Elections for the EU, Lithuania, and Ukraine

One could write about elections in one form or another each week all year: real ones, important ones, fake ones, rigged ones, disappointing ones. Then there are periodic changes in absolute monarchies, family dynasties, military takeovers, and various forms of anarchy and failed states. The world is really in a constant churn ...

Across Europe, there were elections this past week where European Union countries held votes to select their nations' representation in the European Union Parliament.

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The 28 member nations of the European Union. There are six additional countries in the midst of formal membership inclusions steps: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Turkey. Other countries, including Ukraine, wish to formally enter the long process of becoming EU members. Graphic from http://3cursa.wikispaces.com

From the EU website, "The EU is a unique economic and political partnership between 28 European countries that together cover much of the continent. The EU was created in the aftermath of the Second World War. From the EU website itself, "The first steps were to foster economic cooperation: the idea being that countries who trade with one another become economically interdependent and so more likely to avoid conflict. The result was the European Economic Community (EEC), created in 1958, and initially increasing economic cooperation between six countries ... Since then, a huge single market has been created and continues to develop towards its full potential.

What began as a purely economic union has evolved into an organisation spanning policy areas, from development aid to environment. A name change from the EEC to the European Union (EU) in 1993 reflected this. The EU is based on the rule of law: everything that it does is founded on treaties, voluntarily and democratically agreed by all member countries. These binding agreements set out the EU's goals in its many areas of activity: Mobility, growth, stability and a single currency.

The EU has delivered half a century of peace, stability and prosperity, helped raise living standards, and launched a single European currency, the euro. Thanks to the abolition of border controls between EU countries, people can travel freely throughout most of the continent. And it's become much easier to live and work abroad in Europe. The single or 'internal' market is the EU's main economic engine, enabling most goods, services, money and people to move freely..."

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A big EU parliament at work, headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. Photo from www.enet.gr

This week's elections, however, found plenty of Europeans voting for Euro-skeptics, with a few parties and individuals standing out. These new voices have serious reservations about the reach and scope of the organization, even as most member nations are fretting over Russian expansion in Ukraine and Georgia. In particular, there are high tensions over immigration, and financial bailouts for poor performing EU member states.

One of the more dramatic results was in France where Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party could find itself with 25 seats, up from just 3 seats in 2009.

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Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party, holds just two seats in France's parliament, but 23-25 in France's allotment of 74 seats in the EU. Photo from scenarieconomici.it

In the UK, the Euroskeptic UKIP party leading for the most seats of the 74 alloted to that country, with similar skepticism finding voice in other EU countries - Denmark and Hungary for two.

The EU parliament has approximately 750 seats, seemingly unwieldy, but once the votes settle in with firmer numbers, there will no doubt still be a majority in full accord with EU goals and vision. Germany in particular, with the largest number of seats (96) in the EU parliament, maintains its orientation towards European integration (though with tough financial standards).

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A Slovenian representative (left) speaks with German delegates at a recent EU gathering. The recent surge in EU skeptics will likely mean a "rightward" tack in the organization, where certain issues will be dealt with than others, but not a breakdown in the entity by any means. Photo from ec.europa.eu (Dr. Janez Potoċnik, Slovenia)

But there is unrest in the organization, somehow similar yet much more complex than the United States where 435 members of Congress representing 315 million are polarized (but at least speaking American english). Imagine the complexity of the EU with 500 million citizens, and dozens of languages. The EU in that sense is closer to India, with its dozens of languages, religions, and 790 seats (though outpacing either the US or EU, with 1.2 billion citizens).

In Europe especially, immigration concerns and strong nationalistic strains tend to bring up reminders of the dangers of far right ideologies - overt anti-semitism and fascism - so separating true concerns from these more extreme views will be the challenge.

On to the Ukraine

It appears that a billionaire who runs a chocolate industry in the Ukraine will be the next President of this fractured country. Petro Poroshenko, aka the "Chocolate King," won more than 50% of the vote, which avoided a runoff in June. A former economics and foreign minister, ironically, he served in the cabinet of his the previous ousted President Viktor Yanukovych. Mr Poroshenko has major challenges ahead, to say the least: armed pro-Russian separatists, and big natural gas bills to be paid might top the list.

New Ukraine President Poroshenko, with wife Marina behind to the right speaking to the press. Photo from www.veooz.com

On to Lithuania

In contrast to the surprise of the EU elections, and to the drama in Ukraine, there is a steadier election result in the small Baltic state of Lithuania.

Lithuania, with a population of just over 3 million, also has similar tensions between its native Lithuania population and a sizable presence of Russians - a legacy from the Soviet Empire days. Graphic from geography.howstuffworks.com

Dalia Grybauskaite won her second term as President of this country, and she ran her campaign on a tough stance towards Russian expansionism. As one article writes, "President Grybauskaite has welcomed the presence of NATO troops in Lithuania since the upheaval in Ukraine. The 58-year-old president has a karate black belt and promised during the campaign that she would not be intimidated by Russian aggression, saying "I'll take a gun myself to defend the country if that what's needed for national security."

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2nd term Lithuania President Dalia Grybauskaite has no illusions regarding Russia, based on her country's experience under Soviet occupation after WWII, and the most recent Russian generated uproar in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Photo from www.15min.lt

Another article notes the Presidential election came as Russia's annexation of Ukraine's former Crimean peninsula and "sabre rattling in the neighbouring Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have sparked deep seated fears in Lithuania .... Grybauskaite first urged and then welcomed the arrival of American troops last month as NATO stepped up its presence in the Baltic states, which spent five decades under Soviet occupation until 1991."

Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004 and thus has a much deeper security position than does Ukraine. She is referred to as the Iron Lady, similar to UK's Margaret Thatcher nickname in the 1980s. Though representing a small 3 million population entity, "iron" must necessarily be tempered.

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A small, but symbolic contingent of US troops arrived in Lithuania, shown here standing with a Lithuanian force. Photo from rt.com

Lots of change ...

Afghanistan holds first election transferring presidential power via the ballot box

While it often seems as though Afghanistan is a never ending stream of horrific news events - violence, corruption, spats, mistaken bombing raids, drone strikes - there was a rare burst of action over the weekend that refocused attention on Afghans themselves in a positive light.

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Afghanistan - toiling after nearly 40 years of uninterrupted conflict, internal, religious, and yet also as a pawn of geopolitical maneuvering. Graphic from beforeitsnews.com

In the middle of a civil war - Taliban with 10th century Sharia law as its governing vision vs a heavily propped up central government with 21st century (ok, perhaps 20 century) aspirations - an election was held that for the first time transfers presidential power via the ballot box.

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Despite threats and acts of violence from the Taliban that called the elections a Western sham, Afghanis turned out heavily to vote. Here, a line snakes along at a mosque/polling station in Herat, Afganistan. Photo from the NY Daily News

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In rural, mountainous locations, donkeys are a key element in voting. Here, local election officials are transporting ballots to the voting stations in anticipation of the election day. Photo from wtsp.com

Biggest election day decision has international implications

The current Afghan President, Harmid Karzai, is not running again, but has frustrated his NATO allies by refusing to sign a new security pact ensuring continued military support from Western countries. That decision, says Karzai (not unreasonably) should be left to the new President. And all 8 candidates running for the office have declared they are ready to sign.

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Current Afghan President Harmid Karzai, has become a familiar face to Western powers, an increasingly fierce critic of tactics used by Western military allies, and no doubt after 13 years of governing, ready to step down. Photo from WSJ

The issue is whether the new President will be officially installed - some say this will be months away yet due to the likelihood of runnoff balloting and other procedures - in time to prevent allies from beginning massive withdrawals in the fall. (And to Teatree, this all smacks rather heavily to the internal goals of armed forces and politics, rather than supporting the average Afghan ...)

Oh, and who are the candidates for the office of Afghanistan President?

In a recent BBC article we read, "There are eight candidates for president, but three are considered frontrunners - former foreign ministers Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmai Rassoul, and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.

Dr Abdullah has fought a polished campaign, Mr Ghani has strong support among the new urban youth vote and Dr Rassoul is believed to favoured by Hamid Karzai, our correspondent says. However, no candidate is expected to secure more than the 50% of the vote needed to be the outright winner, which means there is likely to be a second round run-off on 28 May."

So for faces and brief biographies courtesy of the AP, here are the top three:

Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk
ABDULLAH ABDULLAH: Having gained 31 percent of the vote as runner-up to Karzai in the disputed 2009 elections, Abdullah has an advantage in name recognition and political organization. He was a close aide to the late Ahmad Shah Masood, the Northern Alliance rebel commander famed for his resistance to Soviet occupation and the Taliban. Abdullah has a strong following among ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan's north, but his perceived weak support among Pashtuns — Afghanistan's largest ethnic group at 42 percent — could keep him from gaining a majority of votes, even though he is half-Pashtun.

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Photo from Gulf Times
ZALMAI RASSOUL: A former foreign minister, Rassoul has been national security adviser to the government and is seen as close to Karzai. He could end up being a consensus candidate among many political factions. A Pashtun like Karzai, he has a medical degree and is fluent in five languages, including French, English and Italian. He lived in Italy for many years with Afghanistan's deposed King Zahir Shah, who died in Kabul in 2007.

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Photo from www.khyberwatch.com
ASHRAF GHANI AHMADZAI: Ghani is a former finance minister who ran in the 2009 presidential elections but received just 3 percent of the vote. A well-known academic with a reputation as a somewhat temperamental technocrat, Ghani chairs a commission in charge of transitioning responsibility for security from the U.S.-led coalition to Afghan forces. Ghani also worked at the World Bank.

By the way, at least these three candidates, and Teatree assumes most of the other five, are equally comfortable wearing either Western or traditional Afghan attire. No implications are meant with the choice of photos.

So, on we go into the next few months of power transfer and serious crossroads for Afghanistan's future ...

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Always in the background are the fortunes of Afghani women - much is at stake for them personally as to rights and status. Photo from www.thewire.com

Kenya and Venezuela - leadership changes

Well, let's start with Venezuela.

Venezuela, population 30 million, has the third largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico, and recently surpassing Argentina, is also the de facto leader of a group of socialist leaning nations on the continent.

Its president Hugo Chavez died last week after a long struggle with cancer, mainly treated in Cuba. As a Blomberg news article, noted "Chavez was unable to return to Caracas from Havana for a swearing-in ceremony to start his third six-year term on Jan. 10 [2013] after winning about 55 percent of the vote over Henrique Capriles Radonski in October..."

Where does the country go from here - is there a succession plan? Yes, the constitution calls for the Speaker of the National Assembly to fulfill the duties of the office if the president is unable to assume office. And once that occurs, a new national election should take place in 30 days of the change of leadership. The trouble is, Chavez's Vice President Nicolas Maduro has declared himself President after Chavez's death, and the Supreme Court, "packed with Chavez loyalists" agreed. Diosdado Cabello, the current Speaker of the National Assembly, a Chavez supporter but also a rival with Maduro, has backed off, but the process is not being followed.

Shown here with the late Hugo Chavez, the obsequious Muduro is now the top man in Venezuela.

In a bizarre twist, the government leadership has now declared that Chavez's body will be permanently displayed in the nation's capital, and given a new title, "Commandante Eternal." In the UK's Guardian newspaper coverage, "We have decided to prepare the body … so that it remains open for eternity for the people. Just like Ho Chi Minh. Just like Lenin. Just like Mao Zedong," said Nicolás Maduro, the vice-president who was due to be sworn in as president at sunset after the ceremony. ...


"Dozens of presidents, prime ministers and princes from around the world joined hundreds of thousands of pilgrims at the military academy in Caracas to bid farewell to a leader who simultaneously inspired, enchanted and repelled during his 14-year rule. ... Shown here attending Hugo Chávez's funeral: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Prince Felipe, Sebastian Pinera, Rafael Correa and Raul Castro." Guardian Newspaper

The Guardian coverage continues, "Disquiet has grown over the decision. Chávez expressed a desire to be buried in the plains of his youth, far from the capital. On Friday local media unearthed a clip of the president denouncing the practice of preserving and displaying cadavers in 2009. He made the comments in protest when Bodies Revealed, a travelling art and science show of dissected cadavers, visited Caracas. He closed it, citing moral concerns. "We are in the midst of something macabre," he said."

Even "The Bodies" exhibit has been referred to in the ongoing Chavez remains debate ...

And the actual opposition? (For what we've discussed so far is all within the factions of Chavez supporters). The October presidential candidate who lost, Henrique Capriles, upped the ante Friday, stating, ""Do you really need to abuse power to run for election?" he said at a press conference. Taunting the new president in an eerie echo of Chávez's own rhetorical style, Capriles added: "The people didn't vote for you, kid." and referring to the Supreme Court acceptance of Muduro's ascendency, Capriles denounced that ruling and called the inauguration spurious. "What the supreme court did I've qualified as an electoral fraud."

Capriles, stating an obvious, but perilous observation.

This blog post was about Venezuela after Chavez. But in case you are looking for a summary article on the Chavez legacy, try this one: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-05/hugo-chavez-rip-he-empowered-the-poor-and-gutted-venezuela Now, onward to another election in Kenya.

Kenya



Kenya, population 41 million, and East Africa's largest economy, held its 2013 presidential election last Monday. On Friday, after days of delays, Uhuru Kenyatta, 51,(son of Jomo Kenyatta, the first President of Kenya as an independent nation) won the office with a razor thin margin of 50.07%. By obtaining over 50% of the vote, he avoids a runoff with the next highest vote gatherer, Raila Odinga, 68, who happens to be the current Prime Minister.

Kenya's newly elected President, Uhuru Kenyatta

The complications of the story is that these two also were the two top candidates in Kenya's 2007 elections, which ended with massive voting fraud (or irregularities) and significant violence along tribal and political lines that ultimately resulted in respected world leaders flying in to help calm the situation. (The position of Prime Minister itself was created in political negotiations after the 2007 election in order for Odinga to assume a leadership role in the nation and thus calm tensions.) Uhuru Kenyatta was subsequently indicted by an International Criminal Court with crimes against humanity, charged with inciting 2007-election violence.

Kenyatta (left) and Odinga (right) both have been vocal in promoting a peaceful election this time.

To the nation's credit this time, citizens have overwhelmingly expressed their desire for peaceful elections, as have the candidates. And so far, so good. While Odinga has said he will challenge the results - which do have plenty of instances of alleged irregularities in voting counting, secure transport, etc - all leaders are still talking of avoiding violence.

Still, to have an indicted individual become president, places Mr. Kenyatta in a rarified and dubious circle. Just two countries have their leaders under indictment for war crimes - the other being the notorious Omar al-Bashir, President of Sudan. Western governments are in a bit of a pickle. The UK policy is to avoid contact with anyone indicted by the ICC, and most push hard and sincerely for open, fair elections with the outcomes being wild cards. (Reference Egypt...). This outcome is an example of another wild card - how do countries do diplomacy with Kenya now?

Factoids: Kenyatta is Kikuyu (Kenya's largest tribe), while Odinga is a Luo (Kenya's second largest tribe), and Kenyatta's running mate, William Ruto, is from the Kalenjin tribe, which has deep political ties stemming from former Kenyan president Daniel Arap Moi, the first Kalenjin to hold that position. It was this alliance of two powerful tribes (one small, one large) that pulled off a first round election victory in early March. US President Barack Obama's father is from the Luo tribe ...

While there were fears of clashes between the major tribal groups, the only violence during the voting process occurred in Mombasa where Islamist seccessionists attempted to push their agenda ...

No conclusions, just that Kenya's election has complications, but congratulations to date for respecting the rule of law, including the bizzare situation of Kenyatta now having to go to trial in The Hague, Netherlands, while governing his East African homeland.

Libya election moves country forward, Syria begins disintegration

Across the restive Arab world, two countries are heading in different directions.

Libya, after its savage dethroning of the dictator Gadaffi (with some estimates of approximately 100,000 lives lost), has held an important election that has resulted in "liberal" secular political forces taking the lead. Perhaps tentative still, these initial results compare favorably to Egypt's continuing turmoil with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood along with other Islamist leanings. We shall see ...

Libya, set along the Mediterranean Sea, is an important oil producing country, and has emerged from 50 years of dictatorship under Colonel Gadaffi.

In the first nationwide free election in more than 50 years approximately 80% of those eligible turned out to vote for candidates filling 80 seats out of the 200 in the National Assembly (or parliament). The election commission said former interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance won 39 seats, or nearly half of those allocated for parties. The Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Construction party came in second with 17 seats. Smaller factions won the other 24 seats set aside for parties. Jibril's party showed particular strength in Libya's two largest cities - Tripoli and Benghazi - and won everywhere across the country.

A positive aspect of the election was the strong support for the liberal alliance across the country, and in particular, the two largest cities Tripoli and Benghazi. Libya's population of just 6.4 million is predominately centered in the north and along the coast, while the desert regions to the south are sparsely settled.

The balance of power lies with the 120 seats set aside for independent candidates, some of whom are likely affiliated unofficially with parties. (Teatree is unsure whether these seats will be filled via a separate election or some other process.) The 200-seat National Assembly is tasked with forming a new government to replace the NTC's Cabinet.

Men preparing to vote

Women in line to vote

Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance is in an initial commanding position for determining the country's future.

Syria, in stark contrast, has by all accounts, drifted into a deepening civil war. These past few days have witnessed sustained clashes in the capitol city, Damascus, the defection of more high ranking officials (a general and an ambassador), and just this morning the assassination of the country's Defense Minister and other inner-circle leaders.

Syrian fighting has now reached the capitol, Damascus, in sustained clashes. The country, with a population of nearly 21 million, is comprised of several tribal and ethnic groupings, with President Assad himself from a minority Alewite tribe.

As CNN reported, "A deadly attack on top Syrian officials Wednesday delivered the harshest blow yet to President Bashar al-Assad's regime, bringing the bloodshed into his inner circle, and even his family.

Four top officials were killed in an explosion at a national security building in Damascus, and some other people were wounded, state TV reported. Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha; Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat -- al-Assad's brother-in-law; Hasan Turkmani, al-Assad's security adviser and assistant vice president, and Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim al-Shaar were killed, the state TV reports said.

The attack, during a meeting of ministers and security officials, was coordinated by several rebel brigades in Damascus, said the deputy head of the opposition Free Syrian Army, Col. Malek al-Kurdi. The government described it as a suicide bombing. But al-Kurdi said a remote control was used to detonate an explosive device planted inside the meeting room."

Syria's Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha, among the top four reported killed.

Smoke hangs over Damascus neighborhoods

Reports state that Bashir al-Assad has pulled units from Syria's border with Israel, back into Damascus to protect the ruling family's power center.

Studied avoidance of public intervention by Western powers, public support from Russia and China, and active quiet support - the proxy war - from Hezbollah and Iran for Assad's regime, has resulted in today's dire picture. The US and others have raised specific concerns over his stockpiles of chemical weapons (don't use them, and keep them secure), and the more general concern over Al-Qaeda's taking advantage of the complex conflict.

Syria reportedly manufactures Sarin, Tabun, VX, and mustard gas types of chemical weapons to the amounts of several hundred tons per year. Syria is one of only 7 nations which is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Like Libya, Syria's population is not equally spread across the country, but concentrated in the west, with heavier populations in the fertile northwest along Turkey's border, and in the Southwest, in Damascus.