media account affiliated with the Islamic State group, Feb. 26, 2015, militants take sledgehammers to an ancient artifact in the Ninevah Museum in Mosul, Iraq. Photo: Associated Press

Beyond ISIS, there are the ruins destroyed by Islamists in Timbuktu, Mali, a few years ago.


An ancient shrine in Mali of great offense. Photo from a video posted by the jihadists (what's with their insistence this all has to be recorded for posterity???)


What started off the latest round of purging was the destruction (courtesy of artillery used by the Taliban) in Afghanistan of a large carved image of Buddha. Photo from the NY Times.

This rising up of various extremists - anarchist, fascist, communist, now Islamist - at regular intervals is what keeps intact ruins rare ...

PS - some ruins elsewhere are under attack ...


Mayan ruins in Central America are subject to acidic rain, pollution, and simply the vibrancy of the jungle that has overtaken and hidden many ancient artifacts from today's pilgrims. Photo from water-spouts.blogspot.com

Much at stake in Nigeria's March election

Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation with over 173 million citizens. It is also the country where Boko Haram, the jihadist faction, has terrorized the northern half for the past several years, with little competent response from civil and military authorities.


Nigeria, in West Africa, and the jurisdictions where Boko Haram has been active in intimidation, kidnapping, general violence, and even massacres of villagers and university students. Graphic from The Economist.

So, there is some point to paying attention to its presidential and general assembly election scheduled for March 28, which is a six week postponement from the original plans. The current President, Goodluck Jonathan, has presided over nearly five years of apparent incompetence in attempts to contain and degrade the Boko Haram. Teatree is unsure whether this is due to distraction with other matters, or the exposure of a hollowed out military with a lack of discipline and focus when confronted with this internal force of marauders (ie. think of the meltdown of the Iraqi army when attacked by the Islamic State).


President Goodluck Jonathan, now facing an election where Boko Haram has become the main political issue, and one in which his track record is fairly dismal. Photo from festiveinspire.com

Officially, Nigerian leadership's reason to postpone the election was reported this way, "The security authorities claimed that a six-week military operation against the radical Islamist group Boko Haram, which is being conducted in the northeast of the country, was scheduled to begin on the same day as the election, leaving an inadequate security presence for voters in the rest of the country." President Jonathan's internal critics and political rivals for the presidency have called into question the postponement of the presidential elections, describing the extra weeks as a way for to him consolidate and build electoral support.

President Jonathan's main challenger is General Muhammadu Buhari, described in a Feb 20 Newsweek article as a "devout Muslim, ... a former military general [who] has failed on three occasions (2003, 2007 and 2011) in his bid to return as Nigerian president since the country moved from a series of military rulers to a democratic system in 1999. He survived a Boko Haram assassination attempt last July when a suicide bomber aligned to the radical Islamist group targeted his car in the northern city of Kaduna."

Nigerian opposition leader Buhari shown here speaking in London in early February. Photo by Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters

As many are aware, Nigeria is characterized as having a Christianized southern population and a Muslim northern population. The political and military leadership over the past decades of independence have generally taken into account the two mainstream perspectives with northern representation in roles of authority when a Southern individual was in power and vice versa.

With Boko Haram now savaging regions of the country, this election has bigger consequences at stake. Essentially, who can best tackle the jihadist scourge is the leading concern (while addressing corruption stemming from managing oil revenues being the perennial issue). One of Nigeria's best known voices, Wole Soyinka, was interviewed by the BBC recently. A website, Culture Custodian describes the interview this way, "Soyinka admits that President Goodluck failed in tackling Boko Haram but that the problem began with previous governments. Soyinka asserts that General Buhari represented one of the more brutal phases of military dictatorship but that he is willing to allow him take control of the country now. He also goes on to say that Nigeria must be prepared to deal with any betrayal from its leaders as we cannot continue with the cycle of evil and irresponsibility."


Wole Soyinka, Nigerian writer and world figure, might be characterized as thinking Nigeria is caught between a rock and a hard place when considering the two presidential contenders. Photo by Tomi Idowu February 16, 2015 in culturecustodian.com

In recent days, a suddenly motivated Nigerian military has claimed advances against the Boko Haram, but Teatree wonders how much of these gains might be better characterized as pronouncements that might influence the electoral outcome. Boko Haram, for its part, has attacked villages in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger over the past weeks, regionalizing its conflict into four countries rather than just Nigeria.


By now, most of us are at least aware of Boko Haram. In a BBC summary, we can read, "Founded in 2002; Official Arabic name, Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad"; Initially focused on opposing Western education; Launched military operations in 2009 to create Islamic state; Designated a terrorist group by US in 2013; Declared a caliphate in areas it controls in 2014." A screen grab by the BBC from a video distributed from the group itself.

In any case, jihadists across northern Africa and in the Arab world have displayed their ability to bring down governments, or at the very least significantly destabilize them (Yemen, Libya are the two latest) so Nigeria's election is being watched with more than passing interest.

Uruguay benefits from humble but competent leadership

Let's take a break from the ever-increasing horrors of the jihadists(across the Arab world and in Africa), and Putin's undermining of its neighbor Ukraine.

Uruguay is a small country nestled between South American giants Brazil and Argentina. With its size similar to the US state of Washington, but with a population of just 3.4 million (half of Washington's), Uruguay does not exactly play large in world geopolitics. But it has a positive story to share.


Uruguay as a region was competed for by the two major European colonizers, Spain and Portugal who controlled Argentina and Brazil respectively. Spain gained the upper hand in the late 1800s, but the Spanish colonists and native population rose up and gained independence from Spain in 1811. Portugal made its move to occupy the country in 1817, but the Uruguayans regained independence in 1828 after a three year war. Part of the reason Uruguay was able to win against two superpowers of the day is that there was little apparent wealth that either colonial power found worth fighting too hard for. At the same time, England and Argentina (read Spain) both found it useful to "check" Portuguese power by supporting Uruguayan independence. Independence does not usually come independently! Graphic from twitter.com

Four highlights to help understand Uruguay

First, José Gervasio Artigas is considered Uruguay's founding father, similar to George Washington for the USA. He was instrumental in playing off forces of Spain and Portugal through their colonies of Argentina and Brazil. He was committed to the concept of republicanism vs the monarchy. To enter the Uruguayan view of life and the nation's history, he is a central figure.

Second, the composition and location of Uruguay's population is interesting. Approximately half of Uruguayans live in the capital city Montevideo and much of the rest live in 25 cities spread along the coast. The sparsely inhabited interior is mainly the terrain (and it is flat) of long time cattle ranchers, and a more recent not-insignificant acreage of tree plantations. Similar to Argentina, most of the population is ethnic European, with its most historic and native Indian tribe, the Charrua, now representing just .4 percent of the population.

Third, the country's economy and delineation is connected to one of its two major rivers - the Uruguay, which empties into the the Rio Del Plata.

The Uruguay river separates Uruguay from Argentina with its major urban center Buenas Aires not that far from Montevideo. Quite an urbanized region! Graphic from www.nature.com

Fourth, Uruguay had two large pulpmills planned in 2003 that have been at the center of a dispute with its neighbor Argentina for nearly a decade. The dispute began when plans for building the pulpmills at the river's edge, apparently did not adequately address Argentina's concerns over the shared river asset, in particular possible pollution. The disagreement moved from early official protests, to street protests, to presidential phone conversations, but the completion of the first pulpmill occurred in 2007. The two nations traded changing accusations before the Organization of American States (OAS), plans for the second mill were eventually dropped, but official blockades of the river and the building of concrete walls across highways followed. The simmering dispute over the operating pulpmill led to the eventual involvement of the Catholic Church as "dialogue facilitators," followed by appeals and opinions presented to the World Bank, the European Union, and MERCOSUR .


The disputed pulpmill under construction in 2006. Photo from www.talouselama.fi


One of the blockades involving the pulpmill. This one is on an international highway linking Gualeguaychu in Argentina and Fray Bentos, Uruguay where the pulpmill is situated. Photo from www.washingtonpost.com

The International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands ruled in Uruguay's favor at one point noting that while Uruguay did not inform Argentina adequately regarding the pulpmill operations, in fact, fears over pollution were not valid as the mill was meeting all international standards. The conflict only ended in 2010, during the presidencies of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Argentina) and José Mujica (Uruguay), with the establishment of a joint coordination of the activities in the river.


In 2010, the then-new Uruguay president José Mujica made a great effort to end the dispute meeting with president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner four times in a few weeks. They subsequently signed an agreement concluding the dispute. Photo from http://en.wikipedia.org

Enter Uruguayan President Jose Mujica

From a recent article found here, we read that in March, the 79-year old president of Uruguay, Jose Mujica, finishes his five-year term . "Uruguay does not allow a president to stand for reelection, so later this spring, Mujica will take a seat in the senate. In the 60s and 70s, Mujica was a guerrilla leader, imprisoned and tortured by Uruguay’s repressive government. Freed in 1985, Mujica shed his violent past, opting instead to become the voice of pragmatism – the art of the possible. His Socialist leanings are apparent still. As president, he lives in a farmhouse with wood heat, saying it frees him from the shackles of consumerism."


From guerrilla or opposition activist to President (as many have elsewhere, including Czech Vaclav Havel, Pole Lech Walesa, Israeli Menachem Begin), Mr Mujica joins an even smaller list of stellar Presidents by all accounts. Photo montage from rafaelmartinez67.tumblr.com

From the beginning of his Presidency in 2010, he actively worked to end the tension-filled disagreement with Argentina regarding the pulpmill, and more importantly, from the article again, "on Mujica’s watch, the proportion of people living in poverty dropped from 40 percent to around 12 percent.

While many South American countries shun outside investment, local and foreign money has risen to 22 percent of GDP under Mujica. The U.N. reports that in 2014, direct foreign investment slumped by 23 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean while soaring 9 percent in Uruguay.

The World Bank ranks Uruguay ninth out of 32 countries in the region for “ease of doing business.” That is far higher than neighboring Brazil and Argentina, where nationalist policies have foiled foreign investors and local producers alike, and socialist Venezuela."


No lines of scarcity here as in Venezuela. Photo of city center and the Plaza Independencia, by www.happytellus.com

Let's savor that 40% to 12% reduction in poverty rate for a moment, something accomplished in just 5 years. It also fits in context with a series of seemingly miraculous accomplishments that were propelled, if not started by Mujica. From wikipedia, "Uruguay is ranked first in Latin America in democracy, peace, lack of corruption, quality of living,... and equally first in South America when it comes to press freedom, size of the middle class, prosperity and security. On a per capita basis, Uruguay contributes more troops to United Nations peacekeeping missions than any other country. It ranks second in the region on economic freedom, income equality, and per capita income. Uruguay is the third best country on the continent in terms of GDP growth, innovation and infrastructure.

The Economist named Uruguay "country of the year" in 2013 acknowledging the innovative policy of legalizing production, sale and consumption of cannabis. Same-sex marriage and abortion are also legal, leading Uruguay to be regarded as one of the most liberal nations in the world, and one of the most socially developed ..." Of interest for Americans, "Uruguay has no official religion; church and state are officially separated,and religious freedom is guaranteed" (This last sentence is a quote from Wikipedia.)

Finally and fittingly, Mujica's 5 year term ends as it began, with a connection to a pulpmill - in this case a "flagship" foreign investment from which the mill (Montes del Plata one of the largest in the world) was built in a free economic zone on Uruguay's Rio Del Plata at Punta Pereira. Starting operations in June 2014, the plant, which meets stringent European air and water quality standards, creates 5,000 direct and indirect jobs, with an annual payroll of over $100 million. It is also expected to contribute $844 million to Uruguay's GDP. The industry’s importance to Uruguay is equivalent to that of Boeing in Washington. (again from Brunnel's article)

The Swedish company, Stora Enso, built this one, and Teatree must admit, new pulpmills kind of look the same. (This mill and the one on the Uruguay River both get all their wood supply from sustainably managed Eucalyptus plantations.) Photo from brightmarketinsight.com

Yemen likely to revert to old kingdoms, with AQAP as the wild card

It is tempting to consider the brief and ill-fated Arab Spring as the starting point for many of the Arab nations current sad, if not tragic, state of affairs. A case in point is Yemen, the region on the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, where long standing desert tribes have ancient civilizations as their history.


Yemen, an arid and mountainous land on the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula. Current population approximately 24.5 million people. It is similar in size to the U.S state of Montana, similar even to the mountains in the west, flatter dry lands to the east. Graphic from yamanat.com

In the past week, Houthi "rebels,"which had established themselves last fall in Sanaa, the country's capital, suddenly besieged the President in his palace demanding he give further concessions regarding power and autonomy for the Houthi people. The President, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, rather than conceding, unexpectedly resigned. It leaves the country without a functioning government for the moment, with the Houthis reluctantly standing guard over the nation's instruments of power. And then, from here, the story gets quite a bit more complicated.


President Hadi, besieged by Houthi rebels, resigned - leaving a power vacuum in his country. Photo from yemenobserver.com

Hadi (Sunni) became president just four years ago in 2011 when the previous President Saleh (Shia-Houthi), who had been in power for 33 years, left office due to protests seeking more democratic participation - part of the brief Arab Spring. Hadi obtained backing from Western powers, including the U.S., who were seeking themselves to prevent the country from descending further into chaos.

The unrest was from two sources: the north Yemen based Houthis - a Shiite tribal alliance - seeking better governance (notwithstanding Saleh's Shia roots), and the other source coming the well known Sunni extremist group - Al qaeda.


Yemen has a religious/ethnic split with the Houthi-Shiite affiliation in the Northwest mountainous region, while Sunni-affiliated tribes are found in the South and East regions, as well as along the coastline.

While the Al qaeda jihadists are relatively new, the Houthi-Sunni divide is long standing (but complicated). In fact, though, the ethnic split falls fairly cleanly along a border where Yemen was recently two separate nations.

We find that 1962 the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen was a Communist state in the southern and eastern provinces of the present-day Republic of Yemen. It united with the Yemen Arab Republic (commonly known as "North Yemen") in May 1990, to form the present-day Yemen. (Yes, the demise of the People's Republic occurred in conjunction with the Soviet collapse). In 1994, however, South Yemen declared its secession from the north, and the north occupied south Yemen after a brief civil war. There has been turmoil ever since, corruption and misgovernance, and eventually the Arab Spring protests.


These two countries made up what is currently today's Yemen. They existed from 1962 to 1990 before reuniting. Graphic from commons.wikimedia.org

Spring forward 20 years, however, and now the Sunni-based extremist movement (Al qaeda on the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) has found space to grow and fight. In 2004, the Shia-oriented Houthi youth movement emerged and has since rapidly grown into a militarily capable force. In the fall of 2014, the Houthi's gained control of Sanaa at the invitation of President Hadi in order to cleanse the capital of a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, but the movement never left, and were present with the official Yemeni armed forces. The troubled country now has three defacto power centers - though the western backed government and loyal forces per se is at the moment absent.


Not exactly progress. Now in 2015, instead of two entities, there are three centers of power. Light yellow/green - Houthis; Pink - Western backed Hadi - now resigned; Gray - Al qaeda (AQAP)Graphic from wikimedia.org

These days, Shia groups have the backing of Iran, and other Sunni nations are quite vocal that Iran is continuing to expand its influence across the region. It is an influence that includes the well known Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad's Syrian forces, notable allegiances among Iraq's Shia population, pockets of Shia minorities in a variety of Sunni dominated Arab nations, and now some new potential influence in Yemen. But it is probably too early to think that in Yemen Iran has cleanly moved into yet another region as it has elsewhere.

Supporters of the Shiite Muslim Houthi movement attend Eid al-Adha prayers, in Sanaa October 4, 2014. (File Photo: Reuters)

Where does this country go from here?

The Houthis are an unknown as to their ultimate allegiance and goals. For a group who have found themselves in charge in the absence of a functioning government, it may be they are primarily concerned with their own tribal region. Though the Shiite roots are real, and Iran has been steadfast in promoting its side of the religious schism, observers are unsure how compliant this Yemeni Shiite offshoot will behave.

An alarabiya news agency story reports, "The Houthis (also known as Ansar Allah, or Partisans of God) belong to the Zaydi school of Shiite Islam, named after Imam Zaydi Ibn Ali, who led a revolt in the eighth century against the Umayyad Caliphs.

Although considered a branch of Shiite Islam, the Zaydis are sometimes referred to as the Sunnis of the Shiites. Why? Because there are substantial differences between the Shiite Twelver imamate doctrine that is dominant in Iran and Zaydism, whereas the doctrinal gap between Zaydism and mainstream Sunni Islam is relatively narrow." (The article in question can be found here.)

While the world watches, diplomats talk their specialized language, and various nations and powers fret and negotiate secretly, the Houthis are nonetheless the ones that must now be approached. And while their connection to the regional power Iran is unclear, their popular slogans are wearily familiar: "Allah is the greatest. Death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews, victory to Islam".


Houthi armed vehicle stands guard at a checkpoint in front of Presidential Palace. Photo from CNN

Then there is still that other movement - the AQAP - in Yemen. AQAP has claimed responsibility for the recent jihadist attacks in France, and the U.S. has long conducted a program of drone strikes against them in Yemen.

In any case, the road to stability in this torn nation is a long one, a path that might not be followed at all, the country may yet return to a prior set of borders - two kingdoms, but this time more fractured and violent than ever.

Still, enough with the text. Since most of us won't make a trip to this corner of the globe, here are a few pictures of its striking scenery ...


Breathtaking views from ancient villages. Think of the care and effort of previous generations to terrace the landscape and build dwellings by hand, though now thereon lies the carelessly discarded plastic and paper litter of modernity. Photo from forums.roro44.com


Sanaa - capital of Yemen. Photo from www.skyscrapercity.com


A rather foreboding headline from the NY Times article containing this landscape, "Is Yemen the next Afghanistan?" Photo from www.nytimes.com


Yemeni's next generation faces an uncertain future. Photo from www.usaid.gov

Venezuela stumbles as poor leadership and cheap oil take their toll

Venezuela may soon become the world's first nation in 2015 to see its government and economy implode. The South American country, led by Hugo Chavez for 15 years from 1998 to 2013 (with all the controversy the man brought on the world stage) is heavily dependent on its oil industry and the revenues it brings. Those revenues also allowed Chavez to champion socialism in his nation, and create economic alliances with other socialist-leaning or communist nations in the Western Hemisphere, though Teatree believes it fair to say, that simple anti-US and anti-capitalist perspectives provided most of the heat for these groupings.

Venezuela - with a population approaching 30 million people, immense oil reserves and therefore potential wealth for the whole nation (if distributed justly as in the case of Norway), high and untrammeled biodiversity across its landscape, and an avowed socialist governance for the past 16 years - should really be something of a powerhouse and inspiration to the world, and yet ... Graphic from davidjlynch.com

Unfortunately, today, Venezuela is teetering as oil revenues have plunged in the past six months, corruption remains rampant, and its leader (handpicked by Chavez and propped up in power by the few benefiting from the power-structure status quo), unable to articulate a pragmatic path forward.

President Maduro, to be fair, is in over his head, and chained to the ideology and memory of Hugo Chavez. As wikipedia notes, "A former bus driver, Maduro rose to become a trade union leader, before being elected to the National Assembly in 2000. He was appointed to a number of positions within the Venezuelan Government under Chávez, ultimately being made Foreign Minister in 2006. He was described during this time as the "most capable administrator and politician of Chávez's inner circle"."

Maduro was Venezuela's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2006 to 2013 and Vice President of Venezuela from 2012 to 2013. With his main asset being supportive of Hugo Chavez who in turn was able to talk big because oil prices were high and revenue flowing in, it was a very narrow base upon which to lead the nation on Maduro's own (about 95 percent of the money Venezuela earns from exports comes from its oil sales, according to an AP article on January 16).

As President, Maduro spent 2013 and the first half of 2014 making bombastic speeches in the form of "Hugo Chavez-isms," and even created a Ministry of Happiness. Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk

In the past six months, however, since oil prices have plunged, Maduro is confronting an increasingly dire range of options. For most of January, Maduro has gone on a world circling trip visiting nations that might lend him substantial funds to cover the lost oil revenues. He has visited Russia to meet with President Putin. In China, he secured a $20 billion infusion of Chinese investments, and in Qatar, he announced a new financial alliance. Maduro also stopped in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, but with not a great deal to show for it.

Returning home, Maduro received the equivalent of a ticker-tape parade organized by his supporters, even though while traveling, his government had to implement a new rationing system to curb out-of-control lines at stores. In addition, young protesters began blockading streets and opposition leaders were loudly calling for immediate change.

Another AP article reports, "Venezuela is seeing lines unheard of even in this shortage-plagued nation, with people lining up overnight to buy necessities like soap, milk and diapers. The state has deployed military guards to maintain order as stocks run low after long winter holidays.


A man leaves a private supermarket with disposable diapers, the long line are those waiting for their turn to shop. Photo from (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Many items have become impossible to find even on the thriving black market. At least one upscale Caracas hotel is no longer providing laundry service unless guests bring their own detergent. ...

Food Security Czar Carlos Osorio drew jeers last week when he said that the existence of long lines proved that Venezuela has plenty of food. Otherwise, he said, there would be nothing to line up for."


For those unable to afford shopping at private supermarkets, there are government supermarkets where prices are capped. This is a line near the Petare shantytown in Caracas, Venezuela. Apparently this line represents "success" for Venezuela's government, as there must be something in the store to buy ...

Beyond the immediate scarcities and unrest, there are those pesky loans already taken out by Venezuela, and payments are coming due. Default on a variety of financial instruments looms. And where it all ends, in this nation with enormous potential wealth, no one knows.

But let's end on a positive note - leaving behind the long lines that give testimony to scarcity and corruption in urban Venezuela, a couple pictures of the country's southern and western regions.


The website www.climatestotravel.com observes, "in the state of Bolìvar, we find the huge Canaima National Park, which is generally more humid and has greener landscapes; here we find incredible waterfalls like Salto Angel, 3,212 feet (979 meters) high, and Salto Kukenan, 2,211 feet (674 meters) high."


In Western Venezuela, the Andes mountains can be found, providing the contrast to the steamy jungles and plateaus in places such as the Canaima National Park. Photo from http://venezuela-pr.com/