Historic boundaries and historic injustices

Perhaps it is fitting during this week when the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide is being commemorated, that we note the recent words of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a film celebrating his 15 years in power (finally the pretense of his swapping the post of Presidency with his aide Medvedev for that of prime minister in order to circumvent the term limits on the Presidency has been cast aside), Mr. Putin yesterday stated, "It's not because Crimea has a strategic importance in the Black Sea region. It's because this has elements of historical justice. I believe we did the right thing and I don't regret anything,"


Mr Putin, soon to be in a hagiographic film starring himself. Photo from gblor.ru

What historic injustice did Putin put right in the annexation of the Crimean peninsula?

Depending on how far back one wishes to go, we might consider the three centuries of rule under the Ottoman empire in the 15th to 18th centuries, followed by Tsarist Russia annexing it in 1783. Soon after the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 was finally secured, it declared the peninsula a Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1945 it became a Soviet oblast (province), and in 1954 was ceded to Ukraine. Those elusive and fleeting years when Russia and the Ukraine were ostensibly equal allies, the Russians maintained a Black Sea fleet based in the port capital of Sevastopol, Crimea, and Black Sea resorts allowed Russian and Soviet elite a respite at a warm ice-free setting for their holidays.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is based on the Crimean Peninsula. Photo from beforeitsnews.com

As the USSR collapsed in the early 1990s, the Crimean peninsula remained part of Ukraine until the latest upheaval in 2014 when Ukraine began to lean towards the West. Judging the West as lacking in resolve, Mr Putin and his green little men took over the peninsula and declared it part of Mother Russia once again and now we are up to date. Teatree assumes it was the unilateral decision by the Soviet politboro of 1954 to give the land to Ukraine that Mr Putin refers to as an historic injustice, though there are other possibilities.


Putin has always rejected the idea that these "green men" without official army insignias that suddenly showed up in eastern Ukraine were Russian. In the Crimea, Putin maintained the same story for a few months, but then conceded the obvious after the trumped up referendum that showed the majority of voters wanted to reunite with Mother Russia. Photo from www.independent.ie

One of the historic ethnic groups living on the Crimean peninsula were Muslim Tatars, comprising up to 25% of the population. After the Crimean War of 1853-1856 between the Tsarist Russia and Western powers fighting over the weakening Ottoman Empire,the tatars had to flee en masse to avoid persecution by the Russian victors who had ultimately maintained control. During the Bolshevik revolution of 1917-21 which devolved into a multi-year Russian civil war, the peninsula and its population was ravaged by multiple factions. The tatars who had filtered back to their native lands were ravaged once again in the 1930s by Soviet leader Stalin, who also introduced large numbers of Slavs into the region. In another irony, from 1923 into the second world war, there were efforts to move Soviet Jewry into the land, with one soviet functionary, Vyacheslav Molotov, even suggesting the idea of establishing a Jewish homeland.


The Crimean peninsula juts out into the Black Sea - it has changed hands and loyalties many times. Russian President Putin now claims it with the extra stamp of righting an historic injustice. Graphic from goodcounsel.blogspot.com

From a posting at the worldjewishlibrary, we read, "The Crimean peninsula was, for decades, a potential Jewish homeland. After Catherine the Great conquered Crimea from the Ottomons in 1783, she encouraged Jewish settlement to the region. In the following century, tens of thousands of predominantly young Jews moved to this part of "New Russia." By the late 1800s, Crimea had become a thriving training center for future Zionist pioneers who used the land to test agricultural techniques before they relocated to Palestine. In fact, Joseph Trumpeldor once trained potential migrants in the Crimea. The Soviet Politburo was even behind the idea and accepted a proposal to establish a Jewish Autonomous Region in the Crimea in 1923, though it later reversed the decision. Even so, from 1924 until 1938, the Joint Distribution Committee - through the American Jewish Joint Agricultural Corporation and its American Jewish financiers - supported Jewish agricultural settlements in Soviet Crimea."

At any rate, World War II brought savage fighting to the peninsula between German and Russian forces. Germany wanted the land for its strategic value and its warmer agricultural climate, and occupied it for nearly three years. Jews here, as well as in Ukraine were targeted for annihilation during that time. The Soviet army recaptured the capital city, Sevastopol, in 1944, and Stalin immediately ordered the entire population of Crimean Tatars forcibly deported to Central Asia as collective punishment for allegedly collaborating with the Nazis. Only late in the Soviet empire's existence were the tatars politically rehabilitated and allowed to return to what was now an ethnically slavic region with Ukrainian and Russian populations.


Crimean tatars loading up for exile after World War II, photo from flb.ru

In 2014, with Russian forces suddenly in charge once again on the peninsula, the tatars who had returned or remained were facing a dispiriting, though not unfamiliar dilemma. Embrace Russia or leave your homeland. An al-jazeera article captures the new plight in detail, found here.

Once again, Crimean tatars, shown here in their mosques, have been told that they must embrace Russia or face consequences. While they were neglected by Ukraine's government, they still had enjoyed relative freedom. Photo from www.theguardian.com

So on we go - the number of historic injustices are plentiful, many have been inadequately addressed, and many ignored. And Putin, like other strongmen of the past, has chosen to pick a particular slight but primarily to further his own power and influence.

Venezuela stumbles as poor leadership and cheap oil take their toll

Venezuela may soon become the world's first nation in 2015 to see its government and economy implode. The South American country, led by Hugo Chavez for 15 years from 1998 to 2013 (with all the controversy the man brought on the world stage) is heavily dependent on its oil industry and the revenues it brings. Those revenues also allowed Chavez to champion socialism in his nation, and create economic alliances with other socialist-leaning or communist nations in the Western Hemisphere, though Teatree believes it fair to say, that simple anti-US and anti-capitalist perspectives provided most of the heat for these groupings.

Venezuela - with a population approaching 30 million people, immense oil reserves and therefore potential wealth for the whole nation (if distributed justly as in the case of Norway), high and untrammeled biodiversity across its landscape, and an avowed socialist governance for the past 16 years - should really be something of a powerhouse and inspiration to the world, and yet ... Graphic from davidjlynch.com

Unfortunately, today, Venezuela is teetering as oil revenues have plunged in the past six months, corruption remains rampant, and its leader (handpicked by Chavez and propped up in power by the few benefiting from the power-structure status quo), unable to articulate a pragmatic path forward.

President Maduro, to be fair, is in over his head, and chained to the ideology and memory of Hugo Chavez. As wikipedia notes, "A former bus driver, Maduro rose to become a trade union leader, before being elected to the National Assembly in 2000. He was appointed to a number of positions within the Venezuelan Government under Chávez, ultimately being made Foreign Minister in 2006. He was described during this time as the "most capable administrator and politician of Chávez's inner circle"."

Maduro was Venezuela's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2006 to 2013 and Vice President of Venezuela from 2012 to 2013. With his main asset being supportive of Hugo Chavez who in turn was able to talk big because oil prices were high and revenue flowing in, it was a very narrow base upon which to lead the nation on Maduro's own (about 95 percent of the money Venezuela earns from exports comes from its oil sales, according to an AP article on January 16).

As President, Maduro spent 2013 and the first half of 2014 making bombastic speeches in the form of "Hugo Chavez-isms," and even created a Ministry of Happiness. Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk

In the past six months, however, since oil prices have plunged, Maduro is confronting an increasingly dire range of options. For most of January, Maduro has gone on a world circling trip visiting nations that might lend him substantial funds to cover the lost oil revenues. He has visited Russia to meet with President Putin. In China, he secured a $20 billion infusion of Chinese investments, and in Qatar, he announced a new financial alliance. Maduro also stopped in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, but with not a great deal to show for it.

Returning home, Maduro received the equivalent of a ticker-tape parade organized by his supporters, even though while traveling, his government had to implement a new rationing system to curb out-of-control lines at stores. In addition, young protesters began blockading streets and opposition leaders were loudly calling for immediate change.

Another AP article reports, "Venezuela is seeing lines unheard of even in this shortage-plagued nation, with people lining up overnight to buy necessities like soap, milk and diapers. The state has deployed military guards to maintain order as stocks run low after long winter holidays.


A man leaves a private supermarket with disposable diapers, the long line are those waiting for their turn to shop. Photo from (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Many items have become impossible to find even on the thriving black market. At least one upscale Caracas hotel is no longer providing laundry service unless guests bring their own detergent. ...

Food Security Czar Carlos Osorio drew jeers last week when he said that the existence of long lines proved that Venezuela has plenty of food. Otherwise, he said, there would be nothing to line up for."


For those unable to afford shopping at private supermarkets, there are government supermarkets where prices are capped. This is a line near the Petare shantytown in Caracas, Venezuela. Apparently this line represents "success" for Venezuela's government, as there must be something in the store to buy ...

Beyond the immediate scarcities and unrest, there are those pesky loans already taken out by Venezuela, and payments are coming due. Default on a variety of financial instruments looms. And where it all ends, in this nation with enormous potential wealth, no one knows.

But let's end on a positive note - leaving behind the long lines that give testimony to scarcity and corruption in urban Venezuela, a couple pictures of the country's southern and western regions.


The website www.climatestotravel.com observes, "in the state of Bolìvar, we find the huge Canaima National Park, which is generally more humid and has greener landscapes; here we find incredible waterfalls like Salto Angel, 3,212 feet (979 meters) high, and Salto Kukenan, 2,211 feet (674 meters) high."


In Western Venezuela, the Andes mountains can be found, providing the contrast to the steamy jungles and plateaus in places such as the Canaima National Park. Photo from http://venezuela-pr.com/

Hungary and the new "Putinism"

Hungary is a relatively small country in Central Europe (similar to Maine in the US), with a population of nearly 10 million. Its current modest size and numbers belies its influential history as part of a major European empire from 1867-1918.


Hungary today is small, but has a unique history within Europe complete with a distinctive ethnicity and language (called Magyar). From the BBC, "Hungary traces its history back to the Magyars, an alliance of semi-nomadic tribes from southern Russia and the Black Sea coast that arrived in the region in the ninth century." Graphic from www.hotelonlinehungary.com


Hungary as part of the Austria-Hungary empire reached into every neighboring state for 50 years. Graphic from www.pinterest.com

A short review of modern history.

After World War 1, the empire which had fought with Germany against Western allies, was dismembered, and after World War II, in which its leaders sided with the Axis powers (albeit fitfully and at times under great coercive pressure), was swallowed up as a Soviet satellite. All in all, a remarkably poor set of choices in the two wars, and a bitter consequence under Communist rule for another 50 plus years.

To the credit of Hungarian people, they rebelled against Communist rule in 1956, though the movement was crushed. The ripples of defiance were felt again in 1968 in neighboring Czechoslovakia with its "Prague Spring" (a term applied to the short lived "Arab Spring" seen in several Arab nations another 45 years later). But only after 1991, was Hungary able to develop a modern Western style democracy, free market economy, and become a member of both the European Union and NATO.

Budapest, Hungary's capitol, is one of the larger cities in the EU, and straddles the Danube river (Buda on one side, Pest on the other). It now thrives as a financial hub along with being one of the most visited tourist destinations in Europe. Photo from telegraph.co.uk

And the story of Putinism being coined as a term linked with Hungary?

Since the worldwide recession in 2008, Europe as a whole has suffered with stagnant economies, high unemployment, and financial strife among neighbors. Hungary has been no exception, but what has emerged in the past few years, under the leadership of its 3rd term Prime Minister, Victor Orban, is a government increasingly skeptical of Western values and abilities, and increasingly sympathetic to Russian President Putin's assertiveness and nationalism.


Young Mr Orban in 1998 at the age of 35, less than a decade after Communist rule, began his first term as the Prime Minister of Hungary. Photo from fenteslent.blog.hu

Mr Orban leads the national conservative ruling party Fidesz. At 35, in 1998, Orban became the second youngest prime minister of Hungary. In 2002, he sat in opposition in the parliament for eight years. In 2010, he again took the reins of Prime Minister for a second term, and made some controversial changes to Hungary's constitution that created conflict with the larger framework of the European Union. In April 2014, Orban's party won a new round of parliamentary elections, giving him a formal 3rd term as Prime Minister, though with increasing concerns from other European heads.

Orban now openly muses over the relative attractiveness of Russian President Putin's assertiveness and nationalism (seen in Putin's popularity over his actions with Ukraine) to what he perceives as weakness and timidity of the West. As a recent New York Times article describes it, "Vladimir V. Putin’s combative nationalism is more popular here than what many see as Western democratic sclerosis."

The NYT article continues, "In a speech this summer, Mr. Orban declared liberal democracy to be in decline and praised authoritarian “illiberal democracies” in Turkey, China, Singapore and Russia. He traced his views to what he portrayed as the failures of Western governments to anticipate and deal adequately with the financial crisis that started in 2008 and the ensuing deep recession. He called that period the fourth great shock of the past century — the others being World War I, World War II and the end of the Cold War — and the impetus for what he called today’s key struggle: “a race to invent a state that is most capable of making a nation successful. ... Hungary, he said, will be “breaking with the dogmas and ideologies that have been adopted by the West” and will instead build a “new Hungarian state” that will be “competitive in the great global race for decades to come.””


Orban today, shaking hands with apparent new enthusiasm for Russian President Putin. Photo from www.huffingtonpost.

It is a former German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, who refers to Orban as “the only Putinist governing in the European Union ...”

While the NY Times predictably leans hostile towards nationalistic views, even the conservative magazine, The Economist writes, "Mr Orban’s centralisation of power has drawn protests from the European Union, America’s State Department and human-rights groups. Corruption has worsened, says Transparency International, a watchdog. More than a third of the population live at or below the poverty line. The situation of the Roma, the largest minority in the country, remains as parlous as ever. In Miskolc a slum-clearance programme has made many homeless.

Mr Orban outlined his longer-term vision in a much-noted speech on July 26th in Baile Tusnade, in neighbouring Romania. Hungary, he explained, would become an “illiberal state”. Speaking admiringly of Russia, China and Turkey, he said Hungary would remain a democracy, and not reject liberal principles such as freedom of speech, but would be based on “a different, special, national approach”. The approach, say critics, was evident earlier this month when police raided the Budapest office of Okotars, an NGO that manages funds from Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein, and confiscated computers and documents for alleged financial mismanagement. Okotars strongly denies the charge. The police raid was “completely unacceptable”, thundered Vidar Helgesen, Norway’s minister for Europe."

Cartoon in The Economist article of September 27, 2014, titled "Orban the Unstoppable."

A voice from the past, Mikhail Gorbachev himself said at a recent 25 year commemoration of the fall of the Berlin wall, that a new cold war may be emerging, in part due to Western triumphalism against Russia when it was at its weakest in the 1990s, coupled with an inability to cope via vigorous and meaningful dialogue to solve conflicts ranging from Syria in the Middle East to Ukraine in eastern Europe.


Mikhail Gorbachev, now 83, being interviewed while marking the fall of the Berlin Wall (Brandenburg Gate in the background). Photo from The Guardian UK

So, not all is well in Europe, a muscular nationalism is re-emerging in a number of countries. This new perspective brings with it rising ethnic tensions and a distrust or skepticism regarding, perhaps not the ideals of the European Union, but the willingness of said EU to effectively implement those ideals, or even defend and promote them.

Apparently Putin's unilateral land grabs in this post Cold War age have sparked admiration not only condemnation. Not exactly what most people expected after the collapse of Communism 25 years ago as the Berlin Wall came down.

The Ukranian revolution continues ...

The last two weeks in Ukraine have been dramatic and well covered in the world media. It isn't often to see a capital city torn up, dozens killed, the pro-Russian President ultimately leaving for a more friendly and secure headquarters in the country's east, and a stunning reversal where a former Prime Minister is suddenly released from prison with Parliamentary approval after languishing on trumped-up charges for nearly two and one-half years.

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Destruction in Ukraine's capital city Kiev was well documented - streets torn up for the stones to throw, but later plenty of gunfire that ended up killing more than 70 citizens - both protesters and police. Photo from www.rawstory.com

With the drama paralleling the two week run of the Olympics in Sochi, Russia in terms of media coverage and world interest, Teatree assumes that the Ukranian developments represent just the latest chapter in a long running history of tension, with a return to some sense of normalcy still to be seen.

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Ukraine's modern boundaries, it must be emphasized, are just the current version of a land who has been sliced and diced among several larger empires over the past several hundred years. Today's Ukraine also has a population of just under 46 million people, noticeably less than the 52 million residing in 1991 when the Soviet Union broke apart. For further reading, probe the European traditions of Lviv, the major city in Western Ukraine, with that of Kharkviv, a major city in Eastern Ukraine. Graphic from orientalreview.org

As Canada's National Post reported Saturday, "KYIV, Ukraine — Hours after her release from prison, former Ukrainian prime minister and opposition icon Yulia Tymoshenko appeared before an ecstatic throng at the protester encampment in Ukraine’s capital Saturday, praising the demonstrators killed in violence this week and urging the protesters to keep occupying the square.

Her speech to the crowd of about 50,000, made from a wheelchair because of the severe back problems she suffered in 2 1/2 years of imprisonment, was the latest stunning development in the fast-moving Ukrainian political crisis.

Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaking to Kiev crowd after her release from prison. Interesting to think that she has come from a prison in Kharkviv, while the ousted president Yanukovych is headed there for relative security. Photo from www.newsfiber.com

Only a day earlier, her arch-rival, President Viktor Yanukovych, signed an agreement with protest leaders that cut his powers and called for early elections. Parliament, once controlled by Yanukovych supporters, quickly thereafter voted to decriminalize the abuse-of-office charge for which Tymoshenko was convicted.

Yanukovych meanwhile appeared to be losing power by the hour. He decamped from Kyiv to Kharkiv, a city in his support base in eastern Ukraine, while protesters took control of the presidential administration building and thousands of curious and contemptuous Ukrainians roamed the suddenly open grounds of the lavish compound outside Kyiv where he was believed to live.

In Kharkiv, Yanukovych defiantly declared that he regarded parliament’s actions as invalid and bitterly likened the demonstrators who conducted three months of protests against him to Nazis. “Everything that is happening today is, to a greater degree, vandalism and banditry and a coup d’etat,” he said. “I will do everything to protect my country from breakup, to stop bloodshed.”

President Viktor Yanukovych, appearing to have lost political support in the nation's capital has moved to a more secure city just miles from the Russian border Photo from dev.rpp.com.pe

Finally, on Sunday, the Ukraine Parliament (invalid according to President Yanukovych) also stripped Yanukovych of his position, and appointed an interim president until elections could be held - possibly by May. The new leadership promptly indicated their preference to orient the country towards the EU, with neighborly relations with Russia, and a new government will likely be installed in the next few days.

Photo and caption from NBC news, "Newly elected Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov speaks during a session of the Ukrainian Parliament in Kiev, Ukraine, 23 February 2014. Ukraine's parliament voted to appoint its speaker Oleksandr Turchynov as interim president and he will temporarily take over the duties of Viktor Yanukovych, whose whereabouts remained unknown."

Ukraine since the breakup of the Soviet Union

Since the Soviet breakup in 1991, the politics in the Ukraine have coalesced around a sizable pro-Russian segment and the majority wishing to orient towards Western Europe. In 2004, after more than a decade of decline and uncertainty, an Orange Revolution briefly brought to power western leaning leadership, including Yulia Tymoshenko, but in 2010, after further stagnation and unsure leadership, Viktor Yanukovych won a disputed election and quickly created an oppressive state leaning towards Russia, then engineered charges and a trial that placed his major rival Tymoshenko in prison.

As a BBC article describes those years, crucial economic decisions were made regarding the country's dependence on Russian natural gas as well as Russian military presence at its bases on the Crimean peninsula. These agreements set the seeds for further tensions. "In 2006, Ukraine was forced to agree to pay almost twice the former price for Russian gas after Russia briefly to cut supplies in a move that sparked alarm in western Europe as well. In January 2009, Russia again cut gas supplies in a row over unpaid fees."

A visual from a UK Telegraph article noted that one of the first items Yanukovych negotiated in 2010 on his ascendance to power was an agreement to allow Russia continued use (to the year 2042) of its Crimean Peninsula navy bases. In the graphic, the pipeline symbolizes the Ukrainian need for Russian natural gas, and Russia's linked interest in secure naval bases. The Crimean peninsula itself has a particularly complicated history - belonging to several entities over the years, and even unique within Ukraine as an autonomous oblast (equivalent to more familiar province, state, or prefectures).

The Ukraine tension but the most recent of several legacy issues of the former Soviet Union

The Soviet Union could be compared to other former empires that have broken up. Once broken, there are legacy regions still in play for decades to come - in the past we've discussed Kaliningrad, an exclave of Russians south of the three Baltic nations. In addition to the turmoil in Ukraine on Russia's southern border, there are two other recent hotspots. One happens to be just a few miles to the southeast from now-famous Sochi Russia, in the small country of Georgia. Here, the northwestern most province called Azbhakia has moved towards association with Russia. Further to the east, still in Georgia, is South Ossetia, also now in the Russian sphere of influence. In the latter case, Russian military might was a determining factor in a short conflict in 2008 resulting in South Ossetia's current status as in partnership with Russia.

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Interestingly, Sochi Russia, site of the 2014 winter Olympics, is just miles from a breakaway province of Georgia, which has been given recognition and support by Russia. South Ossetia is further to the east. Graphic from www.ft.com

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The Black Sea - Yalta, where Stalin, Churchill, Roosevelt framed the ending scenarios and agreements for a post WWII Europe; Sevastapol Ukraine, site of major Russian naval base; Sochi, Russia, winter Olympics, 2014; Azbhakia, Georgia, supported by Russia as in its sphere; Ukraine, split down the middle, and even Moldova's eastern slice on the other side of a river - Trans-Dniester, treats itself as independent and pro Russian.

Trans-Dniester (literally "across the Dneister" river), is an example of an impoverished enclave of a half million, longing for the shelter of Mother Russia's arms. (A common description, not Teatree's characterization.) Graphic from www.visionofgoodhope.co.uk

Random thoughts

It occurs to Teatree that Ukraine as just one example of ethnic/historic tensions where disparate forces work to pull apart a modern nation. And, in point of fact, there are also many examples of small regions around the world isolated from former association with past empires.

Much of Africa is the most common example, where dozens of countries still struggle with ethnic tensions - the legacy of arbitrarily imposed borders by European colonizers 130 years ago. Ukraine is one of several remaining trouble spots of the recent Soviet Empire. Another striking example is the Falkland Islands just off the coast of Argentina. Argentina declared sovereignty over those islands in 1982, the islanders objected, and the UK said no as well, resulting in a short war between the two countries. To this day, the population of just a little over 2000 remains a part of the United Kingdom at their own preference, much to the chagrin of Argentina, and possibly a headache for the UK.

Ukraine still pulled east and west

Ukraine is a country of nearly 45 million, located in Eastern Europe. As one of the larger countries in the old Soviet bloc, it has remained torn in terms of geopolitics after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Whereas the Baltic States, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and several others have all oriented themselves towards Western Europe, this country has never made the jump. It, along with Belarus, have maintained trading and political ties with Russia, though Ukraine's population has steadily indicated its preference to look to the West.

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Ukraine's ambivalence towards both Russia and Western Europe is greatly influenced by its location. It and Belarus have common borders with Russia and farthest from the historic Western European countries who were the original founders of the European Union. Graphic from www.feriasalimentarias.com

Ukraine made the news this week with another outburst of protests and political tension. What was supposed to be a signing of trade and financial agreements as a first move towards membership with the European Union, turned into a row, then street protests after Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovich - swayed by threats or inducements from Russian President Putin - pulled back from the step.

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Ukraine President Yanukovich again facing massive unrest. He was driven from power the first time in December 2004 during the "Orange Revolution." During the run for the Presidency in 2004, he was accused being involved with poisoning a political rival, Viktor Yushchenko, as well as the more recent jailing of another rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, which has been deemed illegal by the EU. Photo from blogs.ft.com

The history of Ukraine since the Soviet breakup in 1991 has been mainly ugly, with tainted and divisive elections, along with poisonings and imprisonment for two high profile Presidential candidates that have the fingerprints of Yanakovich supporters if not personal. Still, Yanukovich has leveraged his core support that lies to the east of the nation into the seat of power over the past 11 years beginning with his first appointment to Prime Minister in 2002. (See the post Ukraine, Poland, football and boycotts on May 5, 2012)

This map, from www.sras.org/ukraine, shows support for Russia, and thus for leaders supporting that tie, in shades of blue

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Street protests against Yanukovich's decision to "look east" to Russia, Photo from worldnews.nbcnews.com

While Yanukovich has little support in Western nations, and is viewed as corrupt and oppressive, the painful truth is that Russia's President Putin made it clear to Ukraine that signing agreements with the EU would mean immediate and severe reduction of trade and vital energy supplies with Russia. And because Russia structured the economies of most of its satellite nations during Communism to support the mother country's needs, the infrastructure in these newly liberated countries remain susceptible to Russian influence.

Expect continued turmoil in this large eastern European nation.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/iraq-death-toll-grows-as-security-deteriorates-20131201-2yjgu.html

Ecuador makes the international spotlight

Ecuador,
graphic from http://wwwnc.cdc.gov

Ecuador is a South American country of 15 million people bordering the Pacific Ocean. It's major claim to fame stems from its world-renowned Galápagos Islands, over 600 miles west from the mainland.

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The Galapagos Islands, treasured for the isolated and unique varieties of animals and birds found here. Photo from www.cntraveller.com

The Republic of Ecuador (which apparently in Spanish literally means "the Republic of the Equator") is also known for its capital city, Quito, situated high in the Andes (2300 metres or 9350 ft), being the highest of any national capital.

Quito, Ecuador's capital city (nice shot taken from the blog of an architect http://dcv2hk.wordpress.com/). In the background is the world's highest (and active) volcano, Cotopaxi, and in the foreground, the striking Basilica del Voto Nacional.

Ecuador is a South American country that, like Peru, climbs precipitously from the Pacific to the spine of the Andes mountains, and then plunges further east back to low level jungle - the headwaters of the Amazon river. The country depends on its eastern low-elevation oil and gas deposits to drive its economy, a smaller mining industry sector in the mountains, and more important shrimp processing and flower raising industry sectors in the west.

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Geography makes for a challenge in unifying the country's economy with distribution of wealth among the disparate regions. Graphic from http://www.greenheaventours.com/aboutecuador.htm

Ecuador's recent political history brings it into tension with the US, Europe, and free market capitalism

Ecuador's current president, Rafael Correa, heads one of several left leaning regimes on the continent. Correa was first elected in 2006, and in February 2013, was re-elected to a third term. In 2010, according to BBC reporting, his administration announced it would begin renegotiating contracts with private oil companies as it moves to increase state control over the sector. "Under a new law, the current production-sharing agreements will be replaced by a flat fee. The Ecuadorean state will own 100% of the oil and gas produced. Foreign oil firms in Ecuador, which produces an average of 470,000 barrels per day, are currently responsible for 44% of output. The new legislation stipulates that the first 25% of gross income from oil sales must go to the state."

All fine and dandy, Norway after all leads the way in making sure its oil wealth benefits its citizens, and this is similar to Brazil's Roussef's announcement last week of oil wealth being directed to the nation's education.

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Ecuador President Rafael Correa, now beginning his third term. Photo from http://www.andes.info.ec

Correa was a close ally to the late Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, and keeps Ecuador firmly within a bloc of four "indigenous socialist" nations: Bolivia, Peru, Equador, and Venezuela. With both political and economic visions noticeably different than the broad Western perspective, Ecuador has raised the antennas of its Western trading partners.

So what's the spotlight about?

First, Wikileaks, Assange, and Bradley Manning

In 2006, Wikileaks, a non-profit organization founded in Iceland, began publishing whatever it could find from secret government and business files. Its effort caught international attention in 2010, when it published thousands of documents having to do the the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 201,0 a US Army soldier in Iraq, Bradley Manning, was arrested on suspicion of having passed classified material to WikiLeaks even as the organization further riled the US by releasing State Department files on a variety of diplomatic activities. In another unexpected turn of events, Wikileaks founder, Julian Assange, was accused of rape and sexual assault by two women in Sweden, and because he was in the UK at the time, fled to the Ecuadorean embassy in London for political refuge.

Assange, Wikileaks founder, holed up in the Ecuadorean embassy in the UK, wanted by Sweden to stand trial on sexual assault charges, and by the US for questioning regarding the leaking of secret US state department files. Photo from http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk

Assange, a bit of a political left celebrity now, was granted political asylum by Ecuador, but the UK has not allowed him to fly to Ecuador, as he is wanted in Sweden. So there he has remained for just over a year, living in the Ecuadorean embassy.

The Ecuadorean Embassy in London - the media-stampede/police-protection dance, which pits individuals who've become leftist cause-celebres vs western governments. Photo by CNN

Second, enter Edward Snowden, a 29yr old employee of the US National Security Agency (NSA).

A couple weeks ago, an employee of the US National Security Agency rocked the political world by releasing information detailing the NSA's surveillance of US citizen phone records, then fleeing Hawaii where he was based, to Hong Kong. The US government requested extradition of Snowden on suspicion of espionage, but he left Hong Kong with what administration officials characterized China as "aiding and abetting" an individual wanted by the US under existing extradition agreements. Now the latest cause-celebre, Snowden ended up in Moscow, where he is apparently trapped in a legal vacuum, not officially in Russian space, but out of reach of the US law enforcement. And Russian President Putin is happily avoiding taking any action either, the second powerful country to snub the US government on the issue.

Ecuadorean reading a Spanish newspaper about Snowden stuck in airport. Photo from Christian Science Monitor

To complete a circle, Snowden has apparently been in contact with Wikileaks, whose leading officials are advising him to apply for political asylum with Ecuador ... similar to Assange, who found Ecuador to be sympathetic.

Interesting brief window in how governments pressure other governments.

In a recent CNN article, we read, "Trade between the United States and Ecuador totaled more than $16 billion last year, according to figures from the U.S. Census. About half of Ecuador's foreign trade depends on the United States. Analysts say the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act, which has allowed Ecuador to import and export goods with reduced tariffs, has fueled growth in trade and commerce between the two nations.

On Thursday, a U.S. State Department spokesman warned that Ecuador's economic ties with the United States could be in jeopardy if the South American country offers asylum to Snowden. "What would not be a good thing is them granting Mr. Snowden asylum," State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell told reporters. "That would have grave difficulties for a bilateral relationship."

And in the past couple days, Ecuador's President Correa has taken a call from US Vice President Joe Biden, who is presumably spelling out the advantages for Ecuador to not grant asylum to Snowden, as well as the above mentioned costs. Even the influential US newspaper, the Washington Post applied pressure in its own way with its June 24, 2013 editorial titled, "Snowden case highlights Ecuador’s double standard"

The article begins, "CHINA MADE a show of disrespect for the Obama administration Sunday by facilitating the flight of Edward Snowden. Russia may do the same. But when it comes to anti-American chutzpah, there’s no beating Rafael Correa, the autocratic leader of tiny, impoverished Ecuador. Mr. Correa and his foreign minister said Monday that they were considering an asylum request by Mr. Snowden. If he can find his way to South America, it appears likely that the former National Security Agency contractor would receive the same welcome as WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who has spent the past year in Ecuador’s London embassy.

Taking in Mr. Snowden would allow Mr. Correa to advance his most cherished ambition: replacing the deceased Hugo Chavez as the hemisphere’s preeminent anti-U.S. demagogue. It would thwart the Justice Department’s attempt to prosecute the fugitive American. Yet, as we see it, that all might be worth it if the case were to focus public and congressional attention on Mr. Correa’s own repression of free speech — and his attempt to set himself up as a U.S. foil even while profiting from U.S. trade preferences.

For years, Mr. Correa has been known for his prosecutions of his own country’s journalists and his attempts to destroy the Organization of American States’ office on press freedom. But this month he outdid himself: The country’s rubber-stamp legislature passed a new media law, widely known as the “gag law,” that was aptly described by the Inter-American Press Association as “the most serious setback for freedom of the press and of expression in the recent history of Latin America.”

Mr. Snowden should be particularly interested in Section 30 of the law, which bans the “free circulation, especially by means of the communications media” of information “protected under a reserve clause established by law.” The legislation empowers a new superintendent of information and communication to heavily fine anyone involved in releasing such information, even before they are prosecuted in the courts. In other words, had Mr. Snowden done his leaking in Ecuador, not just he but also any journalist who received his information would be subject to immediate financial sanction, followed by prosecution." http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-24/opinions/40164477_1_london-embassy-ecuador-andean-trade-promotion

Click on image for full picture
And the cartoons begin to flow ...Daryl Cagle, CagleCartoons.com

A few new tangents

Not to be outdone by Ecuador's Correa, Venezuela's new President Maduro has announced he's willing to give Snowden asylum.

And the European Union leadership is furious at the US over continuing revelations that the EU offices may have been bugged by the NSA.

So jump on where you wish: Correa, Assange, Biden, NSA, European Union, Bradley Manning, Obama, Hong Kong, Maduro, flower growing industry in Ecuador, US Attorney General, espionage, Putin, China, Sweden, Moscow airport, UK embassy, cause-celebre....

Putin vs a Rock Band vs the Russian Orthodox Church

Pussy Riot - the name of a Russian rock band that has shaken both the Russian political establishment and the Russian Orthodox church during the summer.

The story found its way to the world's media particularly in the past two weeks, with a trial charging three members of the Moscow-based Russian feminist punk-rock band with "hooliganism." Founded just one year ago in August 2011, this band of seven young women stages politically provocative performances about Russian political life in unusual locations - on Red Square, on top of a trolleybus, on a scaffold in the Moscow Metro, or in the most recent and notorious instance, in Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Savior.

Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Savior

The performance, according to reports, occurred in February this year. It was a reciting of what is titled, Punk Prayer, in consecrated space within this famous church, along with dance choreography. The group's targeting of President Putin in church space was motivated by their opposition to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and questions regarding the political connections of the Russian Orthodox Church. At the time, the group's actions were stopped by church security officials.

A few weeks later, in early March after a video of the performance appeared online (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALS92big4TY), three of the group members were arrested, leading to their trial five months later.

A sympathetic translation of the Punk Prayer lyrics read and shouted back in February can be read in full here ...http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/aug/20/pussy-riot-punk-prayer-lyrics?newsfeed=true but two lines are sufficient to show how the performance and words offended both the church and the Russian president.

"Virgin Mary, Mother of God, banish Putin, banish Putin,

Virgin Mary, Mother of God, banish him, we pray thee!"

Much of the Western media began to pick up on the story as the trial got underway, as the three women charged appeared in demure clothing and behavior, yet surrounded by serious Russian guards. The political theatre of the trail cage and state charges put the power of the Putin machinery on display.

The three punk band members charged are Yekaterina Samutsevich, 30, left; Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, 22 center; and Maria Alekhina, 24 right.

It comes across as poor PR when heavy duty Russian guards stand intimidatingly over three slim, young women on trial; two of whom have small toddlers ...

The upshot to date is that the three have received sentences up to two years in jail for their disturbing the church and protesting the President. During and after the trial, significant protests have taken place in Moscow, elsewhere in Russia and in other European countries. President Putin has been put on the defensive, and the Russian Orthodox Church has been called into question for its ties to the political leadership.

Celebrities around the world, both respected and not so much, have jumped on the bandwagon. Gary Kasparov, Russian chess-playing icon has been arrested in Russia, and lo, even world-citizen, NY-based Madonna has cried out regarding the injustice of it all.

Kasparov, heading here to jail, may be soon on trial himself on charges of biting a police officer while protesting on behalf the the band

Madonna, wearing a jacket style often worn by Pussy Riot, is outraged over fellow pop stars in trouble.

From the Washington Post, we can read with some eyeball-rolling commentary regarding Madonna's outrage, but also a glimpse into the larger implications. "When the human rights activist Natalia Estimerova was murdered three years ago in Chechnya, she [Madonna] was silent. Nor did her Web site register the death of journalist Anna Politkovskaya in 2006. The fate of three fellow pop stars, however, is clearly different — and it is precisely that difference that poses an unusual challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Although it is often assumed otherwise, Putin’s regime has long permitted political dissent — so long as it appeals only to a small elite. Although most television stations are controlled in one way or another by the Kremlin, a few low-circulation newspapers have long been allowed to keep up some criticism. Although anyone with real potential to oppose Putin was put under financial or judicial pressure — or, in some cases, arrested or murdered — other critics have been allowed to keep talking, as long as too many people aren’t listening. The Internet is controlled in Russia, as it is in China, Iran and other authoritarian states, but with a relatively light hand: Confident that not many Russians read human rights Web sites anyway, the regime never bothered to block all of them.

At least until now, this formula has worked. Indeed, the genius of Putinism has always been its ability to keep the apolitical masses ignorant of or apathetic about the regime’s opponents, while at the same time eschewing mass arrests. Putin understood this very well: The modern elite Russian doesn’t want to live in a pariah state, and he doesn’t want to be cut off from the outside world. He might not care if his foreign friends think Russia unpleasant, but he isn’t keen to be compared to North Korea either. Putin’s solution was to keep the pressure on serious opponents while studiously ignoring those he deemed un-serious. Political speech is controlled, but entertainment media are free. "

All this has worked up till now. And while the Washington Post and most Western media has focused on the embarrassment of Putin, a few commentators have noted that the Russian Orthodox Church has been caught up in this as well. Two articles that focus on the church will be posted in "Comments."