Venezuela stumbles as poor leadership and cheap oil take their toll

Venezuela may soon become the world's first nation in 2015 to see its government and economy implode. The South American country, led by Hugo Chavez for 15 years from 1998 to 2013 (with all the controversy the man brought on the world stage) is heavily dependent on its oil industry and the revenues it brings. Those revenues also allowed Chavez to champion socialism in his nation, and create economic alliances with other socialist-leaning or communist nations in the Western Hemisphere, though Teatree believes it fair to say, that simple anti-US and anti-capitalist perspectives provided most of the heat for these groupings.

Venezuela - with a population approaching 30 million people, immense oil reserves and therefore potential wealth for the whole nation (if distributed justly as in the case of Norway), high and untrammeled biodiversity across its landscape, and an avowed socialist governance for the past 16 years - should really be something of a powerhouse and inspiration to the world, and yet ... Graphic from davidjlynch.com

Unfortunately, today, Venezuela is teetering as oil revenues have plunged in the past six months, corruption remains rampant, and its leader (handpicked by Chavez and propped up in power by the few benefiting from the power-structure status quo), unable to articulate a pragmatic path forward.

President Maduro, to be fair, is in over his head, and chained to the ideology and memory of Hugo Chavez. As wikipedia notes, "A former bus driver, Maduro rose to become a trade union leader, before being elected to the National Assembly in 2000. He was appointed to a number of positions within the Venezuelan Government under Chávez, ultimately being made Foreign Minister in 2006. He was described during this time as the "most capable administrator and politician of Chávez's inner circle"."

Maduro was Venezuela's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2006 to 2013 and Vice President of Venezuela from 2012 to 2013. With his main asset being supportive of Hugo Chavez who in turn was able to talk big because oil prices were high and revenue flowing in, it was a very narrow base upon which to lead the nation on Maduro's own (about 95 percent of the money Venezuela earns from exports comes from its oil sales, according to an AP article on January 16).

As President, Maduro spent 2013 and the first half of 2014 making bombastic speeches in the form of "Hugo Chavez-isms," and even created a Ministry of Happiness. Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk

In the past six months, however, since oil prices have plunged, Maduro is confronting an increasingly dire range of options. For most of January, Maduro has gone on a world circling trip visiting nations that might lend him substantial funds to cover the lost oil revenues. He has visited Russia to meet with President Putin. In China, he secured a $20 billion infusion of Chinese investments, and in Qatar, he announced a new financial alliance. Maduro also stopped in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, but with not a great deal to show for it.

Returning home, Maduro received the equivalent of a ticker-tape parade organized by his supporters, even though while traveling, his government had to implement a new rationing system to curb out-of-control lines at stores. In addition, young protesters began blockading streets and opposition leaders were loudly calling for immediate change.

Another AP article reports, "Venezuela is seeing lines unheard of even in this shortage-plagued nation, with people lining up overnight to buy necessities like soap, milk and diapers. The state has deployed military guards to maintain order as stocks run low after long winter holidays.


A man leaves a private supermarket with disposable diapers, the long line are those waiting for their turn to shop. Photo from (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Many items have become impossible to find even on the thriving black market. At least one upscale Caracas hotel is no longer providing laundry service unless guests bring their own detergent. ...

Food Security Czar Carlos Osorio drew jeers last week when he said that the existence of long lines proved that Venezuela has plenty of food. Otherwise, he said, there would be nothing to line up for."


For those unable to afford shopping at private supermarkets, there are government supermarkets where prices are capped. This is a line near the Petare shantytown in Caracas, Venezuela. Apparently this line represents "success" for Venezuela's government, as there must be something in the store to buy ...

Beyond the immediate scarcities and unrest, there are those pesky loans already taken out by Venezuela, and payments are coming due. Default on a variety of financial instruments looms. And where it all ends, in this nation with enormous potential wealth, no one knows.

But let's end on a positive note - leaving behind the long lines that give testimony to scarcity and corruption in urban Venezuela, a couple pictures of the country's southern and western regions.


The website www.climatestotravel.com observes, "in the state of Bolìvar, we find the huge Canaima National Park, which is generally more humid and has greener landscapes; here we find incredible waterfalls like Salto Angel, 3,212 feet (979 meters) high, and Salto Kukenan, 2,211 feet (674 meters) high."


In Western Venezuela, the Andes mountains can be found, providing the contrast to the steamy jungles and plateaus in places such as the Canaima National Park. Photo from http://venezuela-pr.com/

Kenya and Venezuela - leadership changes

Well, let's start with Venezuela.

Venezuela, population 30 million, has the third largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico, and recently surpassing Argentina, is also the de facto leader of a group of socialist leaning nations on the continent.

Its president Hugo Chavez died last week after a long struggle with cancer, mainly treated in Cuba. As a Blomberg news article, noted "Chavez was unable to return to Caracas from Havana for a swearing-in ceremony to start his third six-year term on Jan. 10 [2013] after winning about 55 percent of the vote over Henrique Capriles Radonski in October..."

Where does the country go from here - is there a succession plan? Yes, the constitution calls for the Speaker of the National Assembly to fulfill the duties of the office if the president is unable to assume office. And once that occurs, a new national election should take place in 30 days of the change of leadership. The trouble is, Chavez's Vice President Nicolas Maduro has declared himself President after Chavez's death, and the Supreme Court, "packed with Chavez loyalists" agreed. Diosdado Cabello, the current Speaker of the National Assembly, a Chavez supporter but also a rival with Maduro, has backed off, but the process is not being followed.

Shown here with the late Hugo Chavez, the obsequious Muduro is now the top man in Venezuela.

In a bizarre twist, the government leadership has now declared that Chavez's body will be permanently displayed in the nation's capital, and given a new title, "Commandante Eternal." In the UK's Guardian newspaper coverage, "We have decided to prepare the body … so that it remains open for eternity for the people. Just like Ho Chi Minh. Just like Lenin. Just like Mao Zedong," said Nicolás Maduro, the vice-president who was due to be sworn in as president at sunset after the ceremony. ...


"Dozens of presidents, prime ministers and princes from around the world joined hundreds of thousands of pilgrims at the military academy in Caracas to bid farewell to a leader who simultaneously inspired, enchanted and repelled during his 14-year rule. ... Shown here attending Hugo Chávez's funeral: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Prince Felipe, Sebastian Pinera, Rafael Correa and Raul Castro." Guardian Newspaper

The Guardian coverage continues, "Disquiet has grown over the decision. Chávez expressed a desire to be buried in the plains of his youth, far from the capital. On Friday local media unearthed a clip of the president denouncing the practice of preserving and displaying cadavers in 2009. He made the comments in protest when Bodies Revealed, a travelling art and science show of dissected cadavers, visited Caracas. He closed it, citing moral concerns. "We are in the midst of something macabre," he said."

Even "The Bodies" exhibit has been referred to in the ongoing Chavez remains debate ...

And the actual opposition? (For what we've discussed so far is all within the factions of Chavez supporters). The October presidential candidate who lost, Henrique Capriles, upped the ante Friday, stating, ""Do you really need to abuse power to run for election?" he said at a press conference. Taunting the new president in an eerie echo of Chávez's own rhetorical style, Capriles added: "The people didn't vote for you, kid." and referring to the Supreme Court acceptance of Muduro's ascendency, Capriles denounced that ruling and called the inauguration spurious. "What the supreme court did I've qualified as an electoral fraud."

Capriles, stating an obvious, but perilous observation.

This blog post was about Venezuela after Chavez. But in case you are looking for a summary article on the Chavez legacy, try this one: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-05/hugo-chavez-rip-he-empowered-the-poor-and-gutted-venezuela Now, onward to another election in Kenya.

Kenya



Kenya, population 41 million, and East Africa's largest economy, held its 2013 presidential election last Monday. On Friday, after days of delays, Uhuru Kenyatta, 51,(son of Jomo Kenyatta, the first President of Kenya as an independent nation) won the office with a razor thin margin of 50.07%. By obtaining over 50% of the vote, he avoids a runoff with the next highest vote gatherer, Raila Odinga, 68, who happens to be the current Prime Minister.

Kenya's newly elected President, Uhuru Kenyatta

The complications of the story is that these two also were the two top candidates in Kenya's 2007 elections, which ended with massive voting fraud (or irregularities) and significant violence along tribal and political lines that ultimately resulted in respected world leaders flying in to help calm the situation. (The position of Prime Minister itself was created in political negotiations after the 2007 election in order for Odinga to assume a leadership role in the nation and thus calm tensions.) Uhuru Kenyatta was subsequently indicted by an International Criminal Court with crimes against humanity, charged with inciting 2007-election violence.

Kenyatta (left) and Odinga (right) both have been vocal in promoting a peaceful election this time.

To the nation's credit this time, citizens have overwhelmingly expressed their desire for peaceful elections, as have the candidates. And so far, so good. While Odinga has said he will challenge the results - which do have plenty of instances of alleged irregularities in voting counting, secure transport, etc - all leaders are still talking of avoiding violence.

Still, to have an indicted individual become president, places Mr. Kenyatta in a rarified and dubious circle. Just two countries have their leaders under indictment for war crimes - the other being the notorious Omar al-Bashir, President of Sudan. Western governments are in a bit of a pickle. The UK policy is to avoid contact with anyone indicted by the ICC, and most push hard and sincerely for open, fair elections with the outcomes being wild cards. (Reference Egypt...). This outcome is an example of another wild card - how do countries do diplomacy with Kenya now?

Factoids: Kenyatta is Kikuyu (Kenya's largest tribe), while Odinga is a Luo (Kenya's second largest tribe), and Kenyatta's running mate, William Ruto, is from the Kalenjin tribe, which has deep political ties stemming from former Kenyan president Daniel Arap Moi, the first Kalenjin to hold that position. It was this alliance of two powerful tribes (one small, one large) that pulled off a first round election victory in early March. US President Barack Obama's father is from the Luo tribe ...

While there were fears of clashes between the major tribal groups, the only violence during the voting process occurred in Mombasa where Islamist seccessionists attempted to push their agenda ...

No conclusions, just that Kenya's election has complications, but congratulations to date for respecting the rule of law, including the bizzare situation of Kenyatta now having to go to trial in The Hague, Netherlands, while governing his East African homeland.

Venezuela election Sunday has South American impacts

Venezuela is a country of nearly 30 million people, similar to the population of Canada, or California ... Lying on the north coast of South America, it is a state with extremely high biodiversity, with habitats ranging from the Andes mountains in the west to the Amazon Basin rainforest in the south, extensive llanos plains, the Caribbean coast in the center and the Orinoco River Delta in the east.

Venezuela, on the north coast of South America

Sunday, there is an election scheduled for the Presidency. On the one hand, there is Hugo Chavez, a strongman with leftist perspectives, and a fond desire to be considered a leader among a number of sister countries in South America. On the other, there is a formidable challenger in the form of Henrique Capriles Randonski. The outcome is certainly unclear, the election campaign itself has seen instances of violence already, and the possibility remains for much mischief at the ballot boxes on voting day. Chavez, in power for the past 13 years has a long history of overcoming adversities, including surviving a coup attempt in 2002, as well as persevering through his recent bout with cancer.

Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's leader since 1999

From one review, "Chávez describes his policies to be anti-imperialist and he is a vocal critic of neoliberalism and capitalism more generally, Chávez has been a prominent adversary of the United States' foreign policy. Allying himself strongly with the Communist governments of Fidel and then Raúl Castro in Cuba and the Socialist governments of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, his presidency is seen as a part of the socialist "pink tide" sweeping Latin America." Teatree adds that he is a firm and public supporter of Iran's President Ahmadinejad,

Chavez and Iranian President Ahmadinejad - firm ideological allies for over a decade

History and features

Venezuela was colonized by Spain in 1522 despite resistance from indigenous groups. It became the first Spanish American colony to declare independence eventually attaining it in 1830. For the past 182 years, it has had a series of caudillos (military strongmen) as rulers, along with intermittent democratic governments and military dictatorships. Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998, launching what he describes as "the Bolivarian Revolution" which led off with a writing of a new Constitution of Venezuela.

Venezuela consists of 23 states, the Capital District of Caracas, its main and capital city, and Federal Dependencies that have jurisdiction over the country's offshore islands. Interestingly, Venezuela is among the most urbanized countries in Latin America; the vast majority of Venezuelans live in the cities of the north, especially in the capital, Caracas. With the discovery of oil in the early 1900's, Venezuela has since become one of the world's leading exporters, and still has large oil reserves.

Click on image for full picture

Venezuela, the country ...

Caracas, Venezuela's largest and capital city with over 4 million residents, contains 13% of the country's total population.

In sparsely populated southern Venezuela, one can find some of the wildest country on a continent already known for its exotic and pristine landscapes - from the Amazon jungle to the rugged mountainous tip of Argentina.

Venezuela's oil industry, producing over 2 million barrels a day, gives the country financial independence, though the wealth does not seem to trickle too deeply into the population.

The contender

Henrique Capriles Randonski - in a campaign poster - projecting youthful vitality and purpose ... and fashion.

From the BBC, "Henrique Capriles Randonski is 40, single, a lawyer by training, and has so far won every election he has contested. He had been the front-runner ever since Venezuela's united opposition parties announced they would choose a single candidate to stand against President Hugo Chavez in October's presidential poll. As the energetic governor of the state of Miranda, Mr Capriles liked to stay in touch with voters, visiting shantytowns, often on his motorbike, to supervise projects and play basketball with the locals."

From a US blog, Huffington Post, a recent article observes, "Officially, Capriles is a social moderate and advocates Brazilian-style development. That's a shrewd strategy, since Venezuelan politics tends to skew to the left and the Chávez opposition ran into a lot of problems in the past when it was perceived as too fanatically right wing. Capriles says he supports Chávez-style "mission" programs directed at the poor, but would administer the aid more efficiently. The opposition candidate has some street credibility on this score, having previously conducted a zero hunger program while serving as Governor of the important provincial state of Miranda."

Capriles campaigning as the unified candidate by several opposition parties

It is in foreign policy that an upset win by Capriles would have the largest impact. Again from the US blog, which is no friend of conservative perspectives, "it pains me to say it, Capriles could represent an improvement over the present government in certain respects. Over the years, Chávez has chosen to ally himself with some very questionable and politically backward regimes, for example Belarus, known as "Europe's last dictatorship." Capriles by contrast would reconsider ties to Belarus, Iran and Russia.

Such moves would certainly ingratiate Capriles in Washington, and it is not a stretch to imagine that U.S.-Venezuelan relations might recover from their long thaw [does the writer mean "freeze"?? Teatree] under Chávez. If that were to occur, it is also reasonable to assume that the ALBA bloc of left-leaning countries, which is largely reliant and dependent on Chávez's own oil largesse, could really implode and leave a political vacuum in its wake. The most likely beneficiary of such an implosion would likely be Brazil, a country which has begun to contest U.S. dominance in the wider region."

Interesting politics in South America ...